USD Longs Dropped, EUR Shorts Reduced - Rabobank
Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, lists down the IMM Net Speculators’ Positioning as at 03 May 2016.
“Despite the dovish position of the ECB, speculators have reduced their net EUR shorts for a run of seven consecutive weeks. Shorts now stand at just 13% of their December high and are at their lowest level since May 2014 before the ECB initially cut its discount rate into negative territory.
Net USD longs have continued to drop. Positions are at their lowest since June 2014 just prior to the sharp increase in USD buying in H2 2014.
JPY longs edged lower for a second consecutive week. They recently reached multi year highs suggesting that talk of FX intervention has not been taken seriously.
Net sterling shorts lost more ground. Last month they climbed to their highest point since June 2013. GBP remains vulnerable to political uncertainty ahead of the June 23 referendum on EU membership. Opinion polls suggest that the ‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’ camps are neck and neck.
Net CHF long positions slipped further. Last month they moved to their strongest levels since June 2015 despite the SNB’s reiteration of its threat that it could intervene to offset demand for the CHF.
Net AUD long positions have dropped on the back of the RBA’s rate cut and weaker inflation projections. CAD net positions held in positive territory for a fifth consecutive week. Oil prices remain a key influence.”