ECB Preview: No Material Changes - Rabobank
According to market consensus, the European Central Bank will leave monetary policy unchanged on Thursday. Analysts from Rabobank expect to material changes in ECB’s staff projections.
“We do not expect the ECB to change its policy stance on Thursday. The ECB is unlikely to implement additional measures so long as there are still previous decisions pending full implementation – i.e. the first TLTRO-II allotment, due on 24 June, and the start of corporate bond purchases (CSPP). This was, broadly speaking, also the message conveyed in the minutes of the 20-21 April meeting.”
“President Draghi may face questions about Greece, Brexit and how the ECB sees the recent stickiness in long-term inflation break-evens.”
“We expect no material changes to the ECB’s staff projections (but with the odds tilted towards higher near-term inflation).”