USD/JPY: Where To From Here? - Morgan Stanley

USD/JPY: Where To From Here? - Morgan Stanley

21 April 2016, 18:10
Vasilii Apostolidi

USDJPY should continue marching higher, supported by bullish risk appetite and yield differentials turning in favour of USD. A test of 112.50 seems likely with recent latest signs of Japan resuming buying in foreign debt markets.

However, we doubt USDJPY can establish a long-term uptrend from here as medium-term downside risks remain in place.

First, pension fund 1Q losses will likely lead to higher FX hedging ratios, leading to JPY demand.

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Second, the BoJ’s Kuroda effectively ruling out ‘helicopter money’, i.e., funding of a government spending package via the BoJ balance sheet; the remaining policy tools (private asset purchases via ETFs, cutting rates further into negative territory or enlarging the JGB purchase programme) only have a limited impact on JPY valuation.

Hence, we view the anticipated move to 112.50 as a correction within a longer-term bear market.

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