USD/JPY – Range-Bound Pattern

USD/JPY – Range-Bound Pattern

19 April 2016, 16:05
Vasilii Apostolidi

Pushing higher.

EUR/USD is approaching 1.1400. The pair is moving within an uptrend channel. Hourly support can be found at 1.1144 (24/03/2016 low) and resistance at 1.1465 (12/04/2016 high). Stronger support is located a 1.1058 (16/03/2016 low). Expected to show further increase.

In the longer term, the technical structure favours a bearish bias as long as resistance at 1.1746 ( holds. Key resistance is located at 1.1640 (11/11/2005 low). The current technical appreciation implies a gradual increase.
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Ready to bounce.

GBP/USD is riding downtrend channel near the hourly support at 1.4006 (04/06/2016 low). Hourly resistance is given at 1.4320 (04/04/2016 high). Expected to show further bounce back.

The long-term technical pattern is negative and favours a further decline towards key support at 1.3503 (23/01/2009 low), as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.5340/64 (04/11/2015 low see also the 200 day moving average). However, the general oversold conditions and the recent pick-up in buying interest pave the way for a rebound.


Range-bound pattern.

USD/JPY is trading between hourly support at 107.68 (07/04/2016 low) and hourly resistance at 109.90 (07/04/2016 high). The medium-term momentum is clearly bearish. Selling pressures are still on. Expected to show further weakening.

We favour a long-term bearish bias. Support at 105.23 (15/10/2014 low) is on target. A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems now less likely. Another key support can be found at 105.23 (15/10/2014 low).


Consolidating further inside downtrend channel.

USD/CHF is edging lower inside the downtrend channel without massive volatility. Hourly support can be found at 0.9499 (12/04/2016 low). Hourly resistance is located by upper bound of the downtrend channel and by 0.9788 (25/03/2016 high). Expected to show further decline as short-term buying pressures do not seem strong.

In the long-term, the pair is setting highs since mid-2015. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours a long term bullish bias.



USD/CAD is still riding the short-term downtrend channel, confirming persistent underlying selling pressures. Yet, the momentum seems to fade. Hourly support at 1.2745 (13/04/2016 low) has been broken. Hourly resistance is given at 1.2897 (14/04/2016 high). Expected to weaken further lower on support implied by the lower bound of the downtrend channel

In the longer term, the pair is now trading well below the 200-day moving average. Strong resistance is given at 1.4948 (21/03/2003 high). Stronger support can be found at 1.1731 (06/01/2015 low).


Bullish breakout.

AUD/USD 's bullish momentum is back despite recent bearish retracement. Resistance at 0.7737 (31/03/2016 high) has been broken. Hourly support is given at 0.7555 (rising trendline) then 0.7415 (16/03/2016 low). Buying pressures remains important as long as the pair remains above 0.7415.

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view. In addition, we still note that the pair is now above the 200-dma which confirms our view that buying pressures are increasing.



EUR/CHF has not a strong momentum. Hourly support can be found at 1.0863 (23/03/2016 low) while hourly resistance is given at 1.1061 (17/02/2016 high). Expected to show continued consolidation.

In the longer term, the technical structure remains positive. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).


Bullish retracement.

EUR/JPY remains weak despite bullish consolidation. Strong resistance area can be found around 124.67 (07/04/2016 reaction high). Expected to show further weakness.

In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support is given at 118.73 (25/02/2013 low). A key resistance can be found at 141.06 (04/06/2015 high).



EUR/GBP keeps on trading below 0.8000. Yet, ongoing momentum is still lively. Hourly support at 0.7925 (13/04/2016 low) has been broken. Hourly resistance for a short-term bounce can be found at 0.8117 (07/04/2016 high). Expected to monitor again resistance area at 0.8000.

In the long-term, the pair is currently recovering from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading well above its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.8815 (25/02/2013 high).


Growing bullish momentum.

Gold is lying in a short-term range-bound. Yet, the metal is edging slightly higher. Support is given at 1208 (28/03/2016). Resistance can be found at 1262 (12/04/2016 high). A break of support at 1182 (08/02/2016 low) is necessary to confirm deeper selling pressures.

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).


Sharp increase.

Silver has set up a one-year high and has erased the 16.00 mark. Resistance at 16.34 (28/10/2015 high) has been broken while support can be found at 14.79 (01/04/2016 low). Expected to see further bullish momentum.

In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.22 (28/06/2013 low) confirms an underlying downtrend. Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009). A key resistance stands at 18.89 (16/09/2014 high).

Crude Oil (in USD)
Crude Oil

Back to bullish?

Crude oil is now back above 40.00. Hourly support can be found at 37.61 (18/04/2016 low). A break of resistance at 43.46 (24/11/2016 high) is needed to confirm bullish momentum.

In the long-term, crude oil is on a sharp decline and is of course no showing any signs of recovery. Strong support at 24.82 (13/11/2002) is now on target. Crude oil is holding way below its 200-Day Moving Average (setting up at around 47). There are currently no signs that a reverse trend may happen.


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