In the view of Pernille Henneberg, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, the
Norwegian krone remains vulnerable in light of the slump of crude oil
prices and the prospects of rate cuts by the Norges Bank.
Key Quotes
“Brent crude oil dipped below USD40/bl and once again currencies of commodity exporting countries took large hits. In particular the NOK was the big loser yesterday and EUR/NOK broke above 9.50 in a very thin market”.
“In the short-term it is difficult to see what fundamentally should lift the oil price - especially going into next week’s FOMC meeting - and we would be careful in trying to catch the falling NOK-knife”.
“Noteworthy, the weakening of the currency is a strong argument against a December Norges Bank cut as the NOK is currently significantly weaker than what Norges Bank projected back in September”.
“Markets price roughly 8bp worth of cuts for the 17 December meeting; we expect an ‘unchanged’ call but admittedly the risk of Norges Bank delivering another 'insurance cut' has significantly increased with Brent crude trading USD8/bl below Norges Bank's latest projection”.
Key Quotes
“Brent crude oil dipped below USD40/bl and once again currencies of commodity exporting countries took large hits. In particular the NOK was the big loser yesterday and EUR/NOK broke above 9.50 in a very thin market”.
“In the short-term it is difficult to see what fundamentally should lift the oil price - especially going into next week’s FOMC meeting - and we would be careful in trying to catch the falling NOK-knife”.
“Noteworthy, the weakening of the currency is a strong argument against a December Norges Bank cut as the NOK is currently significantly weaker than what Norges Bank projected back in September”.
“Markets price roughly 8bp worth of cuts for the 17 December meeting; we expect an ‘unchanged’ call but admittedly the risk of Norges Bank delivering another 'insurance cut' has significantly increased with Brent crude trading USD8/bl below Norges Bank's latest projection”.
