Trade Ideas For EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UBS
The following are UBS' latest short-term (mostly intraday) trading strategies for EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD.
EUR/USD: The ECB disappointed the market yesterday and short-term accounts were quick to buy back. As this continued it forced more accounts to get involved. The pair touched a high of 1.0981 in New York before fresh sellers appeared. We have probably seen the EURUSD low for the year now, and for the overall trend to continue lower, this was probably a healthy correction. Play the intraday moves and if the pair gets up to 1.0980 we favour a short position.
EUR/CHF: initially rallied up to 1.0940 on a strong euro, but was then hit hard as USDCHF sunk.We prefer buying EURCHF dips, ideally getting long at 1.07.
AUD/USD: We think that AUDUSD should eventually come under pressure. EURAUD has come a long way and we think that there is still a need for position adjustments on the back of the ECB meeting. Now that the ECB meeting is out of the way, the market's focus will shift to the US dollar, and given the price action in AUDUSD over the past 2 weeks we don't think many market participants are short AUDUSD. We prefer playing the pair from the short side and would add into rallies between here and 0.7400, with a stop through 0.7525, targeting a move towards 0.7000.
NZDUSD: We think the pair is at the upper end of its range and would stick to shorts, with a stop through 0.6725, targeting a move towards 0.6450/0.6500.
