EUR/USD: Levels & Targets by United Overseas Bank

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.14 18:32

Trade Ideas For EUR/USD and GBP/USD by UBS Group (based on efxnews article)

UBS Group made a trading forecast for EUR/USd and GBP/USD for today and tomorrow:

EUR/USD: "traded bid last week and ended with a short squeeze. Flows were mixed but demand improved as the weekend got closer so it seems that the market is happy to play the pair from the short side, although conviction is low. All eyes are on the FOMC meeting this week, and activity could be limited until then."

GBP/USD: "Cable has found good support around the 200-day moving average and with the positive tone from the BoE last week, this bounce should continue. This is a busy week for data, with CPI, earnings, unemployment, and retail sales due. Buy dips, with a stop below 1.5350, for a test of 1.5500 and 1.5550."

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.15 07:44

EUR/USD Tech Review: 'correcting the to 1.11' by Nomura; 'it isn’t very clear' by Goldman Sachs (based on efxnews article)

Nomura made a forecast for EUR/USD stated about correction for this pair to 1.11 :

• "It is complex correction that is expected to complete via 2 a-b-c rallies, currently the latter stages of the second a-b-c are unfolding. A rally from near 1.13 to 1.14 can complete the larger wave-B."
  
• "S/t, support via old pivots and an uptrend line is between 1.1300/1288, more critical support below is 1.1254. Resistance is 1.1340 and then the recent pivot high at 1.1374."

By the way, Goldman Sachs noted that the setup in EUR/USD isn’t very clear:

• "A complete correction should retrace within wave 4 territory and near 38.2% of the preceding trend. In this case the high at 1.1713 is near enough to 38.2% at 1.18 and actually exceeds the 4 th wave (1.1533-1.1099). Moreover, an ABC extension from the March low targets 1.1818 (again, near enough?)."
  
• "At this point it seems reasonable to take a neutral stance until further signal develops."

Anyway, as we see from daily chart - the price is located near above 200 day SMA with 1.1372 resistance level to be ready for two scenarios to be implemented:

• bullish trend will be continuing by breaking 1.1372 resistance with 1.1713 as the next bullish target, or
• the price will be reversed to the bearish trend by breaking 1.11/1.10 support levels.
  

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.15 18:06

• past data is 0.7%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

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EURUSD M5: 30 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event: