Last week brought a sharp shift in market sentiment. The Democrats’ victory in the US midterms strengthened hopes for de-escalation around Iran and sharply reduced the geopolitical premium in oil. At the same time, US stocks came under heavy pressure – selling in AI and tech shares pushed Nasdaq into correction territory and reinforced the broader risk-off mood. Bitcoin remained under pressure from liquidations and spot-ETF outflows. Gold rebounded sharply from yearly lows on safe-haven demand, but Friday’s strong US jobs report supported the dollar and Treasury yields. The dollar strengthened, while oil and Bitcoin remained under pressure and gold retained part of its weekly gains.
💶 EUR/USD
The pair rose to 1.1273 midweek, but resistance at 1.1260-1.1285 held, followed by a reversal and a close near 1.1140. Faster inflation failed to support the euro: the ECB’s dovish tone and the rate differential still favour the dollar. Support: 1.1100-1.1125, then 1.1050-1.1070 and 1.1000. Resistance: 1.1170-1.1185, then 1.1215-1.1230 and 1.1260-1.1285. While below 1.1170-1.1185, the outlook is moderately bearish: below 1.1100-1.1125 opens the way to 1.1050 and 1.1000; above 1.1185 – to 1.1260-1.1285.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Last week’s scenario was confirmed: after rising to 81,125, Bitcoin fell sharply and closed Friday near 76,000. Support around 75,000 held, but spot-ETF outflows and long liquidations continue, while rising open interest increases volatility. Support: 74,800-75,200, then 73,000-73,500 and 70,000-71,000. Resistance: 76,800-77,200, then 77,600-77,800, 79,100-79,600 and 81,150-82,000. While BTC stays below 76,800-77,200, the outlook remains bearish. Holding 74,800 could return the pair to the 75,000-82,000 range.
🛢 Brent Crude Oil
Brent collapsed amid the US elections and hopes for de-escalation around Iran and Hormuz. The geopolitical premium fell sharply. After dropping almost 20% to 92.65, Brent rebounded and closed the week near 96.78. Support: 92.50-94.50, 88.00-89.50 and 84.50-85.00. Resistance: 97.85-99.00, 101.85-102.50, 105.50-106.25 and 109.00-113.00. While Brent remains below 97.85-99.00, the outlook is bearish towards 92.50-94.50. However, developments around Iran and Hormuz or renewed fighting could quickly change the picture.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold reversed sharply from the yearly low of 3,870 and rose above 4,146, but strong NFP data and a firmer dollar limited the advance; the close was near 4,071. Support: 3,970-4,020, then 3,870-3,900, 3,790-3,800 and 3,615-3,710. Resistance: 4,080-4,100, then 4,140-4,150, 4,200-4,250 and 4,300-4,350. While gold remains above 3,970-4,020, buyers retain the advantage: above 4,100 opens the way to 4,140-4,150; below 4,000 – to 3,900.
⚠️ Key Events of the Week
9 November – China inflation and Sentix, the Eurozone economic confidence index; 10 November – the week’s key event, US CPI, plus China’s trade balance and the Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions; 11 November – German CPI, while the US observes Veterans Day; 12 November – US unemployment data and UK GDP; 13 November – US producer inflation (PPI). For oil, developments around Iran and Hormuz remain the main factor.
📈 Likely trends: EUR/USD – moderately bearish below 1.1170-1.1185; below 1.1100-1.1125 → 1.1050 and 1.1000. BTC/USD – bearish below 76,800-77,200; holding 74,800 could return the pair to 75,000-82,000. Brent – bearish below 97.85-99.00 → 92.50-94.50, but the move depends on Iran and Hormuz. XAU/USD – bullish above 3,970-4,020; above 4,110 → 4,140-4,150.
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