Morgan Stanley made weekly forecast for EUR in
fundamental/technical mixed way expecting bearish EUR (based on efxnews article):
"We remain bearish on EUR over the medium term but see reason for some
support in the near term. EURUSD continues to be inversely correlated
with risk appetite. This suggests that as global volatility remains high
and risk appetite weak then there is reason to see EUR supported.
Draghi sounded very dovish at the recent ECB press conference so, should
the voices from the central bank suggest more aggressive monetary
action, then this would be a risk factor to our near-term view."
the technical point of view - EUR/USD is located below
100-SMA/200-SMA for ranging within 1.1713 key resistance and 1.0807 key
support levels for crossing symmetric triangle pattern for the
trend to be continuing. Intermediate support level as the nearest
bearish target is 1.0925, and the key bearish target is 1.0807. The
situation with EUR/USD may be described on the following way:
EUR/USD: Levels & Targets by United Overseas Bank (based on efxnews article)
United Overseas Bank estimated the nearest bullish target for EUR/USd as 1.1475 with 1.1250/55 as the bearish reversal level.
situation is mostly related to intra-day trading: as we see from H4
chart - the EURUSD is on bullish trend with 1.1379 as the next target;
and the reversal bearish target is 1.1253. It means the following:
Trade Ideas For EUR/USD and GBP/USD by UBS Group (based on efxnews article)
UBS Group made a trading forecast for EUR/USd and GBP/USD for today and tomorrow:
EUR/USD: "traded bid last week and ended with a short
squeeze. Flows were mixed but demand improved as the weekend got closer
so it seems that the market is happy to play the pair from the short
side, although conviction is low. All eyes are on the FOMC meeting this
week, and activity could be limited until then."
GBP/USD: "Cable has found good support around the
200-day moving average and with the positive tone from the BoE last
week, this bounce should continue. This is a busy week for data, with
CPI, earnings, unemployment, and retail sales due. Buy dips, with a stop
below 1.5350, for a test of 1.5500 and 1.5550."
EUR/USD Tech Review: 'correcting the to 1.11' by Nomura; 'it isn’t very clear' by Goldman Sachs (based on efxnews article)
Nomura made a forecast for EUR/USD stated about correction for this pair to 1.11 :
By the way, Goldman Sachs noted that the setup in EUR/USD isn’t very clear:
as we see from daily chart - the price is located near above 200 day
SMA with 1.1372 resistance level to be ready for two scenarios to be
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
EURUSD M5: 30 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event:
EUR/USD Into FOMC - BNPP (based on efxnews article)
BNPP is expecting for Thursday’s FOMC statement to be in dovish way and as a result - the EUR/USD should come to 1.10 to be near 1.1088 reversal support level located inside Ichimoku cloud and below 200 day SMA in the ranging bearish area of the chart.
For now - the price is located near above 200 day SMA to be ready for the bullish trend to be continuing, or to reverse to the primary bearish market condition with secodary ranging. If daily price crosses 1.1088 from above to below so we may see the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition.
Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD - SEB (based on efxnews article)
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken made an intra-day forecast for
EUR/USD. As we see from the chart below - the price is located between
100 SMA and 200 SMA for ranging market condition waiting for direction.
On daily base - the price is near above 200 day SMA for trying to cross
it from above to below for the ranging bearish condition to be started
in this case.
EUR/USD: Bears are happier below 1.1329. "A near-term
bearish impulse may or may have not yet started. If holding from
breaking back over 1.1329 and instead extending the drop below the
near-term "Equality point" at 1.1240 we believe in the former. Current
intraday stretches (shouldn't really become tested ahead of Fed) are
located at 1.1200 & 1.1370."
How To Trade The FOMC - Credit Agricole (based on efxnews article)
USD Post-FOMC by Major Banks (based on efxnews article)
The dovish FOMC was on Thursday at 19:00 GMT so the major banks are made a forecast about the USD after FOMC.
Morgan Stanley: "Long USD positioning is vulnerable over
coming days and perhaps weeks...But USD Impact Temporary. Our
structurally bullish USD view has never been Fed-focused. Rather, our
framework is built on the reduced investment attractiveness in much of
the rest of the world. Any setback in the USD is likely to be
short-lived in our view, providing a renewed buying opportunity against
EM and commodity-related currencies."
BofA Merill: "The lowering of the median dots raises risks around
a hike this year. But, the FOMC’s confidence in the outlook
(particularly in the labor market) underpins hikes later this year, and
therefore, the policy divergence theme we expect to support the USD. With
a 30% chance priced into the meeting, we would expect some near-term
pressure on the USD—particularly versus commodity-linked currencies
where USD positioning is largest—as the timing of the first hike is now
less certain. However, with any significant USD weakness likely to
incent other central banks (like the ECB) to ease further and given our
view for a December Fed hike, we see USD downside as limited here."
Nomura: "For the FX market specifically, Nomura doesn't think the
information received today will lead to a sustained unwinding of USD
longs versus G10 currencies—i.e., momentum could fade within a few
sessions. We have been flat in terms of USD exposure versus majors for
the last several weeks in anticipation of this outcome. But looking
ahead, the Fed is still operating with liftoff this year as the central
case, as the 2015 dots clearly signal. Bottom line: We still
believe that our 1.10 year-end target for EURUSD is likely to be
achieved under the assumption th that the Fed is able to raise rates by
the December meeting, which seems fairly likely."
SocGen: "The Fed’s decision to leave rates on hold was
not a surprise to a market positioned that way but the tone of the
statement and the new lowered ‘dot-path’ (median sees one hike this
year, 4 in 2016, 5 in 2017 and 3 in 2018 for a 3.375% Funds rate peak)
have dragged Treasury yields down. That is not
dollar-supportive. However, any bounce in risk assets will be
short-lived. A dovish and dithering Fed inspires little confidence. Once
EMinspired reduction in dollar long positions is over, we look for AUD,
NZD and CAD to weaken again, with NZD the most vulnerable. And the
biggest winner could still be the yen if the risk mood sours."
Danske: "We target EUR/USD at 1.10 in 3M and 6M and then up to 1.15 in 12M. We
forecast JPY to underperform among the G4 as rising expectations for
additional BoJ easing will support USD/JPY going into the 30 October
Bank of Japan meeting. Moreover, we note that the upside potential in
USD/JPY has increased following the past week’s substantial reduction in
specualtive short JPY positions. We target USD/JPY at 124 and 125 in 3M and 6M, respectively.
In contrast to EUR and JPY, GBP is also expected to perform on a 3M to
6M horizon supported by higher Uk interest rates as we still project
Bank of England to hike in February. In the very short term, however,
GBP is likely to come under pressure on low inflation prints in the UK
as due to BoE’s explicit concerns about the weak short term inflation
outlook. We forecast GBP/USD at 1.53 in 3M."
Trade Ideas For EUR/USD - UBS (based on efxnews article)
From fundamental point of view
UBS made a forecast for EUR/USD based on fundamental news event which was yesterday:"The overall reaction to the FOMC decision yesterday has been relatively
muted considering this was one of the biggest events of the year. The
market's focus can now shift elsewhere, and with concerns over China's
economy and a lack of confidence from the Fed, equities should remain
under pressure. The possibility of easing from the ECB in October should
cap the upside in EURUSD."
From the technical point of view
Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish market condition with the secondary ranging between 1.1440 intermediate resistance level and 1.1131 intermediate support level. The key levels for the bearish or bullish trend to be continuing are the following: 1.1713 bullish resistance and 1.0924 bearish support. The price may be ranging within 1.1440/1.1131 or within 1.1713/1.0924 levels but the ranging market will be continuing until the price will break one of the bullish/bearish key s/r levels.