GOLD Technical Analysis 2015, 16.08 - 23.08: bearish ranging within key levels

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.18 10:21

FOMC Meeting Minutes expectations by Barclays and September Fed hike (based on efxnews article)

Barclays made a forecast for high impacted fundamental news events which will be on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. The bank is telling that Federal Open Market Committee is already made a decision concerning a September Fed hike. Besides, Barclays is expecting the USD dollar to gain strength because "fears around China and weak commodity prices should keep pushing investors out of risky assets":

• "We do not expect a material change and we anticipate that the document will echo the latest comments from different FOMC members. We think they will want to keep options open and will probably signal the data dependency of their decisions ahead. We believe that the FOMC has already made up their mind about their next move, absent any market disruptive events in the months ahead. Our base case remains a September Fed hike."
• "Furthermore, we argued that the actual path of the normalization process will be more important for FX markets. The pace at which the Fed could tighten monetary conditions should depend heavily on price measures."
• "We expect the USD to be supported in the next weeks mainly due to external factors. Fears around China and weak commodity prices should keep pushing investors out of risky assets, benefiting the USD under different scenarios."
  

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.18 20:21

BNP Paribas: 2 Things To Look For At FOMC Minutes (based on efxnews article)

• "The key message will probably be that ‘lift-off’ is approaching and that we moved a step closer in July. A majority of FOMC participants probably still expected ‘lift-off’ to be appropriate sometime this year. As markets are already pricing this in, the minutes should present few surprises."
  
• "Two things to look for: (1) what “some” further labor-market improvement means and (2) why there was no progress report on being “reasonably confident” in the inflation outlook."
  

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.19 06:54

Chair Yellen is not speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium this year:

• "While our economist Michelle Girard thinks the Fed may disappoint on giving a “firm” signal, which would fit with their data dependent outlook, she sees a risk that the FOMC minutes begin to put a greater emphasis on the pace of hikes being gradual. A clear discussion along those lines may be a “soft signal” that an earlier start to rate hikes, giving more assurance that a gradual pace can be taken, is the preferred path of the FOMC’s majority."
  
• "Because the meeting took place before China’s devaluation, that discussion should not come up in the FOMC July minutes."
  
• "It’s also too early for that impact to be seen in the July CPI, which is the key data release tomorrow in the US ahead of the FOMC minutes. Our economists see the risks to the y/y rate as slightly on the upside – a “high” 0.2% m/m edge up in the core CPI index could push the y/y rate up from 1.8% to 1.9% y/y."