Danske Bank - 'Buy SEK, NOK, CHF And Sell NZD, USD, CAD this week'

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.30 19:30

Bank of America Merrill Lynch about Non-Farm Payrolls on Thursday (based on efxnews article)

• "The employment report is likely to show another solid month of job creation in June. We look for job growth of 220,000, a slowdown from the 280,000 pace in May but consistent with the recent trend.
  As a result, the unemployment rate will likely lower to 5.4% from 5.5%. With the continued tightening in the labor market, we think average hourly earnings (AHE) will increase a “strong” 0.2%, allowing the yoy rate to hold at 2.3%."
• "Within the components of the establishment survey, we expect private payrolls of 215,000 with the government only adding 5,000. Similar to last month, we expect the goods side of the economy to reveal weaker job creation, consistent with the softer trajectory of industrial production and capital expenditures. Moreover, we have yet to see the end of job cuts in the energy-related sectors. That said, there should be some support from greater construction hiring given the improvement in homebuilding. On the services side, we look for broad-based expansion in jobs with particular gains in leisure and hospitality and overall business services."
• "The household survey, which provides the data on the unemployment rate, should also show solid job growth. The three-month average has been a bit softer than nonfarm payrolls, with growth of only 166,000, but the six-month average has been consistent at 244,000. A wildcard is the change in labor force participation. After a sharp gain of 0.11% in May, we look for little change in June, given the volatile nature of the series. Smoothing through, the labor force participation rate has been essentially moving sideways since last fall, suggesting that a cyclical gain has managed to offset the secular downward pull."

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.01 11:43

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken - intraday outlook for EURUSD, USDJPY and USDCAD (based on efxnews article)

EURUSD. 'One day older and none the wiser. The market fell back to mid-body levels and stayed there. Outside 1.1110-1.1245 is needed to end a micro-term stalemate, but we guess this could come with the next headline about Greece.'

USDJPY. 'A key ref at 122.04 was yesterday violated, but bears could ask more of dubious price action around the 122-handle. Dynamic support in the bullish "Cloud" ("Kumo") could inspire some buyers to step back in, but resistance at 123.23 & near the 124-mark should temper any attempt to rally the market back towards key resistance at 124.38\47. Extension below 121.85 would target 121.16/07 next.'

USDCAD. 'The market used the high end of the short-term {Fibo­ adjusted) "Cloud" as support and a spring for extension higher. The 1.2563 "Double-top" is one step closer now and none of our short-term indicators indicate a stretch in the displayed timeframe perspective. Prior 1.2423 resistance is thought to act supportive now. Current intraday stretches are located at 1.2375 & 1.2560. A protective sell-stop on short-term longs could be lifted to breakeven (@1.2360).'