EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 25.01 - 01.02: Bearish Breakdown

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newdigital, 2015.01.24 13:51

Forex Weekly Outlook January 26-30 (based on forexcrunch article)

Greek Parliamentary Election; German Ifo Business Climate; UK GDP data; US Durable Goods Orders; US CB Consumer Confidence; US housing data; Rate decision in the US and in New Zealand; US Unemployment Claims; GDP data in Canada and the US. These are the most important economic releases for this week. Follow along as we explore these Forex market movers.

Last week’s central event was Draghi’s announcement of an extensive bond-buying program which will insert hundreds of billions in new money into the sluggish euro zone economy. The European Central Bank said it would buy sovereign debt from March till September 2016. Germany opposed this move, saying it will aid countries in debt to loosen economic reforms. The ECB plans to add more than 1 trillion euros by September 2016, to boost the Euro-area economy and fight deflation. However, since only 20% of purchases would be the responsibility of the ECB, critics warn that in case a euro zone government defaults, it would fall on national central banks, getting weak countries deeper in debt. Draghi said the QE could create the basis for growth, but the main responsibility lays on governments to implement structural reforms to sustain growth. Will this move help revive the Eurozone economy?

1. Eurozone Greek Parliamentary Election: Sunday. The national elections this week will determine whether Prime Minister Antonis Samaras will maintain his position or be defeated by Alexis Tsipras from Syriza party. Samaras said he can reach an agreement with Greece’s creditors by the end of February, while Tsipras said he can get an agreement by this summer keeping Greece within the euro area. Greece will not receive the next bailout money of 7.2 billion euros unless a review of the country’s progress in meeting the terms of its bailout is completed by Feb. 28.
2. Eurozone German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 9:00. German business confidence increased 0.8 points in December, reaching 105.5, broadly within market expectations. Falling oil prices and the weaker euro boosted German economy. Economic data showed improvements in the manufacturing and wholesaling sectors despite downturn trend in sales to Russia and sluggish reforms in France and Italy. Business sentiment is expected to reach 106.7 this time.
3. UK GDP data: Tuesday, 9:30. U.K. economic growth weakened in the third quarter, amid sluggish economic activity in the euro-area. Gross domestic product increased 0.7% in the three months through September, following 0.9% rise in the second quarter. The reading was in line with market forecast. On an annualized basis, the U.K. economy expanded 2.8% in the third quarter. Worrying signs of renewed stagnation in the euro zone may have a negative effect on UK’s. UK growth is predicted to be 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2014.
4. US Durable Goods Orders: Tuesday, 13:30. Durables orders plunged 0.7% in November after gaining 0.3% in October, while analysts expected a 3.0% jump. Likewise, core orders dropped 0.4% in November after contracting 1.0% in the prior month. Analysts predicted a 1.2% rise. Transportation declined 1.2% a 3.3% jump in October. The rise in autos and nondefense aircraft was overshadowed by a sharp drop in defense aircraft orders. Both Durable orders and Core orders are expected to gain 0.6%.
5. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00. American consumers were more positive in December amid strong economic data releases. Consumer sentiment climbed to 92.6 in December from a revised 91 in the previous month. 17.1% of responders noted a rise in job availability from 16.2% in November. 19.6% claimed business conditions were worse compared to 21.8 in November. The rise in confidence goes hand in hand with GDP growth and the constant improvement in the job market. A further increase to 95.7 is expected now.
6. US New Home Sales: Tuesday, 15:00. Sales of new U.S. homes contracted 1.6% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 438,000 units, indicating the housing sector still hasn’t benefited from the recent improvements in the job market. The reading was worse than the 461,000 rate forecasted by analysts and lower than October’s downwardly revised rate of 445,000. New-home sales remain far below the annual rate of 700,000 seen during the 1990s, as many Americans lack solid credit records to enable obtaining mortgages. Sales of new U.S. homes is expected to reach 452,000 in December.
7. US rate decision: Wednesday, 19:00. The Federal Reserve policy makers have repeatedly announced their intentions to raise rates. However the sharp plunge in consumer prices during December may detain such a move. Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, claimed that the sharp drop in oil prices was positive for the US economy boosting household spending, but other Fed policy makers prefer to see stronger inflation before voting to raise rates. The Fed’s focus is on core inflation to help assess underlying price pressures in the economy. Fed official said recently that mid-year would be an appropriate time to consider a rate rise. No change in rates is expected.
8. NZ rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has maintained its Official Cash Rate at 3.5% in December in line with market forecast. The central bank estimates output will grow above capacity and inflation will reach the 2% target by the end of the forecast period, which will advance a 40 basis points rate hike by early 2017. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler repeated his warnings about the overrated New Zealand dollar but noted that global financial market volatility had taken some pressure off the currency.
9. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits was higher than expected last week, indicating the holiday volatility sill continues. Jobless claims declined by 10,000 to 307,000, while expected to reach 301,000. Layoffs of holiday staffing make it difficult to assess the true state of the weekly jobs data. However, except for these temporary layoffs the US job market remains resilient at the beginning of 2015. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach 301,000 this week.
10. Canadian GDP: Friday, 13:30. Canada’s economy expanded more than expected in October rising 0.3% following a 0.4% gain in the previous month. Analysts expected a small increase of 0.1%. However weak oil prices are forecasted to weaken growth in 2015 by contracting exports and investment. The BOC projects a yearly growth of 2.2% in 2015 from 2.5% growth in 2014. However exports to the US are expected to increase as the US economy strengthens. Canadian growth is expected to contract 0.1%.
11. US GDP data: Friday, 13:30. The U.S. economy expanded 3.5% in the third quarter, indicating the US economy continues to improve and has no need for further QE. The GDP release was stronger than the 3.1% growth rate expected by analysts. Business investment and consumer spending dropped slightly from the second quarter, however, trade deficit contracted. Growth in four of the past five quarters reached 3.5% or above suggesting self- sustaining growth. Us economic growth in the fourth quarter is expected to be 3.1%.

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newdigital, 2015.01.24 17:54

NASDAQ forecast for the week of January 26, 2015, Technical Analysis

The NASDAQ as you can see broke higher during the course of the week, but did not manage to break above the 4800 level yet. This is an area that needs to be cleared in order for us to serve buying from a longer-term perspective, but we do anticipate that will happen. If we can get above 4800, we don’t see any reason whatsoever why the market will then head to the 5000 level. Pullbacks should continue to be buying opportunities as we believe that the 4600 level below is massively supportive.

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newdigital, 2015.01.24 18:16

EUR/USD forecast for the week of January 26, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair tried to rally at first during the course of the week, but with the European Central Bank expanding its quantitative easing program, we broke down below the 1.15 level and then crashed all the way down to the 1.11 region. We believe that the market is now heading to the 1.10 handle, and rally should be sold. It’s probably going to have to be done off of the daily charts or even lower time frames though, as longer-term charts don’t offer a lot of room between here and 1.10 at the moment.

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newdigital, 2015.01.25 10:38

Weekly Forex Forecast (based on dailyforex article)

EURUSD
The EUR/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but as you can see sliced below the 1.15 level. The market of course got a bit of a surprise from the European Central Bank and its massive expansion of quantitative easing. Because of this, it now looks as if the EUR/USD pair is going to head to the 1.10 level, which is the next major support level. That area could be a significant bounce waiting to happen, but in the meantime I believe that the market will continue to sell off every time it rallies. I look to short-term charts, and I believe that the 1.15 level above is a massive resistance barrier.

USDCAD

The USD/CAD pair broke much higher during the course of this past week, as the Bank of Canada had a surprise interest-rate cut. With that, the market shot straight up and we are now well above the 1.20 resistance barrier. In fact, we are getting very close to the 1.25 resistance level, which should cause a little bit of a pullback. If we get that pullback, we are looking for supportive candles in order to get involved as the uptrend is most certainly still in effect.

USDJPY

The USD/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but as you can see had turned around and ended up forming a shooting star. That being the case, the shooting star suggests that the market is going to go down to the 115 level possibly, but at that point in time I would anticipate seeing quite a bit of support. We could get a bounce from there, and I would be willing to buy that bounce. I have no interest in selling this market, as the uptrend is so strong. It’s probably only a matter of time before we break out above the 122 level, which should send this market looking for the 125 handle.

AUDUSD

The AUD/USD pair broke down during the course of the week, and most importantly cleared the 0.80 handle. With that being the case, the market looks as if it’s ready to continue going lower, and short-term charts will more than likely be the way that I continue to sell this market. This market is not reacting positively to the gold markets rising, and that tells me just how soft the Australian dollar truly is. I believe that the 0.75 handle will be targeted.

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newdigital, 2015.01.25 13:21

Forex - Weekly outlook: January 26 - 30

The euro fell to fresh 11-year lows against the dollar on Friday and hit a seven year trough against the pound, a day after the European Central Bank launched a large scale quantitative easing program to combat slowing growth and inflation in the euro area.

EUR/USD hit lows of 1.1118, the weakest since early September 2003 and was at 1.1203 late Friday, off 1.39% for the day. The euro ended the week down more than 3% against the dollar and the pair has lost almost 7.5% so far this year.

The drop in the single currency came after ECB President Mario Draghi unveiled a €1.2 trillion asset purchase program on Thursday. The central bank will purchase €60 billion in assets per month, starting in March and continuing until late 2016.

Draghi said the program would help return inflation back to the bank’s 2% target. Expectations had been building ahead of the ECB meeting after official figures showed that the annual rate of inflation in the euro area fell into negative territory in December, dropping 0.2%.

Draghi acknowledged the action the ECB took last year was “insufficient” to ward off the threat of deflation in the region.

EUR/GBP hit lows of 0.7428 on Friday, the lowest since February 2008 and was at 0.7471 in late trade, ending the day down 1.31% and bringing the week’s losses to 2.15%.

EUR/JPY hit a 16-month low of 130.95 on Friday and settled at 132.00, down 1.98%. The pair ended the week down 2.91%.

The euro was also under pressure amid uncertainty over the outcome of Greek elections, due to be held on Sunday, with anti-bailout party Syriza leading in the polls.

The dollar remained broadly stronger, boosted by the diverging monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve and central banks in Europe and Japan.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose to more than 11-year highs of 95.77 on Friday and was last up 0.69% at 95.32.

The dollar slid lower against the safe haven yen, with USD/JPY down 0.61% to 117.78 in late trade, amid weakness in U.S. equities following lackluster corporate earnings results.

The Bank of Japan held off on expanding its monetary easing scheme on Wednesday and instead expanded a loan scheme aimed at boosting lending.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s preliminary data on fourth quarter growth, while the latest euro zone inflation data is also due out on Friday. Wednesday’s Federal Reserve monetary policy statement will be closely watched, while New Zealand’s central bank is also to hold a policy meeting.

Monday, January 26

• The Bank of Japan is to publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.
• Japan is also to publish data on the trade balance.
• In Germany, the Ifo research group is to publish its report on business climate.
• The U.K. is to release private sector data on mortgage approvals.

Tuesday, January 27

• New Zealand is to publish private sector data on business confidence.
• The U.K. is to publish preliminary data on gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy’s health.
• The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, as well as private sector reports on consumer confidence and new home sales.

Wednesday, January 28

• Australia is to produce data on consumer inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
• In the euro zone, the Gfk Institute is to report on German consumer climate.
• The Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.
• Later in the day, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement. The country is also to release data on the trade balance.

Thursday, January 29

• Japan is to publish data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
• Australia is to publish a report on import prices.
• The U.K. is to publish private sector reports on house price inflation and retail sales.
• In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation and a report on the change in the number of people unemployed.
• Later Thursday, the U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as private sector data on pending home sales.

Friday, January 30

• Japan is to release a string of data, including reports on household spending and inflation and preliminary data on industrial production.
• Australia is to publish data on producer price inflation.
• The euro zone is to release preliminary data on inflation as well as a report on the unemployment rate. Germany is to report on retail sales, while Spain is to release preliminary data on GDP growth and inflation.
• Switzerland is to publish its KOF economic barometer.
• The U.K. is to release data on net lending.
• Canada is to publish its monthly GDP report.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on fourth quarter growth as well as reports on business activity in the Chicago region and revised data on consumer sentiment.

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newdigital, 2015.01.25 17:13

EUR/USD weekly outlook: January 26 - 30

The broadly weaker euro dropped to fresh 11-year lows against the dollar on Friday one day after the European Central Bank unveiled a large scale asset purchase plan, aimed at boosting slowing growth and inflation in the euro zone.

EUR/USD fell to 1.1118, the lowest since early September 2003 before pulling back to 1.1203 in late trade, still off 1.39% for the day. The euro ended the week down more than 3% against the dollar and has lost almost 7.5% so far this year.

The euro weakened across the board after ECB President Mario Draghi unveiled a €1.2 trillion quantitative easing program on Thursday. The central bank will purchase €60 billion per month of the region’s bonds, including first-time purchases of government debt, starting in March and continuing until September 2016.

Draghi said the program would help return inflation back to the ECB’s 2% target.

Expectations had been building ahead of the ECB meeting after official figures showed that the annual rate of inflation in the euro area fell into negative territory in December, dropping 0.2%.

Draghi acknowledged the action the ECB took last year was “insufficient” to ward off the threat of deflation.

EUR/GBP hit lows of 0.7428 on Friday, the weakest level since February 2008 and was at 0.7471 in late trade, ending the day down 1.31%, bringing the week’s losses to 2.15%.

EUR/JPY hit a 16-month low of 130.95 on Friday before recovering to 132.00 in late trade, still down 1.98%. The pair ended the week with losses of 2.91%.

The euro was also under pressure amid uncertainty over the outcome of Greek elections, due to be held on Sunday, with anti-bailout party Syriza leading in the polls.

The dollar remained broadly stronger, boosted by the diverging monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve and central banks in Europe and Japan.

The Bank of Japan held off from announcing fresh easing measures earlier in the week, despite cutting its inflation forecast for the year from April 2015, a move that reinforced expectations for further stimulus.

Speaking Friday, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said it could examine fresh options if further stimulus was needed.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose to more than 11-year highs of 95.77 on Friday and was last up 0.69% at 95.32.

In the coming week, investors will be focusing on Friday’s preliminary data on U.S. fourth quarter growth, while the latest euro zone inflation data is also due out on Friday. Wednesday’s monetary policy statement from the Federal Reserve will also be closely watched.

Monday, January 26

• In Germany, the Ifo research group is to publish its report on business climate.

Tuesday, January 27

• The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, as well as private sector reports on consumer confidence and new home sales.

Wednesday, January 28

• In the euro zone, the Gfk Institute is to report on German consumer climate.
• The Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

Thursday, January 29

• In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation and a report on the change in the number of people unemployed.
• Later Thursday, the U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as private sector data on pending home sales.

Friday, January 30

• The euro zone is to release preliminary data on inflation as well as a report on the unemployment rate. Germany is to report on retail sales, while Spain is to release preliminary data on GDP growth and inflation.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on fourth quarter growth as well as reports on business activity in the Chicago region and revised data on consumer sentiment.

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newdigital, 2015.01.26 05:34

Euro tumbles on Greek vote results, approaches 11-year low

• Euro falls to $1.1140 in early Australasian trade

• Greek leftist party Syriza poised for big election win

• Outright victory raises risk of debt standoff, more euro losses

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newdigital, 2015.01.26 13:33

EUR/USD – Elliot Wave analysis suggests first target reached says Goldman Sachs (based on forexlive article)

• It’s in some way the first major target for EURUSD, particularly from an Elliott Wave perspective, as it could theoretically complete/ satisfy the multi-year ABC correction that began back in ’08. It’s certainly possible to extend this C-leg, but sensibly speaking, it’s really important now more than ever to watch for signs of momentum loss
• In terms of what’s next below 1.12, naturally 1.10 is going to be psychologically significant. Besides that, there’s really nothing which stands out as being particularly strong until ~1.0286-1.0103. While that might sound extreme, it’s clearly an important pivot from a pure techs perspective as it includes an ABC from the ‘08 high and also 76.4% retrace from ’01 (while still fitting with the LT wave count). All in all, it’s clear this trend could eventually extend much further

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newdigital, 2015.01.27 05:48

EUR/USD Rallies to 1.1250 Following Greek Vote (based on marketpulse article)

The euro rebounded on Monday as investors took advantage of steep losses sustained during two days of dramatic selling, with the final push down to a fresh 11-year low coming after elections in Greece put an anti-austerity government in power.

Following the outcome of Sunday’s vote, the euro hit its lowest against the U.S. dollar since September 2003 at $1.1098 in Asian trading, according to the EBS trading platform EUR=EBS. Greece elected, as expected, left-wing leader Alexis Tsipras of the anti-bailout Syriza party.

Tsipras’s party won 149 seats in the 300-seat Greek parliament, setting Athens on a collision course with international lenders and potentially threatening its place in the euro.

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newdigital, 2015.01.27 10:40

Another Big Week Points to Major Currency Moves - How Might we Trade? (based on dailyfx article)

• US Dollar at elevated risk of volatility ahead of critical US Federal Reserve decision
• Forex volatility prices continue to trade near multi-year highs amid central bank activity

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newdigital, 2015.01.28 06:03

Good Artists Copy, Great Artists Steal: A 3-Month Outlook On EURUSD (based on seekingalpha article)

• The European Central Bank has finally announced Quantitative Easing.
• This will lead to a further increase in monetary supply from the ECB.
• This will cause the euro to decline to parity versus the U.S. dollar over the next 3 months.

During a multi-part PBS television program "Triumph of the Nerds: The Rise of Accidental Empires", which premiered in 1996, Steve Jobs mentioned the saying which he attributed to Pablo Picasso:

"Ultimately it comes down to taste. It comes down to trying to expose yourself to the best things that humans have done and then try to bring those things in to what you're doing. I mean Picasso had a saying he said good artists copy great artists steal. And we have always been shameless about stealing great ideas."

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newdigital, 2015.01.28 10:44

AUDIO - Currency Perspectives with Reggie Ringgold

The Euro showed a little strength, while the dollar took a breather! Reggie Ringgold joins Power Trading Radio to offer his thoughts on the trend for both of these currencies and much more. The duo take a look at how the recent Greek elections may impact the Euro going forward and possibly global currencies.

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newdigital, 2015.01.28 17:16

US Dollar May Fall as FOMC Fails to Fuel Interest Rate Hike Bets (based on dailyfx article)

• US Dollar May Fall as Status-Quo FOMC Fails to Fuel Rate Hike Outlook
• Aussie Dollar Gains as CPI Data Undermines RBA Interest Rate Cut Bets

A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see traders looking ahead to the US session for direction cues, with the spotlight pointing firmly to the outcome of the FOMC monetary policy meeting. Janet Yellen and company introduced a much-discussed change to the language of the policy statement at December’s sit-down, swapping out a pledge to hold rates low for a “considerable time” after the end of QE3 and replacing it with another promising to be “patient” before tightening. It seems unlikely that the cautiously slow-moving US central bank will opt to tinker with policy again so soon after making an adjustment, meaning today’s announcement will probably stick closely to the status quo.

The substance of the FOMC outcome and its interpretation by the financial markets need not align however. The markets seem primed for a hawkish result, if only because the US Dollar is hovering near six-year highs while speculative net-long positioning in the benchmark unit is at the highest since at least 1993. An outcome that sees the Fed in wait-and-see mode and fails to meaningfully advance the case for tightening may have a hard time sustaining such levels. In fact, it may serve to remind investors that the central bank has signaled no rate hikes will occur through April.

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newdigital, 2015.01.28 20:30

2015-01-28 19:00 GMT (or 21:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

• past data is 0.25%
• forecast data is 0.25%
• actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.

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"To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. The Committee also reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent."

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newdigital, 2015.01.29 06:11

EURUSD takes a look below the 100 hour MA. USDJPY also moving lower. Stocks falling (based on forexlive article)

The EURUSD has dipped below the 100 hour MA as traders debate more hawkish or more dovish. The RBNZ statement which was decidedly more bearish, may have also attracted some sympathy selling in the EURUSD in the process, but that is just an observation, not a statement of fact.

The 100 hour MA held support in early NY trading. The current level comes in at 112.90. The low extended to 112.81.  IF the price is to go lower, traders will want to see further momentum soon.  If not expect consolidation into the early Asian trading as traders reassess.

Meanwhile, the USDJPY is moving lower as well, as stocks move to lows for the day and flows lead into the JPY. The pair is moving  toward the 117.17 support floor. The pair  has been finding dip buyers against the 117.17-32 area over the last 7 or so trading days with quick reactionary buys.    Those looking for the dip to buy, this is your area to lean against judging from the recent history. However, be careful on a break. There should be some stops below the low.

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newdigital, 2015.01.29 15:13

2015-01-29 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Unemployment Claims]

• past data is 308K
• forecast data is 300K
• actual data is 265K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy

==========

"In the week ending January 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claimswas 265,000, a decrease of 43,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since April 15, 2000 when it was 259,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 307,000 to 308,000. The 4-week moving average was 298,500, a decrease of 8,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 306,500 to 306,750.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment ratewas 1.8 percent for the week ending January 17, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemploymentduring the week ending January 17 was 2,385,000, a decrease of 71,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 13,000 from 2,443,000 to 2,456,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,438,500, an increase of 8,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 3,250 from 2,427,000 to 2,430,250."

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, M5, 2015.01.29

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5

EURUSD M5: 44 pips price movement by USD - Unemployment Claims news event

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newdigital, 2015.01.30 09:38

EUR/USD stalls at key Gann level (based on dailyfx article)

• EUR/USD recovery stalled near the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s low near 1.1415 on Tuesday
• Our near-term trend bias remains positive on the euro while above 1.1210
• A push above the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s low at 1.1415 is needed to set off a new leg higher
• A minor turn window is seen on Friday
• A close under 1.1210 would turn us negative on the euro again

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1.1210.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
EUR/USD	1.1210	1.1260	1.1300	1.1415	1.1520

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newdigital, 2015.01.30 10:38

Trading News Events: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (based on dailyfx article)

The advance U.S. 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may generate a larger rebound in EUR/USD should the fresh batch of data highlight a slowing recovery in the world’s largest economy.

What’s Expected:

Why Is This Event Important:

Even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to raise the benchmark interest rate in mid-2015, a dismal GDP print may push the central bank to further delay its normalization cycle especially as it struggles to achieve the 2% target for inflation.

Nevertheless, improved confidence along with the ongoing recovery in the labor market may prompt a strong GDP figure, and a positive development may promote a further decline in EUR/USD amid the deviation in the policy outlook.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish USD Trade: 4Q GDP Fails to Meet Market Expectations

• Need to see green, five-minute candle following the GDP report to consider a long trade on EURUSD
• If market reaction favors a short dollar trade, buy EURUSD with two separate position
• Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
• Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit

Bullish USD Trade: Growth Rate Expands 3.0% or Greater

• Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EURUSD trade
• Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in reverse

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EUR/USD Daily

• Keeping a close eye on the RSI as it continues to flirt with the 30 level; rebound from oversold territory to favor a larger rebound for EUR/USD.
• Interim Resistance: 1.1440 (23.6% retracement) to 1.1470 (78.6% expansion)
• Interim Support: 1.1096 (January low) to 1.1100 pivot

Impact that the U.S. GDP report has had on EUR/USD during the last release

Period	Data Released	Estimate	Actual	Pips Change (1 Hour post event )	Pips Change (End of Day post event)
3Q A 2014	10/30/2014 12:30 GMT	3.0%	3.5%	+12	+19

3Q 2014 U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

EURUSD M5: 36 pips price movement by USD - GDP news event :

The U.S. economy advanced more-than-expected in the third-quarter, with the growth rate expanding another annualized 3.5% following the 4.6% expansion during the three-months through June. At the same time, Personal Consumption climbed 1.8% during the same period amid forecasts for a 1.9% print, while the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) narrowed to 1.4% from 2.0% in the second-quarter. Despite the better-than-expected GDP print, the Fed appears to be in no rush to normalize monetary policy as it struggles to achieve the 2% target for inflation. The initial reaction in EUR/USD was short-lived as the pair snapped back from the 1.2550 region, with the pair ending the day at 1.2602.

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EURUSD, M5, 2015.01.30

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EURUSD M5: 33 pips price movement by USD - GDP news event