Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for US Dollar, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD and GOLD: Gold prices streak this week with the precious metal rallying 2.51%

US Dollar Forecast - NFPs and FOMC minutes last week offered measures of balance, but net they draw the first Fed hike closer
Conditions are generally improving to the point where rate hikes will become likely. yet, there is still ambiguity in the timing of that turn to tightening – whether the “mid-2015” vow means June/July or Fed Funds futures are correct in pricing in the fourth quarter. In that uncertainty, the Dollar is bid because its yield is on track to still rise before most counterparts while speculators seeking return can ignore the rising cost of their exposure for a little time longer. Yet, as we close in on the expected range, one side will likely crumple.

British Pound Forecast - Interest Rate Expectations Drop, Sterling Hobbled
With the BoE scheduled to testify on the Financial Stability report next week, we may see Mark Carney and Co. retain an upbeat tone for the region as the committee sees lower energy costs boosting private-sector consumption. As a result, the BoE may adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy as it anticipates a stronger recover in 2015.

Japanese Yen Forecast - The Japanese Yen snapped a multi-week losing streak for the US Dollar as it rallied noticeably off of recent lows
A strong correlation between the Japanese Yen and the Nikkei 225/US S&P 500 tells us the next big USDJPY move could coincide with equity market turmoil. An important drop in the S&P Volatility Index (VIX) shows that few fear any such tumbles, but market conditions can and do change quite quickly.

Australian Dollar Forecast - Aussie Dollar to Rise if Jobs Data Cools RBA Rate Hike Speculation
US retail sales, inflation and consumer confidence figures as well as the Fed’s Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions are all due to cross the wires in the coming days. The growth side of the equation looks mixed considering the Fed’s assessment is likely to take a balanced view and sentiment is seen firming while retail activity is expected to slow. Though this casts a cloud of uncertainty over sentiment trends, the FX picture looks clearer as soft price growth undercuts Fed rate hike bets, sending AUDUSD higher.

Gold Forecast - Gold Could Find Support at 1187 Now
From a technical standpoint, gold continued to trade within the confines of a well-defined Andrew’s pitchfork off the March high with Friday’s advance challenging the upper median-line parallel. Interim support rests at $1206 (2013 low-day close) and is backed by the lower median-line parallel of a near-term pitchfork off the November lows, currently around $1171/80. We’ll reserve this region as our bullish invalidation level with the medium-term outlook weighted to the topside while above $1171. A breach above resistance targets objectives at $1230 and critical resistance at $1236/37.