A very ordinary Monday with market sentiment skewed towards risk-off. With the ECB meeting Thursday investors are taking time to reexamine strategies. Asia equity markets are broadly in the red highlighting the negative macroview...
The German economy did well in the month of August. It managed to overcome the weakness from the first half amid improved manufacturing and service activity while inflation remained below the 2% threshold thanks to more stable currency exchanges across the months of July and August...
It’s payroll Friday. The weakness due to a session of unique corporate events from July has reversed, setting the stage for a solid non-farm payroll employment increase of 220k in August. ADP reported a 163k rise in private employment, slightly below the 200k expected...
Switzerland’s economy is on the rise and appears unaffected by geopolitics. GDP is up 3.4% annually, a pace not seen in the last 8 years! The quarterly GDP advance of 0.7% remains above average (0.4%) for the fifth consecutive time...
Switzerland’s economy is on the rise and appears unaffected by geopolitics. GDP is up 3.4% annually, a pace not seen in the last 8 years! The quarterly GDP advance of 0.7% remains above average (0.4%) for the fifth consecutive time...
Emerging market currencies and world equities suffered another sell-off yesterday as investors remained worried that the crisis in Turkey and Argentina could spread to other vulnerable emerging market economies...
Asia’s fastest growing economy, India, is in good shape. Q2’s GDP grew 8.2%, its highest pace since Q1 2015. 2018’s GDP could end up rising 7.5%, in line with the Reserve Bank of India forecasts. The Indian economy remains less dependent on external demand for growth...
Fears of contagion related to the Turkish banking system continues to spread, pushing the Turkish lira downward as inflation continues to grow at a higher pace than expected...
Japan’s economic data this week remain subdued, with a continued slowdown in industrial production in July, consumer consumption flat and a slight acceleration in inflation for August (CPI annual figures at 1.20%, slightly above consensus at 1%; core at 0.90%), suggesting a weak bounce for Q3 GDP...
As Argentina falls into economic chaos, fears of default are well founded. The peso has fallen more the 45% against the USD this year and official inflation is over 25%. The central bank’s futile attempt to fix things hiked rates 15% to 60% and promised not to lower before December...
As Canada scrambles to reach closure on the North American Free Trade Agreement, CAN is wobbling. It gained (USD/CAD: -0.77% week-to-date), but now the trend is reversing. USD/CAD is bouncing off 1.2907 (29 August low) and expected to hit 1.3010...
The cable surged on Wednesday as it added 1.53% to $1.3029 after EU negotiator Michel Barnier said the EU would offer the UK a unique deal. The announcement made investors more than happy as it means that the UK would get at least a deal...
As the gongs sounded of a US-Mexico trade deal, broad USD selling slowed while Mexican peso rose, yet MXN was unable to hold high ground. While the downside risk of a failed agreement has decreased, confusion has increased...
The US dollar was better bid against most of its peers on Wednesday morning as global stocks treaded water. The dollar index edged up 0.05% to 94.78 as the single currency tumbled on the 1.17 resistance, while the Australian dollar fell the most within the G10 complex, down 0.40% on the session...
Two concerns pose downside risk to the optimistic outlook of the US Federal Reserve Bank. First is trade tension. America imposed tariffs on $16 billion of Chinese imports and China quickly retaliated. Yet a breakthrough in NAFTA negotiation between Mexico and the US seems likely...
Japanese inflation numbers continue to disappoint, rendering the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target by 2021 less likely. July’s nominal consumer prices increased by 0.90% (prior: 0...
Make no mistake: the Trump Administration is in crisis. Convictions of two Trump deputies and an indictment of campaign finance violations are real problems that carry jail terms. This is not hype, Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is building a legal sledgehammer...
Crude oil prices are bouncing from recent low, benefitting from a weakening dollar and from China’s threatened 25% duties on US gasoline, diesel and other refined products...
The US Federal Reserve Bank yesterday released minutes of its August monetary policy meeting: a 0.25% interest rate hike is signalled for September. Markets have reacted with confusion. Was the tone hawkish or dovish...
