Inflation in Turkey blew out expectations, with the core reading up to 24.5% and producer prices hitting 46%. Oddly, TRY is stable, which must mean markets are confident the Central Bank of Turkey will fix it. So the CBT must hike...
Strong economic data sent US yields higher across the board. 10-year treasuries surged to 3.225%, adding 0.12% overnight. USD bulls charged, bidding up the greenback versus developed and developing currencies alike. Worries of a slowdown trade tensions were nowhere to be found...
The Turkish lira took another hit on Wednesday amid disappointing inflation figures. Headline inflation measure broke another record in September as it climbed to 24.52%y/y, beating widely market’s estimate of 21.10% and up from 17.90% in August...
Market sat through a directionless market as no real issues took center stage. Global equities were mixed as movement was based on idiosyncratic events. Overall there remains a slightly bias to be risk off...
After a year of tense and extremely public negotiations Mexico, Canada and the United States have reached an agreement to modernize NAFTA. With more than 1,800 pages the USMCA (aka US, Mexico, Canada Agreement) is a daunting document...
The US dollar surged across the board on Tuesday morning as market participants expect Donald Trump to bring the trade war with China back under the spotlight. Even safe-haven currencies struggled to resist the broad-based dollar rally with USD/CHF rising 0.10% to 0...
We anticipate the sterling will see further selling heading into late October. Over the weekend, Boris Johnson attacked Prime Minister Theresa May's Chequers plan calling it "deranged' and "entirely preposterous”. The vicious attack indicated how divisive the subject remains...
Slow start to trading this Monday. EUR/USD dipped to 1.1574 as markets digested the weekend news flow around Brexit, soft EU CPI (Consumer Price Index) and the Italian budget. On Friday, Italian yields rose to a multi-year high of 3.20%, pressing the Euro lower...
Crude oil is about to end another week in green, as a barrel of West Texas Intermediate rose as high as $72.78. Despite anticipations of tighter supply, thanks to Iran sanctions and shrinking output in Venezuela, crude prices have tread water since Tuesday. The $71.45 – $72...
Concern over Italy’s budget are overwrought. The government in Rome has passed a budget with a 2.4% deficit relative to GDP – slightly higher than expected, considerably higher than 1.6%-1.8% recommended. Euro Stoxx 50 are lower while EUR/USD has fallen 1.40% to 1.1620...
Pivot (invalidation): 1.1670 Our preference Short positions below 1.1670 with targets at 1.1615 & 1.1585 in extension. Alternative scenario Above 1.1670 look for further upside with 1.1695 & 1.1725 as targets...
Canadian dollar optimism is eroding, as Sunday’s deadline for US-Canada trade talks approaches. US President Donald Trump confirmed his discontent, refusing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s request for a meeting...
Jerome Powell didn’t rock the boat during Powell the last FOMC meeting. As widely expected, policy makers raised the target band for the federal fund rate by 25bps to 2% - 2.25%, for the third time this year...
What would the Fed do – i.e. the US Federal Reserve in its monetary policy meeting that ends later today? Yesterday US consumer confidence came in at a 5-year high, driving hopes that GDP will sustain its current rate of acceleration...
Is Angela Merkel seeing the beginning of the end of her long run as German Chancellor? Yesterday’s vote for her party’s parliamentary head suggests as much. The Christian Union parties unexpectedly dumped Volker Kauder, a close Merkel ally, and instead elected Ralph Brinkhaus...
Budget talks in Rome end on Thursday, and there is risk that it could exceed investors’ expectations, putting additional pressure on the Euro. Early September estimates were 1.50% of GDP; recent estimates are 2% - still below the EU’s 3% limit...
Tightening supply is pushing oil prices higher. The USA has sanctioned Iranian crude exports, while at home capacity constraints and pipeline bottlenecks are tightening, and inventories have hit their lowest level since 2015. This, despite US crude production reaching an all-time high June...
Although Switzerland’s balance of payments increased CHF 2 billion to CHF 22 billion in Q2, we expect the trend to reverse in Q3, as the US-China trade war weighs on the franc, which has appreciated against the Euro and US dollar by -2% and -2.80% since the beginning of June...
Q4 should see a US slowdown: we suspect China retaliations will erode US growth. This means the tightening cycle is pretty much priced in: 80% probability of a December hike and another 0.8% of tightening over the next 12 months...
