Tomorrow Tuesday European Union ministers of European affairs will meet to discuss extending Brexit’s deadline beyond 29 March. Meanwhile, the UK government will for the third time try to pass its ‘deal’ through Parliament. If it passes, the government will ask for an extension to 30 June...
The Japanese economy continues to suffer from China’s economic slowdown and Sino-American trade tensions. So the Bank of Japan voted 7-2 to maintain its policy balance rate unchanged at -0...
Overall, it has been a relatively quiet week in the FX market, especially under the circumstances. Indeed, the lack of fresh news from the ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China has compelled investors to focus their attention on Brexit developments...
The Chinese economy continues to suffer under US tariffs and slower domestic demand, despite efforts by policy makers to provide economic stimulus. Factory output rose 5.3% annually but declined 0.4% from December. This is the weakest reading since 1995...
Currently trading at 0.85370, EUR/GBP is valued at a 22-month low, heading along 0.85510 short-term. Parliament is expected to start another Brexit vote at 17:00 GMT. The battle between to impose a negotiated Withdrawal Agreement continues...
More than two weeks after the USA extended deadlines, Chinese-American trade talks seem to be coming to an end. China is rightfully worried, because its growth target for 2019 has been reduced to 6-6.50% and might be reduced further; its budget deficit target of 2...
After a rough week, where the main event was Draghi’s dovish speech, the single currency has been trading on a firmer footing and erased partially losses. Since last Friday, EUR/USD rose more than 0.85%, from 1.1177 to 1.1276, as investors slowly digest the new outlook for interest rates...
Optimism takes over. Sterling is the big winner among G10 currencies as traders appear convinced that a breakthrough in Brexit talks is happening. EUR/GBP is trading at ranges not seen since May 2017 while the cable appreciated by 1.60% since the start of the week...
Despite notorious cryptocurrency hater Nouriel Roubini arguing the underlying technology of cryptocurrencies, blockchain, has “nothing to do with” the future of financial services, investment in the innovative tech is on the rise...
Despite poor payrolls data in the US and a drop in China’s auto sales, oil prices remain solid. US production is holding pace: current output of 12.1 million barrels per day could well rise to 13 million by year-end. We expect a spike in prices to be limited. Currently trading at 56...
Despite significant cost and hype, monetary policy has not driven growth and clearly driven asset bubbles. The relationship between markets and the real economy is loose at best, however, everyone is willing to overlook real weakness when stock prices are elevated...
Low interest rates, decent global growth, stable monetary policy from Europe and America and expansionary policy from Japan and China are all good for equities. Yet there might be overcorrection. The USA economy has slowed, so has the world’s, and the threat of recession has risen...
The single currency is under pressure: inflation stagnates while confidence indicators contract and January retail sales figures revised at 0.30% yearly and -1.40% monthly from initial estimates of 2.20% and 1.30...
The AUD/USD pair hit a two-month low as the Australian economy grew by 2.30% in December 2018, its weakest pace since June 2017. Expectations of 2.80% were greatly missed, suggesting the Reserve Bank of Australia’s growth outlook of 3% in 2019 should be downgraded soon...
On Wednesday morning, the US dollar was better bid against most of its peers despite the Fed dovish U-turn. The greenback rose the most against the Australian dollar, with AUD/USD down 0.72% to $0.7030, amid disappointing growth figures for the fourth quarter (2.3%y/y versus 2.6% exp. and 2...
The economies of France and Germany are slightly recovering. Italy’s annual GDP figures indicate a technical recession: mid-duration yields are starting to tick upwards with 10-years at 2.75%. That’s 1% below Greece (highest in EU), but Greek yields are falling while Italy’s are heading higher...
Today China’s National People’s Congress reduced its economic growth target to 6.00-6.50%, announced a policy of “easing for stability” and initiated meaningful tax cuts. Policy remains focused on fiscal stimulus over credit expansion...
The pound has staged a decent rally against the USD and EUR in the past weeks, and 1-month implied volatility has fallen further. But uncertainty on Brexit is extreme. Extension of Article 50, thus reducing the likelihood for UK crashing out of EU, is questionable...
Hurdles remain, but it looks like a Sino-American trade deal is on the way. China is offering reduction of restrictions, including tariffs on food, chemical and autos while the USA is reconsidering its sanctions on Chinese products in place since last year...
