Risk Appetite Recovers but JPY Remains Unstable USD in Correction Phase — Focus Shifts to U.S. PPI

Risk Appetite Recovers but JPY Remains Unstable

USD in Correction Phase — Focus Shifts to U.S. PPI

■ Daily Summary

While the Middle East situation remains uncertain,
ongoing diplomatic efforts have led to a recovery in risk sentiment.

However:

• Oil prices remain volatile
• Sudden headline risks persist

👉 Resulting in an unstable risk-on environment

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■ FX Market Overview

• JPY is strengthening despite rising equities
  → USD/JPY and cross-JPY pairs declining

👉 This reflects a reversal of “bad yen weakness”

Meanwhile:

• USD has shifted downward

👉 Safe-haven USD demand is becoming less effective

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■ Core Market Structure

👉
“JPY and USD are moving under different logics”

• JPY → reacting to risk sentiment and oil (unstable)
• USD → entering a technical correction phase

👉 This creates a lack of clear directional bias

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■ USD Situation

• Dollar Index → trend breakdown
• Death cross formation
• Break below 200-day moving average

👉
Uptrend has ended → correction phase underway

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■ Key Focus Going Forward (Critical)

U.S. PPI (Main Event Today)

• MoM: +1.1% (forecast)
• YoY: +4.6% (forecast)

👉 Key to assessing
inflation pressure driven by higher oil prices

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■ Scenario Outlook

① Strong PPI

• Inflation concerns resurface
• Yields rise
• USD rebounds

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② Weak PPI

• Inflation slowdown expectations
• Continued USD weakness

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③ Headline Dominance

• Data ignored
• Volatile, erratic price action

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■ Trading Strategy

• ❗ JPY → difficult to read (avoid overconfidence)
• ❗ USD → focus on selling rallies
• ✅ Wait for post-PPI reaction

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■ Conclusion

The current market can be summarized as:

👉
“A risk-on market that does not move cleanly”

• JPY and USD are decoupled
• Direction is unclear

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🔑 Key Focus

👉 U.S. PPI

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🎯 Most Important Factor

👉
Flexibility in adapting to scenario shifts