🗞️ USD/JPY Eyes 157 as U.S. Labor Data Takes Center Stage

🗞️ USD/JPY Eyes 157 as U.S. Labor Data Takes Center Stage

The FX market is seeing simultaneous dollar strength and yen weakness. During Tokyo hours, USD/JPY consolidated just below 157 before pushing into the 157 handle.

Behind this move is continued yen-selling pressure tied to expectations that the ruling coalition will perform well in the upcoming Lower House election — often referred to as the “Takaichi trade.” At the same time, the risk of rate checks and actual intervention is rising, leaving markets in a tense state.

🇺🇸 Broad Dollar Strength

This week’s upside surprises in both:

• ISM Manufacturing PMI

• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

have reinforced the dollar from a fundamentals perspective, signaling improvement in the real U.S. economy. In addition, sharp declines in precious metals have added a risk-off bid to the dollar.

• EUR/USD and GBP/USD are soft

• Cross-yen pairs remain firm, led by yen weakness

🇯🇵 Ongoing Yen Weakness — But Sudden Yen Strength Risk Lingers

• Expectations of a ruling coalition advantage → continued yen selling

• Repeated tests of major levels → rising intervention vigilance

• The broader trend favors yen weakness, but sudden yen spikes remain a constant risk

🇬🇧 🇪🇺 BoE and ECB Likely to Be Secondary Today

Today’s events include:

• Bank of England (focus on vote split)

• European Central Bank (Lagarde press conference)

Both are widely expected to hold rates steady. While GBP and EUR may react to voting patterns or FX comments, these events are unlikely to be the main drivers.

🎯 Today’s Main Focus: U.S. Labor Indicators

With NFP postponed until next week, today’s labor-related data carries greater weight:

• Initial Jobless Claims (forecast: 212K)

• JOLTS Job Openings (forecast: 7.25M)

Any surprise in either direction could amplify dollar volatility.

🧭 Trading Bias

✅ Summary

The market’s focus today is not on BoE or ECB policy, but on U.S. labor data.
With dollar strength and yen weakness, USD/JPY has moved into the 157s.
However, intervention risk keeps the tone cautious and tense.