ECB Meeting & US GDP Report – A Pivotal Day for the Euro
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ECB Meeting & US GDP Report – A Pivotal Day for the Euro

30 1月 2025, 07:39
Masayuki Sakamoto
Masayuki Sakamoto
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〇 ECB Meeting & US GDP Report – A Pivotal Day for the Euro

Following the US FOMC meeting yesterday, today's focus shifts to the ECB meeting and US GDP report. The euro is likely to see increased volatility, making it essential to closely monitor market movements and seize opportunities where possible.

■ US FOMC Impact – Passed Smoothly, but the Dollar Remains Heavy

As expected, the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25%–5.50%.

  • Key remarks from Fed Chair Powell:
    • "No rush to cut rates."
    • "Inflation is trending lower, which is a positive sign."
    • "We will assess more data before the next meeting."

Overall, Powell maintained a cautious stance, and since the outcome was largely priced in, the market reaction was subdued.
However, some viewed his comments as "hawkish-leaning," suggesting that future data could still shift sentiment toward further dollar buying.

■ ECB Meeting – Rate Decision & Lagarde’s Speech in Focus

Today’s main event is the ECB policy meeting.
Market consensus strongly favors a 25bp rate cut as the most likely outcome.

  • Key points to watch:
    • A rate cut is already priced in.
    • The focus will be on the "pace of future rate cuts."
    • How aggressively Lagarde signals additional easing will determine market reaction.

If Lagarde downplays the need for further cuts, the euro may strengthen.
Conversely, if she emphasizes the necessity of additional easing, the euro could see further downside pressure.

→ Expect high volatility in the euro following the ECB announcement!

■ US GDP Report – Growth Expected to Slow

The US Q4 GDP is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 2.6% (previous: 3.1%), indicating a moderation in economic expansion.

  • Personal consumption: Expected at +3.2% (previous: +3.7%), suggesting a slight slowdown.
  • GDP Price Index: Forecasted at +2.5% (previous: +1.9%), signaling potential inflationary pressure.

Key takeaways:

  • A weaker-than-expected GDP print could spark "growth concerns," leading to dollar selling.
  • Stronger-than-expected inflation data may fuel "inflation concerns," boosting the dollar as rate-cut expectations diminish.

With markets still digesting the FOMC meeting, the GDP report could provide a decisive signal for the dollar’s next move.

■ Key Economic Events & Market Drivers

Today's major economic releases:

  • Eurozone Q4 GDP
  • Eurozone Employment Data (December)
  • Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index (January)
  • US Q4 GDP (Preliminary)
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 19–Jan 25)
  • US Pending Home Sales (December)

Key Speeches & Events:

  • BoE Governor Bailey (Treasury Committee Hearing)
  • US Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report
  • Earnings Reports from Major US Tech Companies:
    • Meta (Facebook)
    • IBM
    • T-Mobile
    • Tesla
    • Microsoft
    • Lam Research

With the ECB meeting and US GDP report being the primary market movers, tech earnings could also impact risk sentiment and indirectly influence forex markets.

■ Trading Strategy

① Euro (EUR) – Watching ECB’s Guidance Closely

  • EUR/USD:

    • Hawkish ECB = Euro strength, Dovish ECB = Euro weakness.
    • 1.05 level remains a key support.
    • Be cautious of pre-announcement positioning and react accordingly post-release.

  • EUR/JPY:

    • Risk-on sentiment + Hawkish ECB = Euro rally.
    • However, strong yen demand could limit gains, so be cautious of sudden pullbacks.

② US Dollar (USD) – Direction Hinges on GDP Data

  • USD/JPY:
    • Weak GDP = Dollar weakness (Yen strength).
    • Higher-than-expected inflation = Fed rate-cut delay = Dollar strength (Yen weakness).
    • Watch 155.00 level for support/resistance.

③ Canadian Dollar (CAD) – Bearish Bias Maintained

  • The Bank of Canada (BoC) left rates unchanged yesterday, but
    • Dovish guidance suggests rate cuts are on the horizon.
    • CAD remains under selling pressure.
    • Potential short opportunities in CAD/JPY on bounces.

■ Summary

  • ECB Meeting: Rate decision & Lagarde’s speech will drive EUR movements.
    • Dovish ECB = Euro selling; Hawkish ECB = Euro buying.
  • US GDP Report:
    • Weaker growth = Dollar selling.
    • Stronger inflation = Dollar buying as Fed rate-cut bets fade.
  • Trading Strategy:
    • Be flexible with EUR positions post-ECB.
    • USD/JPY to follow GDP’s impact.
    • Short CAD remains a preferred trade.

With euro pairs likely to be the most active today, closely monitoring price action is crucial before entering new trades.

#ECB