📘 Direction Still Elusive After U.S. Jobs Data
— UK Inflation and Fed Remarks as the Next Triggers —
■ Market Overview: Weak Jobs Data, but No Dollar Capitulation
The U.S. employment report released yesterday was generally on the weak side.
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Nonfarm Payrolls
→ October revised lower, November higher — resulting in an inconsistent and directionless outcome -
Unemployment Rate
→ 4.6% (vs. 4.5% expected), a deterioration beyond market expectations
Under normal circumstances, this combination would have accelerated dollar selling.
However, concerns over data reliability due to the government shutdown limited the market reaction.
As a result:
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Initial dollar selling failed to gain traction
-
Position-adjustment-driven dollar buying followed
In the Tokyo session, price action has tilted slightly toward a firmer dollar.
■ Current Market Positioning: A “Cleanup Phase” Ahead of Major Events
With the U.S. jobs report now behind us, near-term catalysts have largely been exhausted.
Markets are already shifting into wait-and-see mode ahead of major upcoming events:
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Thursday: BOE and ECB policy meetings
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Friday: Bank of Japan monetary policy decision
Against this backdrop, today’s focus turns to mid-sized but potentially market-moving events:
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European session: UK inflation data
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New York session: Remarks from Federal Reserve officials
■ UK Inflation (November): Cooling or Sticky?
Market expectations are as follows:
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Headline CPI (YoY): +3.5% (prior +3.6%)
-
Core CPI (YoY): +3.4% (unchanged)
-
Services CPI (YoY): +4.5% (still elevated)
While headline inflation is expected to slow,
persistent services inflation and strong wage growth confirmed in yesterday’s UK employment data complicate the BOE’s policy judgment.
Market consensus for tomorrow’s BOE meeting:
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A rate cut is the base case
-
However, a narrow vote split is widely anticipated
👉 If CPI prints stronger than expected, sterling may prove relatively resilient rather than selling off aggressively.
■ New York Session: Fed Remarks to Shape Short-Term Dollar Direction
Diverging views within the Federal Reserve are likely to be in focus today.
Key scheduled appearances include:
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Governor Waller: Speech on the economic outlook
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NY Fed President Williams: Opening remarks at a conference
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Atlanta Fed President Bostic: Panel discussion participation
Coming immediately after the FOMC meeting, any comments addressing:
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The pace of rate cuts
-
Assessments of labor market cooling
could trigger heightened short-term volatility in the dollar.
Additionally, attention should be paid to rate- and inflation-sensitive events:
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U.S. 20-year Treasury auction ($13 billion)
-
Weekly U.S. crude oil inventory data
■ Short-Term Currency Outlook
◇ USD/JPY
-
Buy-back after the jobs report has lifted the pair into the low 155s
-
However, upside is likely capped ahead of:
-
The BOJ meeting
-
U.S. rate-cut expectations
▶ Range focus: 154.50 – 155.50
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◇ EUR/USD
-
Heavy tone following post-jobs dollar strength
-
Direction remains unclear ahead of the ECB meeting
▶ Consolidation around upper 1.16s to low 1.17s
◇ GBP/USD
-
Reaction highly sensitive to UK CPI results
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Inflation slowdown → renewed rate-cut expectations, downside pressure
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Sticky inflation → limited downside, potential short-term rebound
■ Summary: A Bridge Toward the Next Major Events
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The U.S. jobs report was weak, but failed to set a clear dollar direction
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Today’s key short-term drivers: UK CPI × Fed remarks
-
A sustained trend is likely to wait for:
👉 BOE, ECB, and BOJ policy meetings
Near-term conditions remain nervous, favoring a cautious, wait-and-see approach.
The market is clearly searching for its next decisive move.
