✅ [June 6 FX Market Summary] Weak ADP Fuels Dollar Selling｜All Eyes on ECB Meeting and Lagarde Press Conference !

✅ [June 6 FX Market Summary] Weak ADP Fuels Dollar Selling｜All Eyes on ECB Meeting and Lagarde Press Conference !

📰 Fundamental Highlights

• ADP Miss Triggers Dollar Selling
  The May ADP employment report came in below market expectations, making signs of a slowdown in the U.S. labor market more evident. This reignited selling pressure on the dollar. President Trump expressed his frustration with the Fed, stating: "Rate cuts are too slow!"
• Focus Shifts to U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls
  Following the ADP results, market attention has intensified ahead of the upcoming U.S. jobs report. Growing concerns over the core strength of the U.S. economy raise the possibility of a broad-based dollar decline, depending on the numbers.
• ECB Meeting as the Key Driver Tonight
  The ECB is expected to cut interest rates by 0.25%, marking its 8th cut, bringing the policy rate to the neutral level of 2.00%.
  Markets will focus on the pace of future cuts and Lagarde’s comments during the press conference.
  In addition, growth and inflation forecasts are expected to be revised downward, which could put pressure on the euro.
• U.S. Trade Balance Also in Focus
  Following a previous deficit of -$140.5 billion, the figure is expected to shrink to around -$66.0 billion.
  However, markets are monitoring this closely as a reflection of tariff impacts. A strong result may lead to a temporary dollar rebound.

💹 Technical Strategy Points

💵 USD/JPY

• Weakened by falling U.S. yields and soft data
• Support around 143.00–143.20; upside remains limited
  Strategy: Sell on rallies at 144.00–144.30, stop above 144.60

💶 EUR/USD

• Caution warranted around ECB decision and Lagarde’s press conference
• Support at 1.1380; resistance at 1.1450–1.1480
  Strategy: Position for potential range breakout

💷 GBP/JPY

• UK Construction PMI carries limited weight
• Awaiting comments from BoE members; price locked in a 193.50–195.00 range
  Strategy: Consider range trading or breakout positioning

📌 Key Economic Events

• ECB Policy Rate Decision (0.25% rate cut expected)
• U.S. Trade Balance (April), Initial Jobless Claims
• ECB President Lagarde Press Conference
• Canada Ivey PMI, U.S. Revised Productivity Data

💬 Trader’s Comment

“The weak ADP report sharply accelerated dollar selling. Today, we expect euro-led market moves, making post-ECB volatility a strategic opportunity. USD/JPY remains capped, and EUR/USD appears close to breaking higher.”