📈 +20,142 USD | September FOMC Rate Cut Seen as Certain
分析と予測

📈 +20,142 USD | September FOMC Rate Cut Seen as Certain

6 9月 2025, 15:22
Masayuki Sakamoto
Masayuki Sakamoto
0
16

 

📈 +20,142 USD | September FOMC Rate Cut Seen as Certain

Trading Performance Report (Sep 1–5, 2025)
Weekly P/L: +20,142 USD

🔎 Weekly Review

  • Gold: Continued to rise without any pullbacks → stayed out.
  • USD Selling: Shifted to selling the U.S. dollar, securing profits in AUD and crude oil.
  • Post-NFP Dollar Drop: Missed locking in about $30k in unrealized gains.
    👉 Lesson: Need to enforce “end-of-week position clearing” to improve profit-taking accuracy.

🌍 Macro Environment

  • U.S.: Labor market data (JOLTs, ADP, NFP) all came in weak → a September FOMC rate cut is seen as certain. Odds of three cuts by year-end are above 70%.
  • Japan: Rumors of an early LDP leadership election added volatility to the yen. Early in the week yen selling dominated, but by the weekend it tracked the dollar’s weakness.
  • Europe: French political risk weighed on the euro. ECB expected to hold policy steady at the Sep 11 meeting.
  • U.K.: Long-term yields climbed to their highest since 1998. Fiscal concerns pressured the pound, but the Finance Minister’s call for discipline helped ease the decline.

💱 Strategy for Currencies & Gold (Week of Sep 8)

USD/JPY

  • Key events: U.S. CPI (Sep 11), PPI (Sep 10), Michigan Sentiment (Sep 12). In Japan, LDP leadership race.
  • Levels: Support 146.0–146.5, resistance 149–151.
  • Plan: Favor selling rallies at 147–148. Weak CPI could drive a move toward 145; strong data could bring a 151 test.

EUR/USD

  • Key events: French politics, ECB meeting (Sep 11).
  • Levels: Support 1.1600, resistance 1.1740–1.1800.
  • Plan: Buy around 1.1650–1.1700. Above 1.18 → caution for profit-taking / selling.

GBP/JPY

  • Key events: Fiscal concerns remain. U.K. jobs, CPI, BOE policy decision ahead → possible position trimming.
  • Levels: Support 197–197.5, resistance 200–201.5.
  • Plan: Buy dips near 198 → take profit around 200. Fiscal risk makes shorting rebounds also valid.

GOLD (XAU/USD)

  • Current Price: 3586
  • Tone: Supported by dollar weakness + lower yields.
  • Levels: Support 3550 → 3520 → 3485; resistance 3600 → 3625 → 3650.
  • Plan: Buy dips 3550–3520. Stop-loss below 3485. Targets 3600 → 3625 → 3650. Zone 3485–3450 = reload area for core longs.

📌 Strategy Summary

  • USD/JPY: Sell rallies at 147–148; below 146 = further downside risk.
  • EUR/USD: Buy in the 1.16s; above 1.18 = profit-taking zone.
  • GBP/JPY: Buy near 198 → take profit at 200. Fiscal risks cap upside.
  • Gold: Maintain bullish view. 3485–3450 = medium/long-term accumulation zone.

📜 Afterword | “For Both Fitness and Trading, Sustainable Habits Matter Most”

Thank you for reading this week’s FX Weekly Report.

I recently read an article on how to incorporate exercise into a busy lifestyle. The key idea was “don’t overdo it—make it sustainable.” Short HIIT workouts, walking or playing ball games with family, or turning commuting into cycling or walking—these everyday adjustments support long-term health.

Trading is the same. Rather than sitting in front of screens for endless hours, it’s crucial to find a rhythm and strategy that suit you and are sustainable. Even when targeting short-term opportunities, integrating money management and scheduled breaks helps reduce stress and build consistent results over time.

In both health and trading, the secret lies in “sustainable habits.”
Let’s face the markets next week with a balanced mind and body.

See you next week!

#FOMC, rate, Cut