📈 Markets on Hold as Ukraine Developments Are Watched — Profit-Taking in Precious Metals Triggers a Pullback in AUD

📈 Markets on Hold as Ukraine Developments Are Watched —

Profit-Taking in Precious Metals Triggers a Pullback in AUD

■ Overall Market: Cautious Tone, Direction Still Limited

FX markets started the week cautiously, with traders closely monitoring progress in peace negotiations over Ukraine.

Talks between President Trump and President Zelensky failed to reach agreement on territorial issues, leaving markets stuck between hope and disappointment and waiting for clearer signals.

Currency markets are currently shaped by two offsetting forces:

• Gradual USD strength

• Yen buying on expectations of additional BoJ rate hikes

The result is a market that remains largely range-bound.

■ JPY: “Summary of Opinions” Supports Yen, but Effects Are Limited

The Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions showed several members leaning toward additional rate hikes, which briefly supported the yen.

However, the Cabinet Office emphasized the need to:

closely watch the impact on capital investment and corporate earnings,
and avoid unnecessary downward pressure on the economy.

As a result, expectations for a near-term hike did not materially change —
and the bout of yen strength quickly faded.

■ AUD: Profit-Taking After Precious Metals Rally Pauses

Recent AUD strength has been driven largely by the surge in precious metals:

• Silver and copper near record highs

• Tight supply dynamics

• Safe-haven demand amid geopolitical risks

This backdrop pushed AUD to year-to-date highs.

But today:

Gold and silver corrected, and AUD pulled back.

London session moves:

• AUD/USD: 0.6727 → just below 0.67

• AUD/JPY: 105.22 → around 104.66

• Gold: 4,549 → below 4,450

• Silver: 84 → into the mid-75 range

A wave of profit-taking hit metals — and AUD followed.

■ What Markets Are Watching Next

🌍 Geopolitics

• Trump–Netanyahu meeting

• Further headlines on Ukraine cease-fire talks

➡ A single headline could move markets quickly.

📊 Economic Data

• Hong Kong trade balance

• India industrial production

• U.S. pending home sales

➡ Individually modest, but weak data could trigger risk-off excuses.

🗣 Speeches & Events

• Remarks from President Trump

• U.S. weekly oil inventory data

➡ Watch for spillover via energy prices into FX.

■ Summary

✔ Ukraine peace efforts remain uncertain — markets stay nervous
✔ BoJ hike expectations support yen, but not enough for sustained strength
✔ Precious-metal sell-off triggered a corrective pullback in AUD
✔ Geopolitical news will likely drive upcoming volatility

At this stage, how markets interpret headlines matters more than the headlines themselves.