【Will Market Volatility Settle Down? — A Tense Tug-of-War Between Fear and Hope】

【Will Market Volatility Settle Down? — A Tense Tug-of-War Between Fear and Hope】

― Tariff Suspension and Focus on China Fuel “Dollar Selling” as Core Market Theme ―

■ From Tariff Shock to Relief — Volatility May Have Peaked

After weeks of market turmoil triggered by Trump’s aggressive reciprocal tariff strategy, a temporary suspension has been announced.

• Panic reached a climax with simultaneous sell-offs in gold and U.S. Treasuries, two major safe-haven assets

• Equities plummeted, prompting intervention by Treasury Secretary Bessent in a bid to restore market calm

• President Trump has signaled a pause in additional tariffs, triggering a sharp rebound in sentiment

📌 However, the underlying U.S.-China tension remains unresolved, and markets continue to swing between hope and caution.

■ Panic Buying Follows Panic Selling — Market Prone to One-Sided Reactions

• Stocks have stabilized, and gold has regained some footing

• But both panic-driven selling and hope-driven buying are showing signs of overshooting

• Traders should remain cautious of the pattern: “fear rebound = overoptimism”

🟨 Ongoing Risk:

• The Trump administration only paused tariffs, not scrapped them

• The potential for reactivation keeps volatility elevated

■ Market Focus Shifts to “Dollar Selling” as Tariffs Narrow to China

Markets are finding comfort in the narrowing of tariff focus solely onto China, reducing fears of a global trade war.

• Concerns over a cascade of global tariffs have eased

• As a result, safe-haven demand for JPY and EUR has stabilized

• However, bearish bias toward the U.S. dollar remains intact, with speculation of intentional dollar weakening by U.S. policy still circulating

📌 Current Core Market Theme:
→ Dollar weakness + mild return to “risk-on” sentiment

■ Today’s Key Events: Watch U.S. CPI and Central Bankers’ Tone

📊 Today’s Economic Schedule:

🗣️ Key Speeches to Watch:

• RBA Governor, BoE Deputy Governor

• Fed Members: Logan, Bowman, Schmid, Goolsbee, Harker

→ These are the first major comments post-tariff shock — focus will be on whether they adopt a “wait-and-see” tone.

■ Strategy Summary: Focus on Dollar Selling as Volatility Stabilizes

📌 Short- to Mid-Term Trade Setup:

✅ Summary