EURUSD Technical Analysis 2014, 30.11 - 07.12: Ranging Bearish With 1.2360 Support
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newdigital, 2014.12.01 06:41
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Down Trend Back in Play? (based on dailyfx article)
- EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 1.2710
- Support: 1.2360, 1.2213, 1.1974
- Resistance:1.2501, 1.2599, 1.2770
The Euro may have resumed the down trend against the US Dollar following the appearance of a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Near-term resistance is at 1.2501, a falling trend line set from mid-October, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the November 19 high at 1.2599. Alternatively, a turn below the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1.2360 clears the way for a challenge of the 23.6% level at 1.2213.
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newdigital, 2014.12.01 16:28
2014-12-01 15:00 GMT (or 17:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]- past data is 59.0
- forecast data is 57.8
- actual data is 58.7 according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for ГЫВ in our case)
[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
==========
U.S. Manufacturing Index Falls Less Than Expected In November
Activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector grew at a slightly slower rate in the month of November, according to a report released by the Institute for Supply Management on Monday, although the index of activity in the sector fell by much less than anticipated.
The ISM said its purchasing managers index edged down to 58.7 in November from 59.0 in October, with a reading above 50 indicating continued growth in the manufacturing sector. Economists had expected the index to drop to a reading of 57.8.
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EURUSD M5: 20 pips price movement by USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI news event
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newdigital, 2014.12.02 07:06
EUR/USD extends rejection to 200 hours MA at 1.2470 (based on fxstreet article)
The Euro extended its rejection of the 1.2500 area against the dollar an
now the pair is testing its 200 hours MA level at 1.2470.
Earlier in the day, the EUR/USD
rallied to test the 1.250 while reaching an intraday high of 1.2505.
However, the couple found a selling interest that sent it back to to
prices below 1.2500. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.2475, up 0.29%
on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.2508 and low at 1.2419.
The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish.
In the long term, the EUR/USD seems to be in the bearish trend as Morgan
Stanley commented that "Selling EUR/USD is" their "best trade for
2015." The banks favors "selling EUR/USD, targeting 1.12 for end-2015.”
However,
the story seems different in the short term as pair is trading higher
on Monday. According to Pablo Piovano, "the low-1.2500s yet remains
quite a tough barrier amongst EUR-bulls, although the ECB meeting on
Thursday carries the potential for either a breakout of that resistance
zone or a deep retracement to test recent lows in the 1.2360 region."
Below
the 200-hour MA level of 1.2470, the EUR/USD will find supports at
1.2460, 1.2425 and 1.2415. To the upside, resistances are at 1.2500,
1.2520 and 1.2530.
D1 price is on primary bullish market condition with ranging between 1.2599 resistance and 1.2360 support levels:
- The price is located below Ichimoku cloud/kumo with Sinkou Span A line as the nearest kumo border
- The price is moving along trendline for downtrend with ranging condition
- Nearest support level is 1.2360
- Nearest resistance level is 1.2567
If D1 price will break 1.2599 resistance level so the secondary rally may be started within the primary bearish with possible reversal to bullish condition
If not so we may see the ranging within bearish market condition.
- Recommendation for long: watch D1 price to break 1.2599 resistance for possible buy trade
- Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.2360 support level for possible sell trade
- Trading Summary: bearish
This is updated situation for EURUSD D1 timeframe:
- D1 price is breaking 1.2360 support level on open bar
- If D1 price will break 1.2360 support on close bar (we may see it tomorrow only because D1 = 1 day sorry) so it may be good breakdown (good to open sell trade for example)
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newdigital, 2014.12.03 16:37
EUR/USD Nears Week Long Range Break; JPY-crosses Continue Run (based on dailyfx article)
- EURUSD H4 MACD nears sell point below signal line.
- JPY-crosses see broad continuation in BoJ-inspired trend.
Event risk is at its lowest point of the week on Tuesday, but it's shaping up to be the 'calm before the storm' if anything. Numerous 'medium' and 'high' rated events will help unleash volatility starting tomorrow, including the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday and the November US labor market report on Friday.
Ahead of then, we're starting to see the ranges that persisted around the holiday trading conditions last week start to bend, just not yet break. One of these instances is occurring in EURUSD, where the closing highs and lows on H4 charts going back to November 27 are starting to be probed.
Elsewhere, the big theme at present is the ongoing Japanese Yen depreciation. USDJPY's triangle/flag going back to November 17 is on the verge of cracking higher; and the momentum in EURJPY and GBPJPY sees continuation higher as well, irrespective of event risk.
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newdigital, 2014.12.04 05:45
Key EURUSD Scalp Targets Heading Into ECB / NFPs (based on dailyfx article)
- EURUSD Weekly opening range break keeps near-term focus lower
-
Shorts at risk heading into interim support / key event risk
Technical Outlook
- EURUSD continues to respect TL resistance off the October high
- Initial support at 2012 low week close 1.2315 (now testing)
- Break eyes susbsequent support objectives at 1.2202, 1.2145 & 1.2095
- Key resistance now at monthly/weekly opening range high- 1.2500
- Daily RSI holding sub 50- bearish
- Momentum resistance trigger pending- breach to mark correction
- Event Risk Ahead: ECB Rate Decision tomorrow morning & US NFPs on Friday
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newdigital, 2014.12.04 11:50
Trading the News: European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision (based on dailyfx article)
EUR/USD may continue to mark fresh monthly lows over the next 24-hours
of trade should the European Central Bank (ECB) take additional steps to
further support the monetary union.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
Indeed, there’s growing speculation that the Governing Council will broaden the scope of its non-standard measures while implementing a large-scale quantitative easing (QE) program to better achieve its one and only mandate for price stability, and the single currency remains at risk of facing additional headwinds in 2015 as the outlook for growth and inflation remains subdued.
Nevertheless, the ECB may merely reiterate the policy statement from the
November 6 meeting as the central bank gauges the impact of the
targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations (T-LTRO), and we may see a
relief rally in EUR/USD should the Governing Council make an attempt to
buy more time.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Implements Additional Monetary Support
- Need red, five-minute candle following the updated forward-guidance to consider a short EUR/USD trade
- If market reaction favors a short Euro trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit
- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
- Implement same strategy as the bearish euro trade, just in the opposite direction
EUR/USD Daily Chart
- Will retain the approach to sell-bounces in EUR/USD as the bearish RSI break takes shape.
- Interim Resistance: 1.2600 pivot to 1.2610 (61.8% expansion)
- Interim Support: 1.2280 (100% expansion) to 1.2290 (38.2% expansion)
| Period | Data Released | Estimate | Actual | Pips Change (1 Hour post event ) | Pips Change (End of Day post event) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOV 2014 | 11/06/2014 11:45 GMT | 0.05% | 0.05% | -99 | -149 |
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EURUSD M5: 117 pips range price movement by EUR - ECB Press Conference news event
This is 135 range movement for now by this news event:
EURUSD M5: 135 pips range price movement by EUR - ECB Press Conference news event
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newdigital, 2014.12.05 05:29
EUR/USD Rallies to 1.24 after ECB Disappointment (based on marketpulse article)
The euro started trade on Friday higher against most of its peers but could struggle to extend gains if U.S. employment data due later in the day re-energize dollar bulls.
Investors were forced to trim bearish positions in the common currency overnight after the European Central Bank (ECB) disappointed some by not immediately expanding its stimulus program.
As a result, the euro jumped to $1.2457 from a two-year trough around $1.2279. It has since steadied at $1.2380.
It climbed towards a six-year peak of 149.12 yen set on Nov. 20, rising as far as 148.95 before losing a bit of steam to last fetch 148.27 yen.
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newdigital, 2014.12.05 10:25
Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (based on dailyfx article)
The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may spark a bearish reaction in
EUR/USD as market participants expected another 230K rise in employment
paired with an uptick in wage growth.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
A batch of positive developments may spark another near-term rally in
the greenback especially as a growing number of Fed officials show a
greater willingness to normalize monetary policy in 2015.
However, the employment report may disappoint amid the ongoing slack in
the labor market, and the greenback may face a larger correction over
the near-term as a weaker-than-expected NFP print drags on interest rate
expectations.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: Strong Job/Wage Growth Boosts Interest Rate Expectations
- Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
- If market reaction favors a long dollar position, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
- Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
EUR/USD Daily
- Interim Resistance: 1.2600 pivot to 1.2610 (61.8% expansion)
- Interim Support: 1.2280 (100% expansion) to 1.2290 (38.2% expansion)
| Period | Data Released | Estimate | Actual | Pips Change (1 Hour post event ) | Pips Change (End of Day post event) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OCT 2014 | 11/07/2014 13:30 GMT | 235K | 214K | +21 | +66 |
October 2014 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
EURUSD M5: 83 pips pips range price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
GBPUSD M5: 70 pips range price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
USDCAD M5: 99 pips price range movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
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EURUSD M5: 87 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
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D1 price is on primary bullish market condition with ranging between 1.2599 resistance and 1.2360 support levels:
W1 price is on primary bullish market condition with the secondary rally just started on open W1 bar.
MN price is on bearish breakout by breaking 1.2485 support level with Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator crossing the price from above to below on open MN1 bar.
If D1 price will break 1.2360 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing
If D1 price will break 1.2599 resistance level so the secondary rally may be started within the primary bearish with possible reversal to bullish condition
If not so we may see the ranging within bearish market condition.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on EURUSD price movement for this coming week)
2014-12-01 08:15 GMT (or 10:15 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish Manufacturing PMI]
2014-12-01 01:00 GMT (or 03:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]
2014-12-02 08:00 GMT (or 10:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change]
2014-12-01 01:45 GMT (or 03:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI]
2014-12-01 15:00 GMT (or 17:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
2014-12-05 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on EURUSD price movement
SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : ranging