Forecasts of the Economic Calendar MQL5

[emmpiiee]

Hi all, 

I was wondering about the forecast numbers presented in the economic calendar of MQL5 (and MQL4). 
Which news site or forecasts or logic is used to create these forecasts? 

If I compare some forecast values of economic calendars I often see that the forecasts of MQL5 are not comparable with other distributors. However the forecasts of the other distributor are often aligned. 

See for instance the news item of today (10/31/2023): 

CB Consumer confidence index

- MQL5 forecast = 104.5 (https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar)

- ForexFactory forecast = 100.5 (https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar)

- ForexProTools = 100 (https://ec.forexprostools.com/)

- Tradingeconomics = 100 (https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar)

However I have many other (also historical) examples, see for instance:

- "2023.05.02 17:00:00" - JOLTS Job openings (MQL5 forecast -1,811M against other forecast 9,740M) (!)

- "2023.04.04 17:00:00" - JOLTS Job openings (MQL5 forecast 0,783M against other forecast 10,490M) (!)

-"2022.07.06 17:00:00" - JOLTS Job openings (MQL5 forecast 11,768M against other forecast 11,050M) AND ISM Non-manufacturing PMI  (MQL5 forecast 57.7 against other forecast 53.9)

- "2021.03.31 15:15:00" - ADP NONfarm Employment Change  (MQL5 forecast -238 against other forecast 552) (!) 

Is there a way to have the forecast values better aligned with other distributors? After all, that is probably the real consensus.. 

Kind regards, 

Emma

[Sergey Golubev]

All calendars are very different onces -

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

All about Calendar tab and Macro Economic Events.

Sergey Golubev, 2022.12.21 07:55

mql5 news calendar was build by itself without taking any news/impacts/etc from the other news calendars.
Because news calendars are very different ones: there are informational calendars, and there are tradable calendar which we can trade news events with them, and so on.

So, it is the normal sotuation when the impact of some news event is different from one calendar to an other one.

...

It is not good if one calendar is copying the forecasting values and impacts from the other calendar; because the serious calendars want to be independent ones to make their own research related to impacts of news events and forecasting values.

And there are trading calendars (calendars which we can trade as news trading), and there are informational calendars.

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

News Trading /Fundamentals using MT5

Sergey Golubev, 2022.09.21 20:12

There is some "official" forecast (as a consensus; nfp as an example), and there are some forecasts which every calendar are doing.
I mean: there are informational calendars, and there are ... such as "trading calendars" where we can trade the news events with.

As to me so I prefer to place two pending orders (buy or sell) with 20 pips between them ...
And there is some NewsTrader EA (free by source code here on the forum, for MT4 ... could not find it now ... I can find it later sorry) which I used for the long time for trading news events (yes, I traded news events for the long time).

Yes, this MQL5 calendar is informational one.
I just hope that it will become the 'trading news events calendar', and if yes - it will be the best calendar for me.

[emmpiiee]

Thanks for the quick reply. Interesting!

If MQL5 would at some point start creating a trading news event calendar, I think it would have a lot of advantages. 
I always aim to create my EAs and indicators with MQL5 code and information only (so no external sources or code). However, if I wish to implement a trade calendar I currently might need to make an exception.

Thanks!!

[Lorentzos Roussos]

emmpiiee #:

Thanks for the quick reply. Interesting!

If MQL5 would at some point start creating a trading news event calendar, I think it would have a lot of advantages. 
I always aim to create my EAs and indicators with MQL5 code and information only (so no external sources or code). However, if I wish to implement a trade calendar I currently might need to make an exception.

Thanks!!

it has

https://www.mql5.com/en/docs/calendar

[emmpiiee]

Lorentzos Roussos #:

it has

https://www.mql5.com/en/docs/calendar

Yes, however this calendar has the issue of the forecasts that are often non-comparable to other distributors (see initial post). Right?

As Sergey mentioned, this may be possible due to the fact that the calendar of MQL5 is self-contained AND the different types of calendars ( trade vs. informational ). 

[Lorentzos Roussos]

emmpiiee #:

Yes, however this calendar has the issue of the forecasts that are often non-comparable to other distributors (see initial post). Right?

As Sergey mentioned, this may be possible due to the fact that the calendar of MQL5 is self-contained AND the different types of calendars ( trade vs. informational ). 

they are wrong sometimes indeed

The answer is use the other distributors , its not forbidden in the market . (i mean , theres EAs that do it)

I remember a case of a client of a seller asking for a refund because the EA opened a trade in the wrong direction (the ea read the mql5 calendar with a wrong value)