Press review - page 530

[Sergey Golubev]

Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: daily bullish reversal; 112.92 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to above to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition. The price is testing ascending triangle pattern together with 112.92 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing, otherwise - ranging waiting for direction.

• "The closing levels of May 15 (113.64) and 16 (112.80) are possibly significant as both days hit the market with sharp falls. While USD/JPY did manage to poke its nose above that second resistance level this week, it only did so once and on an intra-day basis, on Thursday."
• "Those resistance levels will have to be overcome if the pair is to move up and away from the broad range trade which has been in place since May 17, between 112.78 and 109.25. USD/JPY’s inability to crack them doesn’t necessarily mean a catastrophic fall, but it does suggest that that range trade will endure."

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2017-06-30 13:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

• past data is 0.5%
• forecast data is 0.2%
• actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. 

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From official report :

• "After increasing 0.5% in March, real gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.2% in April as 14 out of 20 sectors grew."
• "Service-producing industries increased 0.3% on widespread growth across sectors. Goods-producing industries were essentially unchanged as growth in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction was largely offset by a decline in manufacturing."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada's Gross Domestic Product news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "On that topic of data - next week is a big one for the Greenback, despite the holiday-shortened backdrop in U.S. markets with Tuesday being Independence Day. Monday is a half-day across U.S. equities exchanges, and the ISM Manufacturing Survey is released at 10 AM ET. Matters thicken considerably on Wednesday afternoon, as we get the meeting minutes from the Fed’s rate decision in mid-June, and this should be very interesting considering the topics of balance sheet reduction along with the four hikes that the Fed says they are expecting out to the end of 2018. And then on Friday, we get the ‘tip of the spear’ on the data front with the release of Non-Farm Payrolls for the month of June. The current expectation is for +180k jobs to have been added in the most recently completed month, an improvement from the +147k print that was seen for May."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBP/USD - "For the British Pound, last week was dominated by comments from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, whose remark that “some removal of monetary stimulus is likely to become necessary” was interpreted as bringing closer an increase in UK interest rates. The trade-off he was talking about was presumably the one between slow growth and high inflation, which makes UK monetary policy decisions particularly difficult. So essentially he was saying only that if growth picks up and inflation fails to come down a decision to raise rates will become easier. If the markets were to begin to understand that and reinterpret Carney’s comments, it’s quite possible that the Pound will ease back again after the gains it made in their wake.It’s also important to note that the 1.3000 to 1.3030 level has proved to be strong resistance for GBPUSD."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)

AUD/USD - "The RBA will give us its July monetary policy decision on Tuesday, when the Official Cash Rate is firmly expected to remain at its 1.50% record low. Assuming it does, all will hinge on what the RBA says to the market in the aftermath. AUD/USD has reportedly risen in the last few days precisely on the expectation that RBA Governor Philip Lowe will indeed join his international colleagues and warn that ultra-low rates’ best days are behind them. Moreover, bets on any actual rate increases from the RBA remain long shots. According to index provider ASX, futures markets do not yet fully price a rise at any meeting between now and November 2018. That said, the yield curve now implied by 30-day cash-rate futures suggests somewhat higher rates than it did at the start of last week; just not a full, quarter percentage point rise."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)

USD/CNH - "In two weeks, China will release the second quarter GDP. As a major component to the economy, manufacturers’ performance could largely impact the overall growth in the second quarter and whether the country can maintain the desired expansion when slowdown is already seen. Thus, the June Caixin PMI print will not only be an important gauge due to its own significance; it is also a leading indicator for China’s economic growth in the second quarter and therefore worth to keep an eye on."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)

XAU/USD - "Highlighting the economic docket next week are the U.S. ISM figures, FOMC minutes and the June Non-Farm Payrolls report. With the Fed looking to begin offloading its massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet, U.S. data will need to continue to perform – as it stands markets are pricing just a 54% chance the central bank will hike in December. For gold, the outlook heading into the monthly open remains precarious with the decline now approaching broader up-trend support as sentiment begins to level off."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Brent Crude Oil (based on the article)

Brent Crude Oil - "The EIA’s monthly update showed U.S. production narrowed to 9.08M b/d from 9.1M b/din March, with the slowdown led by a 5.8% contraction in the Gulf of Mexico. The recent downtick in U.S. output may keep oil afloat in July, but a broader look at the data set instills a long-term bearish outlook for energy prices especially as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) remains unwilling to implement deeper production cuts."

[Sergey Golubev]

Bitcoin has left stocks, bonds, and gold in the dust in the first half of 2017 (based on the article)

Weekly price is testing 2,998 resistance level to above for the bullish breakout to be continuing. Alternative, if the price breaks 1,971 support to below so we may see the secondary correction to be started within the primary bullish market condition.

By the way, 1,971 is the daily bearish reversal level so if the price breaks this level to below on daily chart  the daily bearish reversal will be started.

• "The Bitcoin Investment Trust Shares have soared 220.59%, while the S&P 500 and SPDR Gold shares rose in upper single digits; and all three investments outperformed the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond, which gained a modest 6.13 percent."
• "Apparently, the ongoing run up in Bitcoin and other digital currencies has most of the elements of a bubble. It’s an exotic asset that comes with big advantages—a better hedge against global uncertainties than conventional hedges like gold; a convenient medium of payment around the globe; and a limited supply--21 million."

[Sergey Golubev]

The Week Ahead: S&P 500 targets (based on the article)

Weekly price for S&P 500 is located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart for 2,453 resistance level to bee testing for the bullish trend to be continuing. Alternative, if the price 2,386 support to below on weekly close bar so the logican correction wilkl be started with 2,354 and 2,312 levels as the targets to re-enter.

• "Last week Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief US equity strategist discussed on CNBC his year-end S&P 500 target of 2700. As an investor should this make you nervous?"
• "If a larger number of analysts start to raise their targets I would become more concerned as typically this occurs before a correction.  Some may remember in early 2016 when crude oil dropped below $40 many lowered their price targets to the $20-$25 area. As it turned out crude oil rallied for the rest of the year to close $20 higher."