Why Most Investors Hate Gold (based on the article)
Forex Weekly Outlook February 15-19 (based on the article)
GDP data from Japan, Draghi speaks before the European Parliament, Inflation data from the UK and the US, Employment data in the UK and in Australia, US Building permits, PPI and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. These are this week’s top forex events. Join us as we explore these market movers coming our way.
Weekly Outlook for EUR/USD by Morgan Stanley (based on the article)
EUR/USD: Secondary correction to be started within the primary bullish market condition.
"Should the tactical rally we foresee occur, it would put pressure on
EURUSD once again. This would likely ease Eurozone inflation
expectations slightly but probably won’t prevent noise about potential
ECB action in March. Remember, the correlation between EURUSD and equity
markets remains strong and we expect the correlation to continue while
there are outstanding FX hedged equity positions in the markets."
Weekly Outlook for USD/JPY by Morgan Stanley (based on the article)
USD/JPY: Bearish trend to be continuing.
"We think the BoJ may try to use verbal intervention to stop the
appreciation of the JPY. Domestic fund managers have seen their foreign
holdings depreciate due to a combination of a stronger JPY and weaker
global equity markets. This deterioration has occurred when holdings of
foreign assets are at record highs, which could mean that stops are
triggered and repatriation of holdings is forced. The BoJ attempted to
push back against this by introducing negative rates, but failed. We
believe the BoJ will act as a circuit breaker, stopping the JPY
appreciating this week."
Weekly Outlook for GBP/USD by Morgan Stanley (based on the article)
GBP/USD: Ranging bearish with symmetric triangle pattern to be broken to below with 1.4325 target.
"Any risk rally in equities or oil is likely to provide GBP with a
boost. We don’t expect this to last long though, so continue to promote
selling on rallies. The BoE remains dovish and the Brexit debate is in
full swing in the press. The UK’s current account deficit makes the
currency prone to weakness when inflows are reduced due to high market
volatility. EURGBP this week broke previous highs, supporting the upside
momentum in this pair."
Technical Intra-day Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
EUR/USD. Bullish. Take partial profit at 1.1376.
"The current rally is showing signs of
slowing and a short-term top appears to be imminent. However,
confirmation is only upon a break below the stoploss at 1.1180. A break
below this level could lead to a pullback towards the 1.1085 support. Those who are long should continue to book some partial profit at 1.1376."
USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Japan Gross Domestic Product and 35 pips price movement
2016-02-09 00:30 GMT | [JPY - Gross Domestic Product]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)
[JPY - Gross Domestic Product] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
USDJPY M5: 35 pips price movement by Japan Gross Domestic Product news event
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speech and 17 pips price movement
2016-02-15 14:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speech]
[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speech] = Hearing at the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee Introductory statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Brussels, 15 February 2016.
"In order to make the euro area more resilient, contributions from all
policy areas are needed. The ECB is ready to do its part. As we
announced at the end of our last monetary policy meeting in January, the
Governing Council will review and possibly reconsider the monetary
policy stance in early March. The focus of our deliberations will be
twofold. First, we will examine the strength of the pass-through of low
imported inflation to domestic wage and price formation and to inflation
expectations. This will depend on the size and the persistence of the
fall in oil and commodity prices and the incidence of second-round
effects on domestic wages and prices. Second, in the light of the recent
financial turmoil, we will analyse the state of transmission of our
monetary impulses by the financial system and in particular by banks. If
either of these two factors entail downward risks to price stability,
we will not hesitate to act."
EURUSD M5: 17 pips price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news event
"The current down-move from the high is likely part of a corrective
pull-back which could extend lower to 1.1060. The major support is
nearer to 1.0990 and a move below this level is not expected for now.
Overall, this pair is expected to remain under pressure in the coming
days unless it can reclaim the 1.1375 peak."
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German ZEW Economic Sentiment and 15 pips price movement
2016-02-16 10:00 GMT | [EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
[EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed German institutional investors and analysts.
"The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany has declined for
the second consecutive time in February 2016. The index has decreased by
9.2 points compared to the previous month, now standing at 1.0 points
(long-term average: 24.6 points)."
EURUSD M5: 15 pips price movement by German ZEW Economic Sentiment news event