Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 117

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.16 08:00

Quant Signals For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, & Other Majors - Barclays (based on efxnews article)

The latest signals from Barclays Capital 'FX Quantitative Analyzer' model:



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.17 08:42

5 Reasons Why EUR/USD Shorts Are Attractive Again - BNPP (based on efxnews article)

BNP Paribas maintains short position for EURUSD from early this week from 1.1025 with 1.05 as a target, and those are 5 reasons about why this bank is considering the short for this pair:


  1. Greek outcome. "The EUR’s attempts to rally on positive Greek news proved short-lived this week. As we have long argued, a return of positive risk sentiment re-encourages markets to rebuild long risk positions funded in EUR."
  2. EUR less vulnerable. "EUR short positions now stand at -6 versus a high of -35 this year (on a -50 to 50 scale) according to BNP Paribas positioning analysis. This suggests markets have more scope to rebuild EUR shorts and should be less vulnerable to a positioning squeeze should risk sentiment deteriorate again."
  3. ECB and QE. "There were few surprises at the ECB policy meeting this week...We think the bottom line is that the ECB stands ready to counter any economic weakness or market volatility with even easier policy, which would be negative for the EUR."
  4. US rates. "There is still substantial scope for an upward adjustment in US front-end yields, which should be supported by the recent improvement in risk sentiment."
  5. Bearish for EUR/USD. "We see scope for both US nominal rates and eurozone inflation expectations to push the spread even further against EURUSD, but even at current levels it is sending a clear bearish signal for the pair."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.17 10:47

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on dailyfx article)

A meaningful pickup in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may boost the appeal of the greenback and spur fresh monthly lows in EUR/USD as it fuels speculation for a Fed rate hike in 2015.

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important:

Signs of stronger price growth may encourage the Fed to adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy, and we may see a growing number of central bank officials show a greater willingness to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) later this year as Chair Janet Yellen remains confident in achieving the 2% target for inflation over the policy horizon.

However, waning business confidence paired with the weakness in private-sector consumption may continue to drag on price growth, and a dismal CPI print may generate a near-term rebound in EUR/USD as it drags on interest rate expectations.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Headline & Core CPI Picks Up in June

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish USD Trade: Consumer Price Inflation Falls Short of Market Expectations
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The Release

EURUSD Daily


  • May see a run at the May low (1.0818) as EUR/USD fails to retain the range-bound price action carried over from the previous week; even though the long-term outlook remains bearish, the euro-dollar may continue to consolidate over the near to medium-term as it retains the wedge/triangle formation from earlier this year.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1180 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1210 (61.8% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.0790 (50% expansion) to 1.0800 (23.6% expansion)

USDJPY M5: 19 pips price movement by USD - CPI news event:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.19 14:24

'EURUSD would trade down to about .9840 in August before trading back to 1.1450+' (based on dailyfx article)


W1 price is located below 200 period SMA and below 100 period SMA for the primary bearish market condition with secondary ranging between 1.0461 support level and 1.1466 resistance level:

  • The price is ranging between 1.0461 and 1.1466 levels.
  • The price broke triangle pattern from above to below together with 50.0% Fibo level at 1.0966 for the bearish breakdown to be continuing.
  • If weekly price will break 1.0461 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing, otherwise the price will be ranging within the familiar levels;
  • “The tightening range since the May high could compose a triangle within a larger advance from the March low.” A broader range does of course remain possible but with EURUSD breaking support this week, one must consider a more immediate bearish alternative. Comparisons with 1997 (pre euro trading but a calculated value is plotted) price behavior are striking.”
  • “EURUSD would trade down to about .9840 in August before trading back to 1.1450+.”

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.19 18:33

Morgan Stanley - Outlooks For The Coming Week (based on efxnews article)

EUR: Bearish

  • Weekly price is on primary bearish market condition located below Ichimoku cloud for trying to break key support level for the bearish to be continuing.
  • Price is located below 100 SMA and below 200 SMA for the primary bearish.
  • The data of AbsoluteStrength indicator and Trend Strength indicator are in contradiction with each other for ranging market condition
  • "With uncertainty regarding Greece diminished, we believe that investors will feel more comfortable reinitiating EUR shorts, as evidenced by the latest break in EURUSD below the 100 DMA. Draghi has reiterated that the ECB stands ready to act if needed, which could be enough to weigh on EUR, particularly if it supports equities, given the inverse relationship between European stocks and EUR."


JPY: Bullish

  • Weekly price is located far above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish market condition to be continuing.
  • Price is located above 100 SMA and above 200 SMA for the bullish trend.
  • The values of Absolute Strength indicator are estimating the secondary ranging which is going between 119.25 support and 125.85 resistance levels.
  • "We expect JPY weakness to reverse, and maintain our bullish view, despite the recent pick-up in equity markets. Recent data from Japanese pension funds point to the reallocation process being largely complete, suggesting that foreign outflows from Japan could slow."



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.20 10:15

Credit Suisse - 'run a limit order to sell EUR/USD at 1.0962, with a stop at 1.1036 and a target at 1.0745.' (based on efxnews article)


Credit Suisse is still considering the bearish breakdown for EURUSD to be going very soon from now. The key support level to be crossed for the breakdown to be started is 1.7041:

  • "This is holding for now, and we allow for a potential bounce from here. However, we look for an eventual breakdown to test trendline support, now at 1.7041. We would expect a bounce here, but beneath it can trigger a move down to 1.0660."
  • "EUR/USD has extended its decline in its broader “triangular” range to weigh on the May low and 61.8% retracement support at 1.0819."


And there is some strategy which CS proposed for us:

  • "Near-term resistance shows at 1.0962/66, above which can see a move back to 1.1035, with 1.1083/89 expected to cap."
  • "In line with this view, we run a limit order to sell EUR/USD at 1.0962, with a stop at 1.1036 and a target at 1.0745."



 

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 19.07 - 26.07: bearish breakdown

Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.20 13:43

This is interesting situation on M5 timeframe: the price was reversed to the bullush condition and it was stopped by 1.0844 resistance level. The next target (for buy stop order placing) is 1.0859 :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.20 17:52

Fundamental Reasons to Sell EUR - Credit Agricole (based on efxnews article)

Credit Agricole suggested to sell for EUR just because of the following:

  1. "The EUR has been under pressure regardless of the Greek parliament voting in favour of the agreed bailout package. Even if all measures are implemented successfully it still appears questionable whether debt-sustainability can be achieved. From that angle Greece-related uncertainty is likely to continue for longer."
  2. "ECB President Draghi reiterated anew that QE will run its course regardless of stabilising growth and price developments."
  3. "In terms of data, this week’s focus will be on July PMIs."
  4. "We expect the single currency to stay subject to downside risk. This is especially true when considering that speculative positioning is close to neutral territory, which suggests limited position-squaringrelated upside risk."


From the technical point of view, the next target for EURUSD is 1.0461 after crossing 1.0818 resistance level so the fundamental expectations of  Credit Agricole are more than real ones in this situation for example.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.21 12:56

Citibank - pause in the heavy EUR selling, another round of GBP strength (based on efxnews article)

EUR:

  • This is the third week Citi is celebrating the EUR has been sold aggressively by Citi’s client base:
    "Overall, this highlights that the Greek risk is not a predominant driver of positioning, but that rates and policy expectations are. With the ECB highlighting policy will remain unchanged deep into 2016, there may be a pause in the heavy EUR selling."
  • By the way, Citi is estimating some pausing in aggressive EUR bearish tendency for now.

GBP:

  • Citi is predicting an another round of GBP strength:
    "Leveraged accounts were the strong buyers of GBP in the past week, after BOE signaled earlier rate hikes were likely. However, Real Money, which has long been a GBP buyer failed to follow through."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.21 17:10

EURUSD price and 100 hour MA (based on forexlive article)


'The EURUSD price and the 100 hour MA are meeting as NY traders enter for the trading day. The 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) is at 1.0878 and that is the high for the day. Risk can defined and limited at the level. The 22 day Average true range is 124 pips. Yesterday's range was a year tying low of 50 pips.  All of this says, look for an extension.  So although the 100 hour MA is a risk defining level and the price is currently stalling - suggesting a selling interest, it remains a finger on the button trade. That is if the price moves above the 100 hour MA.'



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