AUDIO - Weekend Edition with John O'Donnell
The Ambassador of Opportunity, John O’Donnell joins Merlin Rothfeld
for an interesting look at the criteria that normally appears in the
markets during a topping period, as well as data which occurs during a
bottoming market. John also looks at some of the major headwinds for
investors and markets going forward.
Credit Agricole - EUR: The End Of Complacency (based on efxnews article)
"EUR came off at the start of the new week after the talks
between Greece and its creditors in Brussels were abandoned after only
45 minutes yesterday. Our central case is still for a compromise to be found most
likely in the form of a partial bailout extension in exchange for the
implementation of some of the reforms. Market uneasiness could grow ahead of the Eurogroup meeting and keep the downside pressure on EURUSD in place for now."
Trading News Events: U.K. Consumer Price Index (based on dailyfx article)
An uptick in the headline & core U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may
spur fresh monthly highs in GBP/USD as it raises the Bank of England’s
(BoE) scope to remove the record-low interest rate sooner rather than
Why Is This Event Important:
BoE Governor Mark Carney may sound increasingly hawkish over the coming
months as the central bank head anticipates stronger price growth in
the second-half of 2015, and we may see a growing number of Monetary
Policy Committee (MPC) officials prepare U.K. households &
businesses for higher borrowing-costs as the economy gets on a firmer
However, waning confidence paired with falling input costs may continue
to drag on price growth, and a dismal CPI print may undermine the
near-term breakout in GBP/USD as market participants push back bets for a
BoE rate hike.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. Headline & Core Inflation Upticks in May
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
GBPUSD, M5, 2015.06.16
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
GBPUSD M5: 68 pips price movement by GBP - CPI news event
SEB - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD (based on efxnews article)
EUR/USD: Still respecting dynamic support. The high end
of the (bullishly tilted) short-term "Cloud" (1.1175) remains an
obstacle for bears - standing in the way for a move down to the
1.1049/36 pivot area. While nearby nitty-gritty discrepancies in range
are sorted out the intraday stretches are located at 1.1150 &
Credit Agricole- 'Where To Sell Euro Relief Rally?' (based on efxnews article)
The impact of the Eurogroup’s failure to achieve a Greek settlement
over the weekend will be temporarily supplanted as investors turn their
attention towards tomorrow’s FOMC announcement. We remain USD bulls as
the FOMC should strike a more constructive tone raising rate hike
expectations. Latest soft US data have not changed our opinion.
To the contrary, our call remains for Fed lift-off in September
with a bias towards further FOMC front-loading. Such front loading
behaviour post-FOMC should push USD funding costs higher thereby
dragging EUR/USD lower. Even USD/JPY should be ‘pulled off the
side-lines’ after Kuroda’s overnight clarification to see the pair
re-test and then break 124.0 in the week ahead.
Returning to the Eurozone and the stakes surrounding the June 18 EMU
finance ministers are now even higher. With many acknowledging Greece to
now hold the superior bargaining position, investors will be looking
for further potential creditor concessions this week to stave off fears
of a default.
Are such concessions realistic? ‘Yes’ would be our answer and thus the probability of a EUR relief-rally remains high. However
those bearish EUR investors with all but the shortest outlooks need not
be overly worried, as such a relief-rally would likely trigger renewed
Indeed we envisage such selling could quickly reemerge before 1.15 in EUR/USD and 1.30 in EUR/JPY.
UBS for EUR: 'Greece Closer To The Brink' (based on efxnews article)
Should the Greek government and its international partners fail
to reach an agreement in the emergency meetings scheduled for the
coming days, a further escalation in the crisis would seem likely, argues UBS.
"This could well include changes to the ECB's provision of Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) and capital controls, which
would likely destabilise sentiment and put a heavy burden on the Greek
economy, the banking system, and government finances – while not
necessarily prompting the Syriza government to agree to Troika demands,"
Bank of England Officials Unanimous in Keeping Rates on Hold (based on abcnews article)
Minutes from the Monetary Policy Committee
meeting ending June 3 showed policymakers were mindful that "headwinds
to growth" had begun to ease. The minutes show that over time, the
interest rate to "keep the economy operating at normal levels of
capacity," was likely to rise from the record low of 0.5 percent.
The Office of National Statistics also reported Wednesday that Britain's
unemployment rate for the three months ending in April was 5.5 percent,
down from 5.7 percent for the months to January.
AUDIO - Talking Stocks with Tillie Allison
Tillie joins Merlin for a show filled with listener
questions! Topics range from how to adapt to current market conditions,
to using options in sideways markets. Tillie offers her insights into
the stocks OMG, TBT, TLT, SBUX, and how she dealt with losses and trade
plans early on in her trading career.
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the
Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation
- traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates
will change in the future.
"The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting
principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency
mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of
rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by
keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable
levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions."
"When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy
accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its
longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The
Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and
inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may,
for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below
levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run."
EURUSD, M5, 2015.06.17
EURUSD M5: 111 pips price range movement by USD - Federal Funds Rate news event
GBPUSD, M5, 2015.06.17
GBPUSD M5: 120 pips price range movement by USD - Federal Funds Rate news event
Forex technical analysis: EURUSD above trend line. Now close support/Risk (based on forexlive article)