Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 183

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.07.29 11:49

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is located below 100 SMA and near 200 SMA: the price is testing 1.1119 resistance level to above for the reversal of the price movement to the primary bullish market condition. For now - the ptrice is located within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1119 resistance level located in the beginning of the bullish trend to be started, and
  • 1.1055 support level located below 200 SMA and near 100 SMA in the beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed.

Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for direction.


Daily price. United Overseas Bank is considering for EUR/USD for the ranging market condition with the high range to be expended up to 1.1150 level:

"We shifted to a neutral EUR stance yesterday and held the view that the current rebound in EUR could extend higher to 1.1150. We have seen a high of 1.1118 so far and the pullback from the top appears to be corrective in nature and from here, we continue to anticipate a move to 1.1150 (next resistance is at 1.1180/85). Support is at 1.1040 but the key level is 1.1000 (breach of this level would indicate that immediate upward pressure has eased)."


  • If daily price breaks 1.1119 resistance level on close bar so the bullish reversal will be started with 1.1150 level as a nearest target to re-enter.
  • If daily price breaks 1.0951 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

 

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Forecast for Q3'16 - levels for Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.07.29 20:37

Hang Seng Index: End Of Week Technicals - secondary correction is going to be started

This trading week ended with some interesting results so let's describe some of the interesting moments for HSI.

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D1 price and H4 price are located on the bullish area of the chart with the ranging within key narrow s/r levels. The secondary correction is going to be started if the price breaks 21,841 support level to below on close bar with 21,666 target to re-enter, otherwise - ranging bullish trend will be continuing.


Chinkou Span line is located above the price indicating the correction to be started in the near future for both timeframes, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the local downtrend in the secondary ranging way within the primary bullish market condition.

If H4 price breaks 21,841 support level on close bar so the local downtrend as a secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition will be started with 21,666 target to re-enter.
If H4 price breaks 22.324 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on ranging bullish within the levels.


Resistance
 Support
22.32421,841
N/A
21,666

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : correction

 

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AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 31.07 - 07.08: daily bullish to be resumed with 0.7675 final target

Sergey Golubev, 2016.07.30 13:23

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is on bullish breakout to be started on open D1 bar for now with the symmetric triangle pattern to be formed by the price for the direction. The price is located within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • 0.7590 resistance level located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 0.7420 support level located below Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started.

Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as the primary bullish to be resumed.

If D1 price breaks 0.7420 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price breaks 0.7590 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed with 0.7675 final bullish target.
If not so the price will be on ranging bbullish within the levels.



  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 0.7590 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 0.7420 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish
Resistance
Support
0.75900.7420
0.7675
0.7304


SUMMARY : breakout

TREND : bullish

 

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 31.07 - 07.08: daily bearish breakout with possible bullish reversal

Sergey Golubev, 2016.07.31 13:35

Daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart: the price is on secondary bear market rally to be started on Friday with 1.1191 resistance level to be crossed to above for the rally to be continuing. The price is located within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1381 resistance level located above Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the bullish trend, and
  • 1.0911 support level located far below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart.

Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the breakout to be started.

If D1 price breaks 1.0911 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If D1 price breaks 1.1381 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish reversal will be started with 1.1427 level as a nearest daily target.
If not so the price will be on ranging bearish within the levels.



  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1381 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.0911 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish
Resistance
Support
1.13811.0911
1.1427N/A


SUMMARY : breakout

TREND : bearish

 

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Forecast for Q3'16 - levels for USD/JPY

Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.02 14:49

USDJPY Pivot Points Analysis - weekly oversold to be below S3 Pivot level

W1 price is located to be below S3 Pivot at 105.40:

  • The price is on bearish ranging between S2 Pivot level at 110.62 and support level at 98.97.
  • Price is breaking symmetric triangle pattern to below for the bearish trend to be continuing;
  • If weekly price will break S3 Pivot at 105.40 so the primary bearish market condition will be continuing, otherwise the price will be ranging bearish condition.


InstrumentS1 Pivot
S2 Pivot
S3 Pivot
Yearly PP
R1 Pivot
USD/JPY 115.41 110.62
105.40
120.63
 125.41

Trend:

  • D1 - ranging bearish
  • W1 - ranging bearish
  • MN1 - bearish

 

Example about counter trend:

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Is trade against trend dangerous?

Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.03 06:25

Trading against the main trend (against the primary bullish/bearish) = counter trending (systems are counter-trend systems, EAs are counter-trend EAs).
Many martingale EAs and scalping systems are working on this way.

It means the following: trading the secondary trend (correction after good breakout, or rally after good breakdown for example).

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Is trade against trend dangerous?

Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.03 06:40

This is the example:


I took SMA with period 200 as an example only (some people are using 21 EMA, Ichimoku, 55 MA, 34 SMA and more - depends on the system and timeframe).


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.04 11:52

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is located near and above 200 SMA: the price is on secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1233 resistance level located above 100 SMA/100 SMA reversal area in the bullish trend to be continuing, and
  • 1.1105 support level located on 200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the correction to be continuing.


Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for EUR/USD to be continuing with the ranging condition to be above 1.1215 for some short period of time:

"While the stop-loss for our bullish EUR view  is still intact at the time of writing, the unexpected sharp drop yesterday clearly indicates an increased risk of a short-term top. A move below 1.1130 would shift the outlook to neutral and suggest a period of broad sideway consolidation has started. This appears likely unless EUR can move and stay above 1.1215 within these 1 to 2 days."


  • If daily price breaks 1.1233 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If daily price breaks 1.1059 support level on close bar so the primary bearish reversal will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.05 13:02

Trading News Events: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (adapted from the article)

  • "Another 180K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) accompanied by a downtick in the jobless rate may boost the appeal of the greenback and trigger further losses in EUR/USD as it puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further normalize monetary policy in 2016."
  • "Even though Fed Funds Futures highlight a 12% probability for a September rate-hike, a further improvement in labor market dynamics may encourage central bank officials to adopt a more hawkish outlook for monetary policy as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment.’’"


Bullish USD Trade

  • "Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD."
  • "If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit."
Bearish USD Trade
  • "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade."
  • "Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction."


Daily price is located between 100 SMA and 200 SMA for the ranging market condition waiting for the direction within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1233 resistance located above 200 SMA and near 100 SMA on the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 1.1072 support level located near 200 SMA in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started on the chart.

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish market condition with the possibility to the bearish reversal.

  • If the price will break 1.1233 resistance level on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If price will break 1.1072 support on close daily bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish trend will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

 

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Forecast for Q3'16 - levels for DAX Index

Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.06 15:28

Dax Index Technical Analysis 2016, 07.08 - 14.08: daily bullish ranging within key narrow s/r levels; weekly bullish reversal

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart for the ranging within key narrow support/resistance levels:

  • 10,467.4 resistance level located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 10,089.1 support level located above Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the secondary correction to be started.

Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the ranging condition to be continuing.

If D1 price breaks 10,089.1 support level to below on close daily bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If D1 price breaks 10,467.4 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


Resistance
Support
10,467.410,089.1
N/A9,559.5


SUMMARY : ranging bullish

TREND : bullish

 

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 08.07 - 14.08: possible daily bearish breakdown with 1.1072 support level

Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.06 17:13

Daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart: price was bounced from 1.1233 resistance leve to below for the bearish trend to be resumed. The support level at 1.1072 is going to be tested by the daily price to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.

Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the bearish trend in the near future, and Trend Strength indicator is estimating the future trend as a secondary ranging. Chinkou Span line is breaking the price to below for good possible breakdown.

If D1 price breaks 1.1072 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If D1 price breaks 1.1233 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish reversal will be started on the secondary ranging way.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1233 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.1072 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish
Resistance
Support
1.12331.1072
N/A1.0931


SUMMARY : ranging bearish

TREND : bearish

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