Press review - page 421

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence

2016-07-26 14:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

• past data is 97.4 (revised)
  
• forecast data is 95.5
• actual data is 97.3 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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What’s Expected:

From the article:

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EUR/USD H1: bullish ranging near bearish reversal. The price is on ranging near and above Ichimoku cloud within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

• 1.0985 support level located below Ichimoku cloud and near Senkou Span line in the beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed, and
• 1.1029 resistance level located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart.

If the price breaks 1.0985 support level to below on close H1 bar so the bearish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks 1.1029 resistance to above on close H1 bar so the bullish reversal will be continuing.
If not so the price will be continuing with the ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
1.1029	1.0985
N/A	1.0951

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AUD/USD H1: ranging for the bullish continuation or for the bearish reversal. The price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart for the ranging within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

• 0.7582 support level located near and below Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started, and
• 0.7537 resistance level located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart.

If the price breaks 0.7582 support level to below on close H1 bar so the bearish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks 0.7537 resistance to above on close H1 bar so the bullish reversal will be continuing.
If not so the price will be continuing with the ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
0.7537	0.7582
N/A	0.7582

[Sergey Golubev]

S&P 500 Daily Technicals: correction to be started or the bullish trend to be continuing (adapted from the article)

Sharply Unchanged, Consolidating or Topping?

"There are no expectations of the Fed moving away from 0.50%, so the market’s attention will be on any language changes in the statement. It would seem likely this will be a low volatility meeting, however, we should always be on our toes just in case."

D1 price is located above Ichimoku cloud within very narrow support/resistance levels:

• 2169.75 resistance level for the bullish trend continuation, and
• 2151.00 support level for the secondary correction to be started.

Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the bullish trend to be continuing. And Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging correction to be started in the near future.

If D1 price breaks 2151.00 support level on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction will be started.
If D1 price breaks 2169.75 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
2169.75	2151.00
N/A	2119.25

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : possible daily correction

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Consumer Price Index and 108 pips range price movement

2016-07-27 01:30 GMT | [AUD - CPI]

• past data is -0.2%
• forecast data is 0.4%
• actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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• rose 0.4% this quarter, compared with a fall of 0.2% in the March quarter 2016.
• rose 1.0% over the twelve months to the June quarter 2016, compared with a rise of 1.3% over the twelve months to the March quarter 2016.

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AUD/USD M5: 108 pips range price movement by Australian Consumer Price Index news event

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Gross Domestic Product and 51 pips range price movement

2016-07-27 08:30 GMT | [GBP - GDP]

• past data is 0.4%
• forecast data is 0.5%
• actual data is 0.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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"Change in gross domestic product (GDP) is the main indicator of economic growth. GDP was estimated to have increased by 0.6% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2016 compared with growth of 0.4% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016."

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GBP/USD M5: 51 pips range price movement by U.K. Gross Domestic Product news event

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Durable Goods Orders and 11 pips range price movement

2016-07-27 12:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

• past data is -2.3%
• forecast data is -1.1%
• actual data is -4.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From rttnews article:

• "New orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods fell by much more than expected in the month of June, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday."
• "The report said durable goods orders tumbled by 4.0 percent in June following a revised 2.8 percent decrease in May."
• "Economists had expected durable goods orders to dip by 1.3 percent compared to the 2.2 percent decline originally reported for the previous month."
• "Excluding orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders edged down by 0.5 percent in June after slipping by 0.4 percent in May. Ex-transportation orders had been expected to rise by 0.3 percent."

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EUR/USD M5: 11 pips range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision (adapted from the article)

2016-07-27 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

• past data is 0.50%
• forecast data is 0.50%
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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What’s Expected:

Why Is This Event Important:

"With Fed Funds Futures reflecting limited expectations for higher borrowing-costs in 2016, Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as the central bank argues market-based measures of inflation compensation remains weak while ‘most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.’"

• "The diverging paths for monetary policy continues to cast a long-term bearish outlook for EUR/USD, but the pair may mount a larger recovery over the days ahead amid the string of failed attempts to close below 1.0960 (23.6% retracement) to 1.0970 (38.2% retracement)"
  
• Key Resistance: "1.1760 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1810 (38.2% retracement)."
  
• Key Support: "Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)."
• Bearish trade: "Need green, five-minute candle following the rate decision to consider a long EUR/USD position."
• Bullish trade: "Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EUR/USD trade."
  

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EUR/USD H1: bearish reversal. The price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the possible bearish reversal with 1.0984 support level to be testing for the bearish trend to be started. The price is located now within the following support/resistance levels:

• 1.0984 support level located below Ichimoku cloud and near Senkou Span line in the beginning of the bearish trend, and
• 1.1007 resistance level located above Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the primary bullish trend on the chart.

If the price breaks 1.0984 support level to below on close H1 bar so the primary bearish trend will be started.
If the price breaks 1.1007 resistance to above on close H1 bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement to the bullish market condition.
If not so the price will be continuing with the ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
1.1007	1.0984
N/A	N/A

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EUR/USD M5: 39 pips range price movement by Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Fed keeps key interest rate steady but sees fewer risks (based on the article)

• "In this Wednesday, June 22, 2016, file photo, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, before the House Financial Services Committee hearing on U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve releases its latest monetary policy statement Wednesday, July 27, after wrapping up a two-day meeting."
• "Nine of 10 members of the policy-making committee voted to leave the federal-funds rate at 0.25% to 0.5%."
• "Some economists think a hike is possible in September, if hiring remains solid and the turbulence that followed Britain's vote to leave the European Union continues to stabilize."
  
• "Before Wednesday's statement was issued, according to data from the CME Group, investors foresaw only about a 27 percent probability of a Fed rate hike by September and about a 52 percent chance by December."

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Jobless Claims and 8 pips range price movement

2016-07-28 12:30 GMT | [USD - Unemployment Claims]

• past data is 252K
• forecast data is 261K
• actual data is 266K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

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From CNBC article:

• "The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, but the underlying trend continued to point to sustained labor market strength."
• "Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 266,000 for the week ended July 23, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were revised to show 1,000 fewer applications received than previously reported."
• "Economists polled by Reuters had forecast initial claims rising to 260,000 in the latest week. Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market, for 73 consecutive weeks, the longest stretch since 1973."

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EUR/USD M5: 8 pips range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis - daily bearish with 42.54 key support (adapted from the article)

Daily price is on bearish market condition located below Ichimoku cloud: price is testing 42.54 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing. Alternative, if the price breaks 45.15 resistance level to above so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started, otherwise - ranging bearish.

• "Ichimoku Cloud is a trend following indicator that allows you to see the “big-picture trend” on the chart. If price (shown via candles), and the momentum line (bright green on my chart) are below the cloud, we are in a bearish environment. Buying against the momentum and trend is not advised because a downtrend tends to gather steam much like a snowball rolling down a mountain."
• "For now, we can use the bottom of the cloud, which aligns with the 100-DMA at $44.63/bbl as clear resistance. Until price breaks above this level on a closing basis, higher prices should be viewed as more favorable levels to enter a short position as opposed to buying low."
  
• "Significant support aligns at the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement zone of the February-June zone, which is also the late-March low ~$35.81/bbl. While fighting a trend is not encouraged, that is a level to see if buyers begin to show up due to bargain prices."

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.

• Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 45.15 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 42.54 support level for possible sell trade
  
• Trading Summary: bearish
  

Resistance	Support
45.15	42.54
47.53	N/A

SUMMARY : bearish

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is located below 100 SMA and near 200 SMA: the price is testing 1.1119 resistance level to above for the reversal of the price movement to the primary bullish market condition. For now - the ptrice is located within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

• 1.1119 resistance level located in the beginning of the bullish trend to be started, and
• 1.1055 support level located below 200 SMA and near 100 SMA in the beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed.

Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for direction.

Daily price. United Overseas Bank is considering for EUR/USD for the ranging market condition with the high range to be expended up to 1.1150 level:

"We shifted to a neutral EUR stance yesterday and held the view that the current rebound in EUR could extend higher to 1.1150. We have seen a high of 1.1118 so far and the pullback from the top appears to be corrective in nature and from here, we continue to anticipate a move to 1.1150 (next resistance is at 1.1180/85). Support is at 1.1040 but the key level is 1.1000 (breach of this level would indicate that immediate upward pressure has eased)."

• If daily price breaks 1.1119 resistance level on close bar so the bullish reversal will be started with 1.1150 level as a nearest target to re-enter.
  
• If daily price breaks 1.0951 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.