Daily price is located inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging market condition. The price is traded near and above Senkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart within the following support/resistance levels:
Strength indicator is estimating the ranging trend to be continuing, and
Trend Strength indicator is evaluating the future possible trend as a
bearish condition to be started.
SUMMARY : ranging on bearish reversal
TREND : ranging
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.17 11:59
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)
AUD/USD - "Although Fed officials have claimed that
every policy meeting may produce a rate hike, their clear desire not to
trigger market panic suggests that they will not opt to change things
without an opportunity to thoroughly explain in detail. This means that
after this week’s outing, the next opportunity for stimulus withdrawal
comes in December. Between now and then, another opportunity to update
traders will come in November, offering the FOMC a chance to up- or
down-shift the projected rate hike path and limit surprise risk. Keeping
this flexibility will mean that the narrative emerging from the
upcoming announcement will need to be cautious but unmistakably hawkish.
This bodes ill for risk appetite as well as the Aussie’s yield
advantage, threatening to deliver the currency a third consecutive
Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.20 07:26
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and 18 pips price movement
2016-09-20 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]
[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent
meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that
influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.
From ABC News article:
"Interest rates are likely to remain on hold in the foreseeable future,
with the Reserve Bank of Australia flagging that growth remains in line
with expectations, and the RBA remains unperturbed by the housing
"Taking into account the recent data, and having eased monetary
policy at its May and August meetings, the Board judged the current
stance of monetary policy was consistent with sustainable growth in the
Australian economy and achieving the inflation target over time," the
Board said in its minutes.
"The Reserve Bank has an inflation target of between 2 to 3 per cent, and the rate cuts in May and August were prompted by weak inflation figures in the March and June quarters."
AUD/USD M5: 18 pips price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.20 15:14
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD: U.S. Residential Building Permits2016-09-20 12:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.
From Business Insider article:
U.S. housing starts fell more than expected in August as building
activity declined broadly after two straight months of solid
increases, but a rebound in permits for single-family dwellings
suggested demand for housing remained intact.
Groundbreaking decreased 5.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted
annual pace of 1.14 million units, the Commerce Department said
on Tuesday. July's starts were unrevised at a 1.21 million-unit
Permits for future construction slipped 0.4 percent to a 1.14
million-unit rate last month as approvals for the volatile
multi-family homes segment tumbled 7.2 percent to a 402,000
unit-rate. Permits for single-family homes, the largest segment
of the market, surged 3.7 percent to a 737,000-unit pace.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts falling
to a 1.19 million-unit pace last month and building permits
rising to a 1.17 million-unit rate.
USD/CAD M5: 20 pips price movement by U.S. Building Permits news events
AUD/USD M5: 13 pips price movement by U.S. Building Permits news events
Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.21 20:48
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD: FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate2016-09-21 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]
[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the
Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.
"Fed fund futures, contracts that investors use to bet on interest rate
movements, imply that there is a 60 per cent chance of a hike at the
December meeting, up slightly from 59 per cent ahead of today’s
decision, reports Robin Wigglesworth in New York."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.22 09:08
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Gov Lowe Speaks and 28 pips range price movement
2016-09-22 00:00 GMT | [AUD - RBA Gov Lowe Speaks]
[AUD - RBA Gov Lowe Speaks] = Opening Statement to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, in Canberra
From SBS article: RBA governor Philip Lowe says a lower Australian dollar would be helpful
to amplify the positive effects of its falls in recent years
A lower Australian dollar would be helpful in amplifying the
economic benefits of its recent falls, Philip Lowe has said at his first
appearance as Reserve Bank governor.
"Of course most central banks say the same thing - most people would
like a slightly lower exchange rate and I think it reflects the
deficiency in aggregate demand in the global economy," Mr Lowe told a
hearing of the House of Representatives economic committee in Sydney.
"Many of my peers think the same, but of course we can't all have a lower exchange rate," he said.
AUD/USD M5: 28 pips range price movement by RBA Gov Lowe Speaks news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.22 14:51
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD: U.S. Jobless Claims2016-09-22 12:30 GMT | [USD - Unemployment Claims]
if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
EUR/USD M5: 7 pips range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events
AUD/USD M5: 8 pips price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events
USD/CAD M5: 11 pips range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events
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