Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 179

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.23 08:16

S&P 500: intra-day ranging within 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area for direction (adapted from the article)

H4 price is located within SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (above 200 SMA and below 100 SMA for the ranging bullish market condition) waiting for the direction for the possible breakout or breakdown.

  • The key support levels for this pair are 2075.00 and 2053.00.
  • The key resistance levels are 2092.00 and 2112.80.
  • "The price action since Monday is ‘shapeshifting’; the once rising channel has evolved into a symmetrical triangle above the low 2080s support. Given the S&P’s ability to hold support and converging price action towards the apex of a triangle, the path of least resistance will remain higher on a breakout above the top-side trend-line of the triangle. Should it break to the down-side and clear below 2080, then our focus shifts to the down-side."
  • "Given the proximity of price to the apex, it should break soon, like today soon. So we may see one more ‘reliable’ move before tomorrow’s UK vote and Friday’s outcome. On this end, looking forward to the return to a more "normal" trading environment."


If the price will break 2092.00 resistance level to above on close H4 bar so the bullish trend will be continuing with 2112.80 target.
If price will break 2075.00 support so the bearish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance
Support
2092.002075.00
2112.802053.00

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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for USD/JPY

Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.23 17:39

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Buy at 106.01

H4 price is breaking Ichimoku cloud to above on open bar. The price is testing 106.01 resistance level with ascending triangle pattern to be borken to above for the bullish breakout to be continuing.

  • If the price will break 106.01 resistance level on close H4 bar so reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
106.01104.01
106.85103.54


  • Recommendation to go short: n/a
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 106.01 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: breakout

SUMMARY : intra-day bullish breakout


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.24 08:45

U.K. Voters Back 'Brexit,' Will Leave European Union (based on the article)

  • "The U.K. is poised to leave the European Union after a historic referendum, vote tallies showed early Friday, setting the stage for an unprecedented and messy untangling with far-reaching implications."
  • "As of 6:05 a.m. local time Friday (1:05 a.m. ET), NBC's British partner ITV News put "Leave" at 51.8 percent with "Remain" garnering 48.2 percent, with the "Leave" campaign racking up the necessary 16.8 million votes to win."
  • "The results in favor of an exit — or "Brexit" — sent shockwaves through global markets. The pound plunged to $1.35, it's lowest level since 1985."

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EUR/USD : 465 pips price movement by Brexit Referendum Final Results Expectation


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GBP/USD : 1,639 pips price movement by Brexit Referendum Final Results Expectation



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.24 16:07

The Brexit Result Will Have China Worried (adapted from the article)

  • "Brexit means that Beijing will lose its strategic access to Europe through Britain."
  • "Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying tried for a balanced approach on Friday afternoon, according to Chinese state media, noting that China respected the British people’s choice while also hoping that the U.K. and E.U. could reach a successful agreement."
  • "Still, on Friday Chinese state media stayed away from the large-font Brexit headlines that dominated much of global press coverage."

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USD/CNH H4: bullish breakout. The intra-day price is on breakout with the bullish reversal: price broke Ichimoku cloud to above for the primary bullish market condition with 6.6514 resistance level to be crossed for the bullish trend to be continuing.
By the way, the daily price is on bullish breakout to be started today on open D1 bar, and the weekly price is on primary bullish market condition with 6.6152 resistance to be crossed to above for the close weekly bar for 6.7681 possible target.


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Hang Seng Index H4: bearish breakdown with the ranging to be started. The price broke ichimoku cloud to below for the primary bearish market condition. Price is testing 19,749 support level with 19,566 bearish target and with descending triangle pattern to be formed by the price for the bearish trend to be continuing.



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.25 09:47

Brexit - "Investors overreacted," University of Michigan business professor Erik Gordon said Friday in an email (adapted from the article)


  • Eric Wiegand, senior portfolio manager at U.S. Bank Wealth Management: "With last night’s result, that’s certainly unwinding. It caught the consensus on the wrong side yet again. Complacency had crept back into the markets."
  • Bob Stovall, U.S. equity strategist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: "Falling prices will unveil long-term buying opportunities, particularly for mid- and small-cap stocks. In the short term, markets will trade on emotion, so make sure you don’t end up becoming your portfolio’s worst enemy."
  • Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial: "Look for gold to do well as part of the safe-haven trade in addition to the move into treasuries."
  • JBC Energy analysts: "While we would argue that the British economy and its currency have not really lost 5 to 10% of its relative competitiveness overnight on a sustained basis, the level of uncertainty in the shorter term is definitely very problematic, and bets on any type of reversal do not sound like a good idea to us until the actual effects of last night’s decision become more tangible and quantifiable."
  • U.S. Bank Wealth Management's Wiegand: "In a low-growth environment, uncertainty or increased concerns really do create tremendous volatility."
  • Axel Merk, president of Merk Investments: "One could argue that the U.K. will remain in the EU for a minimum of two years, as formal notice that triggers the two-year countdown to leave most likely won't be given for months, but the markets don't wait. Instead, they are concerned about a disintegration of the EU, (and) they are concerned about a waning influence of the U.S. over the EU."

Dax Index - daily bearish breakdown, weekly bearish reversal:

  • Daily price broke 9420.0 support level on open D1 bar to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition. If the price breaks this level to below on close D1 bar so the bearish breakdown will be continuing, otherwise - ranging bearish.
  • Weekly price is testing 9420.0 support level to below to be reversed from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition. The price will be turned onto the long-term bearish condition by this level to be broken to below on close weekly bar for example.



Bovespa Index - daily correction, weekly ranging to the bearish reversal:

  • Daily price is located above 200 SMA and near above 100 SMA for the bullish market condition: the price is on secondary correction for 50,350 support level to be testing with 48,185 bearish reversal level as a nearest daily target. If the price breaks 48,185 level to below so the reversal of the price movement from the bullish to the daily bearish market condition will be started; if the price breaks 52,830 resistance to below so the bullish trend will be continuing; otherwise - the price will be on ranging bullish condition near bearish reversal area of the chart.
  • Weekly price is on ranging located near 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area waiting for the direction of the terend to be started. if the price breaks 48.185 support level to below on weekly close bar so the long-term bearish trend will be started; if the price breaks 52,830 resistance to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed; if not so the price will continuing the ranging condition near reversal area.



SILVER (XAG/USD) - daily bullish breakout, weekly bear market rally:

  • Daily price is on bullish breakout by 17.99 resistance level to be testing for the bullish trend to be continuing. Alternative, if the price breaks 17.09 support level to below so the secondary correction will be started with 15.80 level as a bearish reversal target.
  • Weekly price is on local uptrend a a bear market rally: the price broke 100 SMA to above with 17.99 resistance level to be tested for the rally to be continuing. Alternative, if the price breaks 15.80 support level to below so the rally will be starped with the primary bearish market condition to be resumed on this weekly timeframe.



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GBPUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 26.06 - 03.07: bearish breakdown with 1.3214 support level to be broken for the daily bearish to be continuing

Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.25 16:33

Daily price is on bearish breakdown related to Brexit result by the breaking key support levels to below:

  • the price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA area to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition;
  • 1.3835 support level is broken on open daily bar to below for the bearish market condition with 1.3214 level as a real target to re-enter.

If the price will break 1.3835 support level on close daily bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If D1 price will break 1.3214 support level on close bar from above to below so the bearish breakdown will be resumed.
If D1 price will break 1.4946 resistance level on close bar so the price will be fully reversed to the bullish market condition located to be above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area in the bullish area of the chart.
If not so the price will be on ranging bearish within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1052 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.3214 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish rally to the bullish reversal
Resistance
Support
1.49461.3835
N/A
1.3214


SUMMARY : bearish breakdown

TREND : bearish

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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for US Dollar Index

Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.26 17:07


Dollar Index D1: breakout with 96.40 reversal level to be tested for the daily bullish reversal. Daily price is located near and below 200 SMA for the bearish market condition:

  • price is breaking 100 SMA together with 95.32 resistance to above to be reversed from the primary bearish to the ranging bearish condition;
  • 96.40 resistance level to be tested for the possible bullish reversal.

If D1 price will break 93.02 support level on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If D1 price will break 96.40 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

Resistance
Support
95.3294.66
96.4093.02


SUMMARY : breakout

TREND : possible daily bullish reversal

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.28 14:44

Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2016-06-28 12:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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  • "Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 1.1 percent in the first quarter of 2016, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the fourth quarter of 2015, real GDP increased 1.4 percent."
  • "The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month.  In the second estimate, th increase in real GDP was 0.8 percent. With the third estimate for the first quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; exports increased more than previously estimated."
  • "Real gross domestic income (GDI), which measures the value of the production of goods and services in the United States as the costs incurred and the incomes earned in production, increased 2.9 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the fourth.  The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the fourth."

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EUR/USD M5: 9 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news event


GBP/USD M5: 27 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news event


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.30 17:48

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoE Gov Carney Speaks and 185 pips range price movement

2016-06-30 15:00 GMT | [GBP - BoE Gov Carney Speaks]

[GBP - BoE Gov Carney Speaks] = The speech at the Bank of England, in London.

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Uncertainty, the economy and policy - speech by Mark Carney :


  • "In recent years, policy uncertainty has increased globally. In some jurisdictions, fiscal frameworks have been questioned; in others, exchange rate regimes. And with very low interest rates and expanding unconventional policies, the efficacy of monetary policy itself has been questioned. The charge that central banks are out of monetary ammunition is wrong, but the widespread absence of global price pressures demands that our firepower be well aimed."
  • "When uncertainty is high, policymakers should have three objectives.  First, conduct a sober, objective assessment of the outlook and the risks to it.  Second, develop and communicate a plan to reduce those risks and to seize new opportunities.  And third, do no harm, by minimising any possible confusion about the commitment to core macroeconomic policy frameworks themselves."

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GBP/USD M5: 185 pips range price movement by BoE Gov Carney Speaks news event :



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Forecast for Q3'16 - levels for GBP/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.07.01 09:48

Technical Targets for GBP/USD

H4 price is on bearish market condition located below 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area. The price is on ranging within narrow s/r levels: 1.3495 resistance and 1.3120 support. If the price breaks 1.3120 level to below so the intra-day bearish trend will be continuing, if the price breaks 1.3495 resistance to above so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started, otherwise - the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.


Daily price broke 200 SMA to below on Friday to be reversed to the primary bearish condition. The price is testing 1.3120 support level for the bearish trend to be continuing.


  • If daily price will break 1.3120 support on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.