2016-08-03 12:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.
EUR/USD M5: 13 pips range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event
AUD/USD M5: 18 pips price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event
NZD/USD M5: 18 pips price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event
USD/CNH M5: 41 pips price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Retail Sales and 29 pips range price movement
2016-08-04 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.
AUD/USD M5: 29 pips range price movement by Australian Retail Sales news event
Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
is located near and above 200 SMA: the price is on secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition within
the following key reversal support/resistance
Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the correction to be continuing.
price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for EUR/USD to be continuing with the ranging condition to be above 1.1215 for some short period of time:
"While the stop-loss for our bullish EUR view is still intact at the
time of writing, the unexpected sharp drop yesterday clearly indicates
an increased risk of a short-term top. A move below 1.1130 would shift
the outlook to neutral and suggest a period of broad sideway
consolidation has started. This appears likely unless EUR can move and
stay above 1.1215 within these 1 to 2 days."
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoE Official Bank Rate and 165 pips price movement
2016-08-04 11:00 GMT | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]
[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight.
GBP/USD M5: 165 pips price movement by BoE Official Bank Rate news event
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Statement and 26 pips price movement
2016-08-05 01:30 GMT | [AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Statement]
[AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Statement] = It provides valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions
and inflation - the key factors that will shape the future of monetary
policy and influence their interest rate decisions.
From the article:
"But we interpret the larger number of risks to the outlook and the
RBA’s forecast that average underlying inflation would be stuck at the
bottom of the 2-3% target band by the end of 2018 as a strong easing
Our base case is that rates remain on hold at 1.5%, but we
see a clear risk of further cuts given the RBA expects persistently low
inflation and with banks passing on only half of this week’s rate cut to
home loan customers. The AUD is also important given the RBA thinks it
still poses a “significant source of uncertainty” around the outlook.
our view, today’s statement reinforces this risk. With the cash rate
now close to the 1% floor for the cash rate, we think the RBA would be
looking more closely at unconventional options if downside risks to the
AUD/USD M5: 26 pips price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Statement news event
Trading News Events: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (adapted from the article)
Bullish USD Trade
is located between 100 SMA and 200 SMA for the ranging market condition waiting for the direction within the following
key reversal support/resistance levels:
indicator is estimating the ranging bullish market condition with the possibility to the bearish reversal.
2016-08-05 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 255,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, and financial activities. Employment in mining continued to trend down."
EUR/USD M5: 66 pips price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news event
Dollar Index M5: price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news event
Weekly Outlook: 2016, August 07 - August 14 (based on the article)
US Crude Oil Inventories, Rate decision in New Zealand, US Unemployment Claims, German GDP data, US Retail sales, Producer prices and Consumer sentiment. These are the major events on forex calendar.
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)
Dollar Index - "The global market will significantly downshift its scheduled contribution to the Dollar. Over the past few weeks, one of the key sources of Greenback motivation would come from the easing efforts of global central banks.
The BoJ increased its stimulus program, the RBA cut rates and the BoE
revived its QE program in a new post-Brexit program. Aside from the RBNZ
and a few emerging market central bank meetings scheduled over the
coming week, there is little in the way of comparable counterweight
GBP/USD - "The long-term downward trend in GBP/USD may
reassert itself over the days ahead as the pair fails to preserve the
wedge/triangle formation carried over from the previous month, and the
continuation pattern foreshadows further losses for Cable especially as
it carves a new series of lower highs & lows in August. With that
said, the next downside region of interest comes in around 1.2920 (100%
expansion) to 1.2950 (23.6% expansion), with a break of the July low
(1.2788) opening up 1.2630 (38.2% expansion)."
USD/JPY - "Will BOJ Governor Kuroda point to further
policy easing at the bank’s September meeting? Its July statement said
the bank would perform a “comprehensive assessment” on the effectiveness
of its inflationary monetary policies in September. Such a statement
suggests that officials knew the July announcement would come as a
disappointment. And yet officials’ reluctance to act more aggressively
underlines their hesitation on further policy easing."
AUD/USD - "This week was full of key economic data for
Australia including the Trade Balance, Building Approvals, the RBA Cash
Target Rate, and Retail Sales. As you can imagine, the headliner was the
RBA cash rate cut of 25bps from 1.75% to 1.50%. Despite the cut, the
lack of guidance showing a preference for another cut in light of a
rather robust local economy has supported the Australian Dollar across
the board. Additionally, the RBA failed (likely on purpose) to downgrade
the inflation forecast any further, and didn’t seem bothered by the
appreciating AUD as they had in the past."
USD/CNH - "Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most
important gauges for China’s economy, as a low read may increase the
odds of the PBOC adopting a more dovish monetary policy. Although China
may be contending with an increasing risk of asset bubbles with China’s
Central Bank less likely to cut benchmark rates or introduce aggressive
easing measures, a weak CPI reading could open room for PBOC to make
policy tweaks in the future when investment conditions improve. The CPI
read for July is expected to drop to 1.8% according to Bloomberg, or
even lower to 1.7% according to Chinese institutions; both distant from
the target-level for CPI of 3.0%."
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "More interesting for the long-Gold thesis is the Jackson Hole Summit scheduled for August 25th-27th.
This is when the foremost economic minds will meet in Wyoming to
discuss global economic issues. This will include numerous Central
Bankers from the U.S. and international Central Banks, finance
ministers, academics and many other financial market participants. Given
that many economies around the world are struggling with similar
issues, with few Central Banks wanting capital flows driving the value
of their currency higher, this represents an interesting opportunity for
"The chart below provides a full summary of all applying exchange-rate regimes for EU members, since the European Monetary System with its Exchange Rate Mechanism and the related new common currency ECU
was born on 13 March 1979. The euro replaced the ECU 1:1 at the
exchange rate markets, on 1 January 1999. During 1979-1999, the D-Mark
functioned as a de facto anchor for the ECU, meaning there was only a
minor difference between pegging a currency against ECU and pegging it
against the D-mark."