Looking for patterns - page 52
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
Andrei, I'm getting older and you're getting stupider, unfortunately. I am not a colonel, but a lieutenant colonel.
Short is only possible in margin trading. Any margin position is a derivative.
If you think about it, it turns out that buying any asset is a kind of shorting all others. So we remain in the money, but apples have become more expensive, so now we will buy them less than we could have bought earlier. So we short APPUSD and get a loss)).
Guys, STOP! Let's get back to the original purpose of the thread - to find patterns and find a workable solution!
Alexey, there are (as far as I see it) 2 trends emerging - 1) Maznev_Rails and 2) Chingiz'sproject of determining the flat / trend? Where do we go from here? What are the stumbling blocks?
Basically, there is one detail that has not yet been dealt with here: trend lines. But there is an opinion that there is no such thing as a trend line. Assuming this view, these are schizophrenic lines.
Purely canonical. No nonsense. Below is a chart with the Eurodollar. Will someone argue that after the crossing and fixation of the price above this line of schizophrenia, if we draw a grid of galucinacci lines on the obtained segment of the non-existent trend, the probability of reaching the level of 23.6 of this grid will be over 50%? And if the price also consolidates above that level, the next step would be to move to 38.2, etc.?
Many would describe the future in those terms. And it is not uncommon for such predictions to come true. But there are huge doubts.
It is possible, of course, to add several conditions by standard indicators, then if several of them coincide, the probability of the scenario will increase.
I checked it many years ago and it is the basis of scalping methods (pipsing according to the old one). It's a good idea to check it out
It would be good to check it now if it still exists. One trade, not a linked series, is open at K rate. Let's denote SL and TP distances to SL and TP. Let's forget about all
overhead (spread, commission, swap, other brokerage tricks). Let's consider that the deal will be definitely closed. That is, the brokerage company
will fulfill the conditions - at exit from the corridor
(K-SL, K+TP) if buy
(K+SL, K-TP) if sell (*)
the profit will be either -SL, or +TP points without slippage as at Instant Execution. Let's estimate the chances
of TP completion. In other words, the probability of exit of the rate from the corridor (*) through the boundary in the direction of TP
P(TP). Whether the Fibonacci level is there or not.
To answer the question let's remember about the trading platform market which is represented by DCs. They have been around for
They exist for several years paying their employees' salaries, etc. exclusively out of their clients' losses. At the same time they choose
platform out of hundreds of already developed ones. Metatrader has been the most popular for the last 15 years, offering to use
SL and TP instruments. It means that with any setting of these levels the brokerage company income (= losses from all of the SL and TP of the client), at least, will not be less than zero.
at least will not be less than zero. According to the rules of calculating the expectation of total profit for two possible outcomes
PL = TP * P(TP) - SL * P(SL) <= 0 (1)
In the best case the inequality becomes equality for the client, so in each transaction, let it have different SL
and TP, we have in the best case PL = 0 both with TP=SL and with SL=101*TP. In the last case 100 trades out of 101 terminate with
by TP, and only one gives a loss which brings the sum to zero. But what if I do not meet it? Or maybe I'll be able to
identify it and stop it on its long way to the SL level? These hopes are what gives encouragement to pipsers. Put SL 10-100 times further than TP and
take a little profit. It is pleasant. About equation (1) as the boundary of probabilities of going out of the given corridor to one or another side.
And it should be remembered when we speak about prognosis of achievement of this or that level. For myself, I call (1)
THE HOPELESSNESS PRINCIPLE. I checked it on ticks of tens of brokerage companies with the most various SL and TP, and imitated millions of transactions,
But (without taking into account overheads, let me remind you) - PL is comparable to spread. I wonder if anything has changed now?
Chingiz Project Extremes Indicator 2.0
A continuation of the Chingiz Project Extremes:
File updated 2020.02.16 19:05Here is another good idea for an illustration of trend lines -https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/333223
In my opinion, the difficulty of working with trend lines is that their location depends on the scale of the chart. If we do not fix the scale in MetaTrader, the line may change its position in the future. Besides, traders have different screen resolutions and one's chart may reach this line earlier or later than the other one ...
I haven't noticed any such difficulties with the trend lines in all my time. Not even approximately.
Here's another good idea with an illustration of trend lines -https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/333223
google "folding meter trading". everything has already been invented before us)
I didn't say the idea was new. I meant that it is interesting to implement. And someone here might even be interested in ordering it.