Forecast and levels for EURO - page 7

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.02 17:53

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, July 02 - July 09 (based on the article)

EUR/USD finally made a breakthrough and reached the highest levels in over a year. Is this the beginning of a longer trend? The first week of July features PMIs and the ECB meeting minutes.


  1. Manufacturing PMIs: Monday morning: 7:15 for Spain, 7:45 for Italy, the final French figure at 7:50, final German read at 7:55 and the final euro-zone number at 8:00.
  2. Unemployment Rate: Monday, 9:00. A repeat of this number is on the cards.
  3. Spanish Unemployment Change: Tuesday, 7:00. A big drop of 120.3K is expected now.
  4. PPI: Tuesday, 9:00. A slide of 0.2% is projected.
  5. Services PMIs: Wednesday morning: 7:15 for Spain, 7:45 for Italy, the final French figure at 7:50, final German read at 7:55 and the final euro-zone number at 8:00.
  6. Retail Sales: Wednesday, 9:00.A bounce worth 1.8% is expected.
  7. German Factory Orders: Thursday, 6:00.A bounce worth 1.8% is expected.
  8. Retail PMI: Thursday, 8:10.
  9. ECB Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 11:30. Four weeks after the ECB decision, we get more details. In that June 8th meeting, the made small optimistic tweaks to its statement but also lowered inflation forecasts. Since then, Draghi made his Sintra speech that was much more optimistic. Will we hear some fear in the minutes?
  10. German Industrial Production: Friday, 6:00. A rise of 0.4% is forecast.
  11. French Trade Balance: Friday, 6:45. A narrower deficit of 5.1 billion is expected.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.03 17:51

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and GOLD (XAU/USD): ISM Manufacturing PMI

2017-07-03 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report :

  • "The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The June PMI® registered 57.8 percent, an increase of 2.9 percentage points from the May reading of 54.9 percent. The New Orders Index registered 63.5 percent, an increase of 4 percentage points from the May reading of 59.5 percent. The Production Index registered 62.4 percent, a 5.3 percentage point increase compared to the May reading of 57.1 percent."
  • "The Employment Index registered 57.2 percent, an increase of 3.7 percentage points from the May reading of 53.5 percent. The Supplier Deliveries index registered 57 percent, a 3.9 percentage point increase from the May reading of 53.1 percent."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events


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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events


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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.06 10:39

EUR/USD with short probability (based on the article)

Daily price is on above Ichimoku cloud for the bullish ranging within the following s/r levels:

  • 1.1445 resistance level located in the beginning of the daily bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 1.1109 support level located in the beginning of the bearish reversal to be startred.

If the price breaks 1.1312 support so we may see the secondary correction with 1.1171 target to re-enter.


  • "Retail trader data shows 26.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.73 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.06424; price has moved 6.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.5% higher than yesterday and 31.2% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.3% lower than yesterday and 4.8% lower from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EURUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.06 17:30

EUR/USD - intra-day ranging near bearish reversal (based on the article)

Price on H4 chart is located near and above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is near the border brtween the primary bullish and the ranging bearish market condition waiting for the direction.

  • If the price breaks 1.1445 resistance to above so the bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If the price breaks 1.1312 support to below on close daily bar so we may see the price to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition.
  • If not so the price will be on ranging waiting for the direction.


  • "Last week – EURUSD – after running sharply higher from a pullback ran into resistance by way of a trend-line extending lower from the August 2015 peak over the 2016 high. In this vicinity also lies several swing highs as far back as early 2015, with the most recent turning points coming during the first-half of 2016. The confluence of swing-highs and long-term trend-line make the mid-11400s an important inflection point, and a formidable area for buyers to push the single-currency through."
  • "Looking at one-week implied volatility (currently at 7.3%), the projected one-standard deviation projected high clocks in at 11481, which is 36 pips above last week’s top. It suggests we may see a move beyond the beforementioned resistance and depending on momentum at the time it could turn out to be a meaningful breakout which could expose the 2016 high at 11615."
  • "Looking lower, the projected one-week low is at 11251, which falls just below solid horizontal and trend-line support. Giving the benefit of the doubt to the strength of the trend and support the lower-bound looks less likely to be breached looking out over the next week. A decline to the 11300/285 area may present an attractive spot for would-be longs to enter. If, however, we see a close below the trend-line and support then a move back towards 11100 (200-day MA at 11446) may be in the works. A daily closing bar below support would be our cue that the lower range threshold may be underpriced and selling could become aggressive."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.07 14:55

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Dollar Index: Non-Farm Payrolls

2017-07-07 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 222,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in health care, social assistance, financial activities, and mining."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.08 11:19

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, July 09 - July 16 (based on the article)

EUR/USD corrected its previous gains and dropped within the range. What’s next? The upcoming week features a mix of trade, industrial output, and inflation figures.


  1. German Trade Balance: Monday, 6:00. The surplus reached 19.8 billion euros in April. The data for May will likely be similar.
  2. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 8:30.
  3. Industrial Production: Wednesday, 9:00.
  4. German Final CPI: Thursday, 6:00.
  5. French Final CPI: Thursday, 6:45.
  6. Trade Balance: Friday, 9:00. Last month, the Euro-zone trade balance surplus almost totally mirrored the German one, standing at 19.6 billion. Once again, the German number will probably drive the total figure higher.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.08 16:45

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for EUR/USD (based on the article)


EUR/USD - "Next week is another light data week with only three European prints of medium-importance, and there are no Mario Draghi speeches on the calendar. While this certainly doesn’t preclude unplanned comments, or leaks or ‘anonymous sources’ as we saw the day after Draghi’s speech in Sintra, this light data calendar can be an opportune time to grade bullish continuation prospects for the Euro in the weeks and months ahead. But key here will likely be the matter of pair selection for those bullish Euro plays. While EUR/USD is the obvious flashpoint that generally garners the most attention, traders may be better served directing Euro-strength plays towards the Japanese Yen."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.13 14:58

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Dollar Index: Producer Price Index

2017-07-13 13:30 GMT | [USD - PPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

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From official report :

  • "The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.1 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in May and rose 0.5 percent in April. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 2.0 percent for the 12 months ended in June."
  • "In June, almost 80 percent of the rise in the final demand index is attributable to prices for final demand services, which increased 0.2 percent. The index for final demand goods edged up 0.1 percent."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Producer Price Index news events


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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Producer Price Index news events


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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Producer Price Index news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.15 08:28

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, July 16 - July 23 (based on the article)

EUR/USD took another step forward, but could not hold onto the highs. What’s next? The big event on the agenda is undoubtedly the ECB meeting. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.


  1. Final CPI: Tuesday, 9:00. According to the initial figures, the consumer price index rose by 1.3% y/y in June and core CPI advanced by 1.1%. Both figures were better than expected and both will likely be confirmed in the final read, even though Spain’s CPI was upgraded in its final read.
  2. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. The all-European figure printed 37.7 points.
  3. German PPI: Thursday, 6:00.
  4. Current Account: Thursday, 8:00. The figure stood at 22.2 billion in April and the number for April is due now.
  5. Rate decision: Thursday, the decision at 11:45, press conference at 12:30. There, Draghi talked about a shift from deflation to reflation and mentioned a gradual removal of the stimulus. This time, no new forecasts are on the cards but reporters and markets would like to know if the ECB will announce the beginning of the end of its bond-buying scheme, currently set to expire by year-end. Any optimism about inflation and growth would be euro-positive, while a damp mood by the President of the Frankfurt-based institution would hurt the euro.
  6. Consumer Confidence: Friday, 14:00.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.19 15:06

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Dollar Index: Residential Building Permits

2017-07-19 13:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]

  • past data is 1.17M
  • forecast data is 1.20M
  • actual data is 1.25M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.

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From economiccalendar article :

  • "US building permits increased 7.4% for June to an annualised rate of 1.254mn from 1.17mn in May. This was above consensus forecasts of a figure close to 1.20mn to give an annual increase of 5.1%."
  • "Housing starts rose 8.3% on the month to an annual rate of 1.215mn from 1.12mn in May. This was also above market expectations of 1.16mn with an annual gain of 2.1%."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Residential Building Permits news events


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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Residential Building Permits news events


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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Residential Building Permits news events



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