no an email alert
have a nice weekend.
ok then take one of my eas and forward test it and then re-backtest it. you'll then make conclusion that forward test is the same sh!t because results are the same
PS: since nobody watches dolly thread - I changed dolly expert (yeah that old thing) so now it works with MM and trailing stops and produces up to 6,2k pips during 2006 (up until now, optimizing for better results)
hope this helps!
I'll post it here as soon as I'm done optimizing ... (edit I'll post it on the weekend, until then its optimization, so far 6,2-6,3k pips with 460 pips drawdown)
PS2: my ps2 rulezz just kiddin, I found out that dolly expert can produce profit factor higher than 2(!!!) which is the best of all the experts I use (I don't use scalpers and I don't have systems making 90% profitable trades without huge drawdowns). But it still can't beat breakout strat. that gets 5 millions in 2,5 years!
Read this qoute from 10point3
Originally Posted by davidke20
A few simple idea to make you understand is, if you're in the progression of 5th, current lot size is short 1.6lots, account balance is 5k floating p/l is -3k, NFP came in, move down 160pips... guess what...... BOMB!!!!
Another 1 is, you're down long 1.6lots, account balance is 5k floating p/l -3k, NFP came in, move up 160pips, congratulations! Profit! Account 10% up, what's next? Continue long, keep going and going. Take a look at what happened to 8th December, 2006 NFP.... guess what..... BOMB!!!!
Another 1, you're in good hand, only 1 position in hand with short 0.1 lots. NFP came in, stack up 160pips, with pip step 15....guess what....BOMB!!!!
Just 1 more, you're in good hand, only have 1 position in hand with long 0.1lots. NFP came in, profit all the way up 160pips, great, account up by 6%. Congratulations.... AGAIN! after 2 hour, you're now in good hand long 0.1 still in profit. Bernanke decided to clear throat and reannounce NFP corrections, GBPUSD plunged by 220pips in 1 hour.....guess what....BOMB!!!!
Please refer the above scenario with the chart on 8th December, 2006 NFP day. I can assure you pipstep 15 aint work on that day!!! That is the purpose of forward testing...understand?LOL
backtesting is really nothing but a waste of time ... try the basic 10point3 with no modifications and it will give amazing result .... . they only useful thing for backtest is to see if the EA will work or not ... that's about it ..
Ok, thank you. I would like to forward test this starting Sunday open. Cool
Can you post your best settings for it to?
I'll post EA with its best settings tomorrow (still optimizing! I'll test all best settings with a longer period to see how it works on non-optimized period)
And about bombs - just don't trade first friday of the month or close all your positions before NFP if you are not sure what is going to happen.
And yeah, don't go live without forward test. I'm forward testing it right now.
Best result so far - 2792 profit (2792/0,7=3989 pips approx) with 215 drawdown (307 pips approx) and 2.17 profit factor. Second best result - 4261 profit (6087 pips approx) with 301 drawdown (430 pips exactly) and 2.94 profit factor. Second best because my aim is to reduce drawdown.
Some conclusions for 2006:
SL of 200 was never reached.
TP of 800 was reached (wow! 800 pips...)
If you start moving stoploss up as soon as you have at least 15 pips of profit you'll have small drawdown and SL of 200 won't be hit. Can't say exactly about NFP and moves like 220 pips, most likely no new positions were opened in such days because we don't set buy stop if we are already higher than buy zone, the same for sell stop.
The easiest way to get high profits: no TP, almost no SL (move SL to 0 profit) and trailing stop of 105 works real good! Increasing trailing to 125 makes 1470 more profit and 85 more drawdown.
And please note: so far all best results are highly optimized for 2006. I'll spend this weekend optimizing for crisis period like the second half of 2005 (which turned out to be real bad for this EA) to see how results differ. Maybe I'll end up having 2 strategies, maybe one common strategy. I'll inform you of results as soon as there are results.
11 hours left till the end of stage one (since I am still using a single core CPU, I can't use this PC for anything but optimization so I'm off for playing PS2 hehehe)
PS: this ea draws a really nice curve!
I'm done optimizing. Retesting results with MM, they differ greatly..
edit: 2,5 year result - I got over-optimized. It gets easily to 476k profit with 40% drawdown during 2006 but fails to perform well (200k and around) on the longer time period. I'll have to optimize for the 2005 and see if there is any correlation between results.
posting the expert for you to play with...
dolly graphics is an indicator and should be put into indicators folder.
Best settings: TP 400 SL 200 UrovenBezubitka 15 (I'll rename it a bit later, its profit you have before you start moving SL to breakeven) Trailing stop 105. These work on a long TF producing 247k profit in 2,5 years. 680 days, 604 deals. Almost every day.
As of 2006 - TF 400 SL 200 UrovenBezubitka 65, trailing stop 85. That makes 500k during 2006 and 372k for 2,5 years with 75% drawdown...
I'll be optimizing on the whole period with MM now.
Have fun with the EA!
I'm very much 'into' back testing and would like to help were possible.
Just 3 questions before I start pestering my pc :-) :
-I'm I correct in presuming you did the optimizing on the GBPUSD?
-What timeframe did you use please?
-What time would you suggest to put in the "TimeOrders 1 and 2" relative to GMT?
If you would like to, I'll post the findings I get with your suggested settings. Have found often that different brokers used during back testing, give different results.
forgot to mention. TF doesn't really matter, orders are placed twice a day as close to open time as possible.
Funny thing about starting hour - best time is different for different settings. For example I use 9 and 15 CET (GMT+1), don't know about DST (probably not used). On the other hand I found out that for some settings there are other starting times that work best, like 10 and 18 or something like that.
I'll change starting time from string to int and then we'll be able to optimize starting times.
I'm currently optimizing for the whole period with MM (since using MM gives really different results)
The best result for the EA is 500k+ for 2006 and 350k+ for 2004-2007.
The best result for my favourite EA is almost 10kk for 2004-2007
But I wonder if I can make them work together for a better result.
Very nice initiative! Thanks.
Been following Dolly and Cat for a while now and I hope your input (and from all others) can make an even more profitable method!
Have had a look at your template and it looks very nice I must say! Can't wait for the market to resume again on Sunday evening!!!
Will post my findings off course.
Thanks for your reply. Would be great if there is the possibility to optimize the trading times as well! Was just thinking that!
Just ran some back tests (with M30) and optimizing runs and I think this might turn out to be a rather interesting month... I (but that's very personal) prefer a MMRiskFactor of just 0.04 or there about. But that can be increased slowly of course as the trust in the EA grows I guess... Even with this lower risk it seems to give a very nice return and a very low Max drawdown.
I'm just hoping it will stand its ground in forward testing too...
A great weekend to all and thanks again for sharing,
Great work, I will start forword testing early next week as well .... I think on CyberiaTrader EA there is an option to set the trading time, is it possible to copy that part of the code and add it to Dolly_Expert2_mm_trail EA ( can you just reduce the name of the EA its too long ) ? I am not sure if this information is useful to you but I have noticed that Nina indicators always gives a singal before fisher (KusKus starlight ) indicator ..
can you please post the EA on the first page