Press review - page 533

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY -  daily bullish continuation with 114.36 target (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku clud to above for the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition. For now, the price is breaking 113.68 resistance level together with ascending triangle pattern to above for the bullish trend to be continuing with 114.36 nearest daily target to re-enter.

• "On Friday, USD/JPY broke above 114 for the first time since May in large part due to persistent JPY weakness that was catapulted by a BoJ offer. The Bank of Japan offered to buy unlimited bonds at a fixed rate to help limit front end bond yields and emphasize their Yield Curve Control (YCC) approach to monetary policy. However, there were no tenders, which could mean we’ll see further JGB flattening in the near term as we see across the world. The takeaway message here is that the BoJ is actively engaged as other central banks (we’re looking at you ECB & BoC) are actively disengaging from their prior dovish stances, which could lead to persistent upside in EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY."

[Sergey Golubev]

General Electric‘s (NYSE: GE) - daily bearish breakdown; 26 level is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is on berish breakdown to be located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price is breaking 26.10 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.

• "General Electric's stock has declined nearly 10% since the start of the year, significantly underperforming compared to the broader market. Goldman Sachs also downgraded GE recently, stating that the company may be forced to cut dividends this year. There are a few major factors that have contributed to GE’s underperformance this year. First, GE has reduced its dividends in the last 12 months, which may have impacted investor confidence. Secondly, GE’s industrial free cash flow was negative – and worse than expected – in Q1, though much of that was due to fluctuations in GE Aviation receivables, which will likely be offset in the next few quarters. Third, lower crude oil prices continue to put pressure on GE’s margins. Below we discuss these factors further."
• "GE has underperformed the market over the past several years, but in recent months the company has been facing heat from investors over dividends and lower profits. The reduction in dividends is a result of pressure on GE’s profits due to continued weakness in the oil & gas industry, among other factors. However, its dividend yield in the last few years has been consistent with its pre-recession levels, as GE repurchased about $22 billion worth of stock in 2016."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2017, July 09 - July 16 (based on the article)

The US dollar recovered across the board in a busy start to the second half of the year. Apart from further reactions to the NFP, we have all-important inflation, consumption data, and Janet Yellen’s testimony.

1. US JOLTS Job Openings: Tuesday, 14:00. The Fed has highlighted this report in the past, giving it importance despite the lag.
2. UK jobs report: Wednesday, 8:30. In May, jobless claims, known as Claimant Count Change, rose by a worrying 7.3K.
3. Janet Yellen testifies Wednesday and Thursday at 14:00. The Fed Chair meets lawmakers and she will undoubtedly talk about the economy. Yellen will then repeat the same statement on Thursday with another set of Q&A. Market impact will likely be stronger on Wednesday.
4. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00.
5. Crude oil inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
6. US PPI: Thursday, 12:30. Core PPI rose by 0.3%, beating expectations.
7. US CPI: Friday, 12:30. Inflation is falling, but the Fed calls it transitory, due to one-off factors.
8. US Retail Sales: Friday, 12:30.
9. US industrial output: Friday, 13:15.
10. US consumer confidence: Friday, 14:00.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, July 09 - July 16 (based on the article)

EUR/USD corrected its previous gains and dropped within the range. What’s next? The upcoming week features a mix of trade, industrial output, and inflation figures.

1. German Trade Balance: Monday, 6:00. The surplus reached 19.8 billion euros in April. The data for May will likely be similar.
2. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 8:30.
3. Industrial Production: Wednesday, 9:00.
4. German Final CPI: Thursday, 6:00.
5. French Final CPI: Thursday, 6:45.
6. Trade Balance: Friday, 9:00. Last month, the Euro-zone trade balance surplus almost totally mirrored the German one, standing at 19.6 billion. Once again, the German number will probably drive the total figure higher.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly USD/JPY Outlook: 2017, July 09 - July 16 (based on the article)

Dollar/yen advanced for the fourth week in a row, extending the rise alongside the uptrend support line. Can it continue further to the upside? It is getting closer to the cycle high of 114.30 and the steep uptrend could be hard to sustain.

• The upcoming week begins with echoes from the Non-Farm Payrolls report and also the G-20 Summit, including the first meeting between Trump and Putin. The focus then shifts to Yellen’s testimony on Wednesday and also on Thursday. This time, she will undoubtedly talk about monetary policy, moving markets.
• Towards the end of the week, we will get inflation data, that has been quite weak and worrying in the US. Retail sales and consumer confidence will provide a picture of the wider economy.
• In Japan, we will get the current account, PPI, and the revised industrial output data, but none of these moves markets.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "Sluggish inflation may explain the markets’ relatively dovish disposition. Disappointing wage growth data was an obvious blemish on June’s otherwise impressive employment statistics. The aforementioned ISM surveys also pointed to a slowdown in price pressure. That bodes ill for what may cross the wires when PPI and CPI numbers are published next week. This seems to support the Fed’s argument that recent disinflation owes to temporary forces while the underlying price growth trend remains on-track. When those transitory influences are rebased out over time, the case for gradual tightening will appear clear enough. If Yellen is able to articulate this stanceclearly and convincingly, traders may finally buy in and push the US Dollar up in earnest."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for EUR/USD (based on the article)

EUR/USD - "Next week is another light data week with only three European prints of medium-importance, and there are no Mario Draghi speeches on the calendar. While this certainly doesn’t preclude unplanned comments, or leaks or ‘anonymous sources’ as we saw the day after Draghi’s speech in Sintra, this light data calendar can be an opportune time to grade bullish continuation prospects for the Euro in the weeks and months ahead. But key here will likely be the matter of pair selection for those bullish Euro plays. While EUR/USD is the obvious flashpoint that generally garners the most attention, traders may be better served directing Euro-strength plays towards the Japanese Yen."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)

USD/JPY - "Fresh comments from Chair Janet Yellen may ultimately yield a bullish reaction in the greenback as Fed officials hold a growing discussion to unload the balance sheet over the coming months. With the economy now projected to expand an annualized 2.2% this year, the central bank head may endorse a more aggressive approach in normalizing monetary policy, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may implement another rate-hike ahead of 2018 especially as the region nears full-employment. In turn, Fed Fund Futures may start to reflect a higher probability for a December rate-hike, and USD/JPY may continue to retrace the decline from earlier this year as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) sticks to its Quantitative/Qualitative Easing (QQE) Program with Yield-Curve Control."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)

AUD/USD - "Economic numbers are also due out of China and here risks seem a little asymmetric- the Aussie may not rise much on strong data, but it has shown a recent propensity to slide on disappointments. There’s reason for this. The RBA has often worried aloud that Chinese demand for Australian raw materials may moderate. And the Australian government said just last week that the price of iron ore will be back below US$50/tonne next year as China’s steelmakers takes less of this key Australian export. Signs that any of these worries are justified tend to spook the currency. We will also here fulsomely from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. If she sticks to her upbeat tone on the US economy then there could be pressure on AUD/USD."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CAD (based on the article)

USD/CAD - "There has been plenty of disagreement among analysts over whether the Bank of Canada will increase its overnight rate to 0.75% from 0.5% on July 12. As I reported here, a rate rise was once seen as almost certain after hawkish comments by BoC Governor Stephen Poloz but doubts then set in. Moreover, there was a rise of 45,300 in employment, well above the expected 10,000 though below the previous 54,500 increase. The reaction in the Canadian Dollar was a sharp rise against its US counterpart as traders argued that the economy – or at least the labor market – is clearly now strong enough to withstand a quarter-point rate hike."