Forecast and levels for Dollar Index - page 3

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.29 15:38

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index and USD/JPY: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2017-06-29 13:30 GMT | [USD - Final GDP]

  • past data is 1.2%
  • forecast data is 1.2%
  • actual data is 1.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Final GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2017 , according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2016, real GDP increased 2.1 percent."
  • "Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.0 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.4 percent in the fourth. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 1.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events



 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.01 12:51

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)


Dollar Index - "On that topic of data - next week is a big one for the Greenback, despite the holiday-shortened backdrop in U.S. markets with Tuesday being Independence Day. Monday is a half-day across U.S. equities exchanges, and the ISM Manufacturing Survey is released at 10 AM ET. Matters thicken considerably on Wednesday afternoon, as we get the meeting minutes from the Fed’s rate decision in mid-June, and this should be very interesting considering the topics of balance sheet reduction along with the four hikes that the Fed says they are expecting out to the end of 2018. And then on Friday, we get the ‘tip of the spear’ on the data front with the release of Non-Farm Payrolls for the month of June. The current expectation is for +180k jobs to have been added in the most recently completed month, an improvement from the +147k print that was seen for May."


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.02 17:44

Weekly Outlook: 2017, July 02 - July 09 (based on the article)

The US dollar and the Japanese yen were on the back foot as optimism gripped markets Will the party continue? The first week of the second half features a full build up to the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls as well as other top-tier figures.


  1. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 1:45. Any figure under 50 represents contraction. A similar score is expected now: 49.9.
  2. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 14:00. Expectations stand at 55 points.
  3. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 4:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its interest rate unchanged since lowering it to 1.5% in August last year. No change is expected now. The focus is on the accompanying statement. Given the recent rise in the Aussie, Governor Lowe and his colleagues could try to talk down the currency.
  4. UK Services PMI: Wednesday, 8:30. A small slide to 53.5 is on the cards.
  5. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. These are the minutes from the June decision, which resulted in a hawkish hike. Yellen expressed optimism about the economy, jobs and even shrugged off inflation on “one off” figures. Since then, some members have expressed concerns over slowing inflation. Will these concerns be repeated now? It is important to remember that the document is edited until the very last moment.
  6. US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Thursday, 12:15. A gain of 181K jobs is on the cards.
  7. US jobless claims: Thursday, 12:30. A small rise from 244K to 245K is predicted.
  8. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 14:00. A drop from 56.9 to 56.6 is predicted.
  9. Crude Oil Inventories:  Thursday, 14:30.
  10. US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 12:30. This time, a gain of 175K jobs is expected. Wage growth is forecast to rise by 0.3% m/m after 0.2% last time. The unemployment rate carries expectations to repeat the 4.3% level seen last month.
  11. Canadian jobs report: Friday, 12:30. The unemployment rate stood at 6.8%.

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.07 14:55

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Dollar Index: Non-Farm Payrolls

2017-07-07 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 222,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in health care, social assistance, financial activities, and mining."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events



 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.08 11:07

Weekly Outlook: 2017, July 09 - July 16 (based on the article)

The US dollar recovered across the board in a busy start to the second half of the year. Apart from further reactions to the NFP, we have all-important inflation, consumption data, and Janet Yellen’s testimony.


    1. US JOLTS Job Openings: Tuesday, 14:00. The Fed has highlighted this report in the past, giving it importance despite the lag.
    2. UK jobs report: Wednesday, 8:30. In May, jobless claims, known as Claimant Count Change, rose by a worrying 7.3K.
    3. Janet Yellen testifies Wednesday and Thursday at 14:00. The Fed Chair meets lawmakers and she will undoubtedly talk about the economy. Yellen will then repeat the same statement on Thursday with another set of Q&A. Market impact will likely be stronger on Wednesday.
    4. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00.
    5. Crude oil inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
    6. US PPI: Thursday, 12:30. Core PPI rose by 0.3%, beating expectations.
    7. US CPI: Friday, 12:30. Inflation is falling, but the Fed calls it transitory, due to one-off factors.
    8. US Retail Sales: Friday, 12:30.
    9. US industrial output: Friday, 13:15.
    10. US consumer confidence: Friday, 14:00.

     

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    Press review

    Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.08 16:42

    Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)


    Dollar Index - "Sluggish inflation may explain the markets’ relatively dovish disposition. Disappointing wage growth data was an obvious blemish on June’s otherwise impressive employment statistics. The aforementioned ISM surveys also pointed to a slowdown in price pressure. That bodes ill for what may cross the wires when PPI and CPI numbers are published next week. This seems to support the Fed’s argument that recent disinflation owes to temporary forces while the underlying price growth trend remains on-track. When those transitory influences are rebased out over time, the case for gradual tightening will appear clear enough. If Yellen is able to articulate this stanceclearly and convincingly, traders may finally buy in and push the US Dollar up in earnest."


     

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    Press review

    Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.13 14:58

    Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Dollar Index: Producer Price Index

    2017-07-13 13:30 GMT | [USD - PPI]

    if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

    [USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

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    From official report :

    • "The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.1 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in May and rose 0.5 percent in April. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 2.0 percent for the 12 months ended in June."
    • "In June, almost 80 percent of the rise in the final demand index is attributable to prices for final demand services, which increased 0.2 percent. The index for final demand goods edged up 0.1 percent."

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    Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Producer Price Index news events


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    EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Producer Price Index news events


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    GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Producer Price Index news events



     

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    Press review

    Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.15 08:21

    Weekly Outlook: 2017, July 16 - July 23 (based on the article)

    The US dollar was on the back foot on political and mostly monetary issues. Is this just a setback or can we expect further falls? The upcoming week features a mix of events from all over the world.


      1. Chinese GDP: Monday, 2:00. China is the world’s No. 2 economy. and demand from the economic giant has a huge impact on the rest of the world. Note that China also releases industrial output, fixed asset investment, and retail sales at the same time. Nevertheless, GDP has the upper hand.
      2. UK inflation report: Tuesday, 8:30. The Bank of England has a lively debate about whether to raise rates or not. Headline CPI increased by 2.9% y/y and is expected to be seen again.
      3. US housing data: Wednesday, 12:30. Building permits are expected to rise to 1.20 million and housing starts to 1.16 million.
      4. Crude Oil inventories: Wednesday 14:30.
      5. Australian jobs report: Thursday, 1:30. A more modest gain of 15.3K is projected and the unemployment rate is predicted to tick up to 5.6%.
      6. Japanese rate decision: Thursday, during the Asian session, press conference at 6:30. While no change is expected in the policy driven by Kuroda, the updated assessment about the economy and especially inflation (remains very low), will be of interest.
      7. ECB rate decision: Thursday, the decision at 11:45, press conference at 12:30. Any optimism about inflation and growth would be euro-positive, while a damp mood by the President of the Frankfurt-based institution would hurt the euro.
      8. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 12:30. A slide to 23.8 is expected now. While the sector is small, it is still significant. Jobless claims are released at the same time but remain quite stable.

       

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      Press review

      Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.16 10:09

      Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)


      Dollar Index - "Next week brings no high-impact data out of the United States, and on Saturday the Federal Reserve enters the ‘quiet period’ before their next rate decision on July 26th. The bigger market-wide events are rate decisions out of Europe and Japan along with an updated inflation print out of the U.K.; and this will likely be where the bulk of market participants’ attention remains. From what we’ve seen of recent – both the ECB and the BoJ have made efforts to talk-down their currencies and, if they’re effective next week, this could bring a modicum of strength to the U.S. Dollar that would essentially amount to a retracement of the ‘bigger picture’ bearish trend."


       

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