Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for USD/JPY - page 3
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USD/JPY H8: the price is forming the bearish retracement pattern to be bounced from 115.50 resistance level to below for the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition to be started.
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.11 18:04
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)USD/JPY - "The BoJ interest rate decision may generate limited market interest as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda notes ‘there is not much likelihood that we will further lower the negative rate,’ and the central bank may continue to endorses a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as officials monitor the impact of the non-standard measures on the real economy. However, Governor Kuroda and Co. may keep the door open to further embark on the easing-cycle as they struggle to achieve the 2% target for price growth, and the diverging paths may continue to foster a long-term bullish outlook for USD/JPY especially as the BoJ strives to keep the 10-year yield close to zero."
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.18 14:28
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)USD/JPY - "Nevertheless, the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Quantitative/Qualitative Easing (QQE) Program with Yield-Curve Control may continue to instill a long-term bullish outlook for USD/JPY as the central bank retains a dovish tone and pledges to keep the 10-Year yield close to zero. Indeed, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda warned the benchmark interest rate can be reduced further as the committee struggles to achieve the 2% inflation target, and it seems as though the BoJ will continue to expand its balance sheet for the foreseeable future as officials note ‘the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI is likely to increase from about 0 percent and become slightly positive, reflecting developments inenergy prices.’ The comments suggest the BoJ will also look through the recent pickup in price growth due to the transitory nature, and the bar seems high for the BoJ to move away from its wait-and-see approach as officials continue to monitor the impact of the non-standard measures. As a result, the broader outlook for the Japanese Yen remains bearish as the BoJ sticks with the slew of non-standard measures, but the dollar-yen exchange rate may continue to track the broad range from earlier this year as market participants gauge the future pace of the Fed’s normalization cycle."
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.24 08:44
USD/JPY Daily- waiting for the direction of the bearish trend to be resumed or the secondary rally to be started (based on the article)
Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition located below Ichimoku cloud. For now, the price is on narrow ranging within 110.62/111.58 s/r levels waiting for the direction of the bearish trend to be resumed or the secondary rally to be started.
"Japanese Money markets via, the 3-month JPY LIBOR have risen more aggressively after the Dovish-Hike than USD LIBOR. The decreasing premium has aligned with JPY strength against the USD. While the BoJ is not expected to give the Fed a run for the mosthawkish central bank, a decreasing premium could continue to boost JPY against USD should the trend continue."
"The focus should now be on signs of continuation that a breakdown from Bear Channel support may open up a move toward 110/108 on JPY strength, which aligns with the 50, & 61.8% retracement of the post-election price range. Despite the bearish tone, a trade above 114.48 would show an overlapping price structure that would negate a near-term Bearish view. Until then, we’ll keep an eye for a price break of channel support given the larger environment that may support pending JPY strength and USD weakness."
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.25 12:31
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)USD/JPY - "Indeed, the bar appears to be high for central bank officials to boost the interest rate forecast as Chair Yellen argues ‘inflation moved up over the past year, mainly because of the diminishing effects of the earlier declines in energy prices and import prices,’ and the central bank may attempt to buy more time as ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.’ With that said, growing uncertainties surrounding the fiscal outlook may continue to foster fresh 2017-lows in USD/JPY even as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to pursue its Quantitative/Qualitative Easing (QQE) Program with Yield-Curve Control."