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Sergey Golubev
Moderator
97589
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly USD/JPY Outlook: 2017, July 16 - July 23 (based on the article)

Dollar/yen attempted to move above the cycle high but was rejected. On its way down, it lost the uptrend line of support. The drivers were both political and monetary.


  • The upcoming week features housing data from the US: building permits and housing starts. Also, watch the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Echoes from Yellen’s testimony and the inflation report will likely reverberate.
  • In Japan, we have a rate decision by the BOJ. Kuroda and co. are unlikely to change their current policy of holding long-term 10-year yields to 0%. The assessment of the economy and mostly inflation will set the tone. The previous BOJ meeting did not yield volatility, but you never know.
USD/JPY lost uptrend support - Forecast July 17-21 | Forex Crunch
USD/JPY lost uptrend support - Forecast July 17-21 | Forex Crunch
  • 2017.07.14
  • Yohay Elam
  • www.forexcrunch.com
Dollar/yen attempted to move above the cycle high but was rejected. On its way down, it lost the uptrend line of support. The drivers were both political and monetary. Is this the beginning of a downturn or a necessary correction on the way up? USD/JPY fundamental movers Donald Junior and Janet Yellen Donald Trump Junior is in trouble for...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
97589
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

ECB Meeting on Thursday.

Thomas Lawson, 2017.07.15 16:15

Fundamental Analysis eur/usd. ECB president Mario Draghi will be speaking at their monetary policy meeting on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. Traders are waiting for any hints on QE tapering of monthly bond purchases. Looking at the eur/usd daily chart there is a lot of Forex market expectations which is the reason for the eur/usd bullish uptrend. The US Federal Reserve are now taking a back seat. The European Central Bank are now in control of this Forex pair. We can expect this currency pair to continue making its way upward for the next few months. There will be pullbacks, but the buyers in this market will be a dominate force.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
97589
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)


Dollar Index"Next week brings no high-impact data out of the United States, and on Saturday the Federal Reserve enters the ‘quiet period’ before their next rate decision on July 26th. The bigger market-wide events are rate decisions out of Europe and Japan along with an updated inflation print out of the U.K.; and this will likely be where the bulk of market participants’ attention remains. From what we’ve seen of recent – both the ECB and the BoJ have made efforts to talk-down their currencies and, if they’re effective next week, this could bring a modicum of strength to the U.S. Dollar that would essentially amount to a retracement of the ‘bigger picture’ bearish trend."

Dollar Drives to Ten-Month Lows as U.S. Data Continues to Disappoint
Dollar Drives to Ten-Month Lows as U.S. Data Continues to Disappoint
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
This was a big week for the Greenback as the two biggest items on the calendar were USD-related. As has become the norm of recent, a relatively hawkish Federal Reserve was unable to inspire any lasting strength in the currency while U.S. data continued to disappoint. Markets’ attention has been focused squarely on economic prints out of the...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
97589
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD"Traders in the British Pound will be focused on Tuesday’s UK inflation data for June in the week ahead. That would certainly strengthen the position of the doves on the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, who only just outnumbered the hawks pressing for an interest-rate increase at their last meeting. With news likely too in the coming week of stronger UK retail sales, the impact on the British Pound could well be negative."

British Pound: All Eyes on the Inflation Data
British Pound: All Eyes on the Inflation Data
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
Broadly speaking, there is likely to be little change in either the headline inflation figure of 2.9% year/year or the core number of 2.6% but a small dip is possible and, either way, the steady climb in the growth of the consumer price index could now be near its peak. That would certainly strengthen the position of the doves on the Bank of...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
97589
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)


USD/JPY"On balance, this means the BOJ may need to resort to heavier artillery. Recently disappointing economic news-flow may have defused the need an immediate shake-up of the policy mix, deflating the risk-on swell a bit dialing back upward pressure on bond yields. Signaling the clear prospect of stimulus expansion seems necessary however. In fact, a status-quo announcement may well result in unhelpful Yen gains."

Yen Plunge May Resume as the Bank of Japan Asserts Dovish Stance
Yen Plunge May Resume as the Bank of Japan Asserts Dovish Stance
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
The Yen finds itself at something of a crossroads as the Bank of Japan mulls competing economic trends ahead of next week’s monetary policy announcement. On one hand, policymakers’ steadfast commitment to an ultra-dovish posture even as growth gathers steam seems to have finally created the backdrop for reflation. On the other, the central...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
97589
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD - "The first big risk event will come Monday with the release of China’s Gross Domestic Product numbers for the second quarter. The markets are looking for a chunky 6.8% annualized gain and it will be interesting indeed to see how the actual result affects the Aussie. The initial reaction will probably mirror the strength or weakness of the number, but the extent to which this price action holds will show us the way in which China is driving the currency now."

Australian Dollar: More Gains May Be Too Much to Ask
Australian Dollar: More Gains May Be Too Much to Ask
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
The Australian Dollar enjoyed a better week than might have been expected last week, mostly thanks to the broad-based US Dollar weakness which came along with Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Whether Ms. Yellen was really being especially less-hawkish or more-dovish on monetary policy when she said that the Fed was prepared to continue, or...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
97589
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CAD (based on the article)


USD/CAD - "With the Canadian economy now projected to grow an annualized 2.8% in 2017, the BoC may layout a more detailed exit strategy the as ‘output gap is now projected to close around the end of 2017, earlier than the Bank anticipated in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR).’ The material shift in central bank rhetoric suggests Governor Poloz and Co. may even consider a series of rate-hikes especially as ‘the factors behind soft inflation appear to be mostly temporary.’"

USD/CAD Post-BoC Weakness to Persist as Bearish Momentum Gathers Pace
USD/CAD Post-BoC Weakness to Persist as Bearish Momentum Gathers Pace
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
Even though the economic docket remains fairly light for the week ahead, USD/CAD may continue to exhibit a bearish behavior as market participants digest the fresh developments coming out of the Bank of Canada (BoC). and Co. deliver the first rate-hike since 2010, and the Canadian dollar may continue to appreciate against its U.S. counterpart...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
97589
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)


USD/CNH"At the same time, the risk of trade disputes with major counterparts remains elevated for China. The U.S.-China Comprehensive Economic Dialogue to take place on July 19th aims to avoid such conflicts and to develop a bilateral economic plan for the coming year. U.S.’s trade deficit with China is one of the issues that Trump administration focuses on. After the Trump-Xi summit in April, the two largest economies reached a 100-day trade deal, which was seen as the first step to resolve disagreements on trade. As China is still in the transition period from export-driven to domestic-consumption-driven, it will have to continue to rely on the global demand for a considerable amount of time. As a result, reaching an agreement yet not compromising too much will be a delicate dance for China to play in the meeting next week."

Yuan Looks to China’s Q2 GDP, US-China Economic Talks
Yuan Looks to China’s Q2 GDP, US-China Economic Talks
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
The Chinese Yuan gained against the U.S. Dollar this week, with the USD/CNH approaching a key support of 6.7585. The Dollar weakness continued following the Fed Chair Yellen’s comments on the “Fed put” at the two-day testimony, as well as worse-than-expected U.S. CPI and retail sales prints. Looking forward, China’s second quarter GDP to be...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
97589
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)


XAU/USD - "The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Retail Sales figures came in shy of consensus estimates on Friday, fueling another sell-off in the dollar. The data comes on the back of this week’s semi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony before congress where Fed Chair Janet Yellen cited a more dovish outlook on monetary policy. The committee judged that “because the neutral rate is currently quite low by historical standards, the federal funds rate would not have to rise all that much further to get to a neutral policy stance.” At the same time, Yellen left the door open for further easing measures should market conditions deteriorate."

Gold Prices Rebound From Key Support As Yellen Softens Rate Expectations
Gold Prices Rebound From Key Support As Yellen Softens Rate Expectations
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
Gold prices rebounded this week with the precious metal rallying 1.33% to trade at 1228 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The advance has been supported by continued weakness in the greenback with the DXY down more than 0.7%. The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Retail Sales figures came in shy of consensus estimates on Friday, fueling...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
97589
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)


Crude Oil"While Crude Oil rose this week to the tune of ~5%, there were other factors that caught the attention of investors like the surprisingly weak US CPI on Friday, which shows how difficult of a job the Fed has a head of themselves. It is important to note that a key component of inflation is energy, but we could may still be a respectable distance away from seeing crude put upside pressure on inflation measures."

Crude Oil Rises Into 55-DMA On 5% Weekly Gain, Production Rises
Crude Oil Rises Into 55-DMA On 5% Weekly Gain, Production Rises
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
While Crude Oil rose this week to the tune of ~5%, there were other factors that caught the attention of investors like the surprisingly weak US CPI on Friday, which shows how difficult of a job the Fed has a head of themselves. It is important to note that a key component of inflation is energy, but we could may still be a respectable distance...
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