Press review - page 497

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)

USD/JPY - "The BoJ interest rate decision may generate limited market interest as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda notes ‘there is not much likelihood that we will further lower the negative rate,’ and the central bank may continue to endorses a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as officials monitor the impact of the non-standard measures on the real economy. However, Governor Kuroda and Co. may keep the door open to further embark on the easing-cycle as they struggle to achieve the 2% target for price growth, and the diverging paths may continue to foster a long-term bullish outlook for USD/JPY especially as the BoJ strives to keep the 10-year yield close to zero."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)

AUD/USD - "The latest Commitment of Traders snapshot from the Chicago Board Options exchange showed the largest net-long position in the Aussie since May, 2016. Now these numbers cover the week of February 28. That’s’ quite historic by foreign-exchange market standards. It’s possible that our speculative friends have been caught out by the vehemence of Fed hawkishness since and bailed out. But it’s also possible that they didn’t. And in that case. there’s clearly significant bullish support for the currency, Fed and all. Moreover, various major banks worried aloud this week that Australian interest-rate pricing might be too low. At the moment, markets think rates could be on hold all through this year, and possibly well into next. But Citibank noted that Australian economic newsflow has “increasingly outperformed analysts’ expectations.” It went no further but UBS commented last week that, “the current record low cash rate might now just be too low.”"

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)

USD/CNH - "Next week, China will release the report for growth in fixed assets. This gauge may not have much direct impact to the Yuan rate but it is a key indicator to evaluate China’s economy. As of the end of 2016, the expansion in fixed assets has dropped to 8.1%, the lowest level in 15 years; private investment in fixed assets, accounting for 60% of total investment, has improved slightly to 3.2% in December from a record-low of 2.1% in August, but this is still significantly lower than levels in previous years. As a major contributor to the GDP, growth in fixed assets may determine whether the country can achieve the 6.5% economic growth target in 2017."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)

GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Gold prices fell for the second consecutive week with the precious metal down 2.67% to trade at 1201 ahead of the New York close on Friday. Bullion is down more than 5% off the yearly high and has been fueled by expectations for higher borrowing costs from the Fed. Heading into next week, the quarterly FOMC policy meeting will be central focus with gold approaching key near-term support targets of interest."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)

Crude Oil - "The EIA figures inevitably prompted worries about the balance between supply and demand as US shale extraction capacity grows. With a lower breakeven price than many other sources of oil, fears that US output will flood the markets sent them into a spin, along with energy stocks and the currencies of oil-producing countries like Norway, Russia and Canada."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for S&P 500 (based on the article)

S&P 500 - "In the U.S., all ‘high’ impact economic events are slated for Wednesday outside of the UofM Confidence Survey on Friday. Wednesday kicks off with the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Advance Retail Sales figures in the earlier part of the day, but markets are unlikely to react much with the FOMC rate decision later in the day. The market is pricing in a nearly 100% chance of a 25-bps rate hike, so barring a 0 or 50-bps move, attention will be on the language of the Fed and any forward guidance."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dax Index (based on the article)

Dax Index - "There isn’t a whole lot of key data this week out of Germany or the Eurozone, with the only ‘high’ impact data slated for Tuesday when the German ZEW Survey will be released. The market will likely focus on how risk markets perform surrounding the FOMC and BoJ meetings."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Nikkei 225 (based on the article)

Nikkei 225 - "The big event out of Japan will come on Thursday, with the BoJ meeting. Expectations are for a fairly benign outcome, with the central bank not expected to make any changes to current policy. However, with that said, as per usual, expect the unexpected and manage risk accordingly."

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speaks and 11 pips range price movement 

2017-03-13 13:30 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech at a joint conference organized by the European Central Bank and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, in Frankfurt.

==========

From official report:

• "There are many reasons why it is a priority today in the euro area to address weak productivity growth. But while some progress can be made in innovation, it is not in my view the sole issue. Equally important for the euro area is to facilitate and encourage the spread of new technology from the frontier to the laggard firms."
• "Of course, creating the right regulatory framework and market conditions to nurture innovation and promote its transformation into new products and processes is complex, and there is no particular established winning formula. But there are a number of countries in the euro area that have proven relatively more successful at putting in place an effective “innovation ecosystem”."
• "Simply by diffusing better the technology we already have in the euro area, we could make sizeable gains in productivity. In other words, there is much we can still do to reverse the aggregate productivity slowdown and dispel pessimism about our future."

==========

EUR/USD M5: 11 pips range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speaks news event

‌

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Industrial Production and range price movement 

2017-03-14 02:00 GMT | [CNY - Industrial Production]

• past data is 6.0%
• forecast data is 6.1%
• actual data is 6.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Industrial Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

==========

From marketwatch article:

• "Industrial production in China expanded 6.3% in the first two months of 2017 from a year earlier, accelerating from 6.0% growth in December, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Tuesday."
• "Value-added industrial output, a rough proxy for economic growth, exceeded a forecast for a 6.1% expansion by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal."

==========

USD/CNH M5: 1range price movement by China Industrial Production news event

‌