Press review - page 494

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)


USD/JPY"However, Chair Yellen concluded that ‘a gradual removal of accommodation is likely to be appropriate,’ and it seems as though the central bank may tame the broader outlook for monetary policy as ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up, on net, in recent months, although they remain low.’ With Fed officials scheduled to release their updated projections in March, the fresh estimates may reflect minor changes to the growth and inflation forecast, but a further reduction in long-run Fed Fund forecast may drag on market expectations and undermine the recent strength in the U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, the bar remains high for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to move away from its easing-cycle as inflation remains well below the 2% target, and Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Co. may continue to endorse a dovish outlook at the March 16 interest rate decision as the Balance of Payment (BoP) report is anticipated to show a trade deficit in January. The deviating paths for monetary policy continues to instill a long-term bullish outlook for USD/JPY, and the BoJ looks poised to further expand its balance sheet as the central bank pledges to keep the 10-year yield around zero."

How Much More Run for Record US Equities, Dollar on Fed Certainty?
How Much More Run for Record US Equities, Dollar on Fed Certainty?
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
US equities have charged to record highs while the Dollar has extended its restrained but steady approach amid certainty of a March Fed hike. These
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "The week ahead is fairly light with U.K. data, with Friday being the highlight as we receive a batch of medium-importance announcements on industrial and manufacturing production (January figures), trade balance figures (January) and the NIESR GDP estimate for the month of February. The bigger drive to the British currency in the week ahead will likely emanate from foreign themes, such as a European Central Bank meeting on Thursday and U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. As Sterling tests historically weak-values on the chart, the litmus for continued losses will likely continue to increase; meaning that data will likely need to print extremely poorly for the longer-term zone of support around the 1.2000 figure to finally give way."

How Much More Run for Record US Equities, Dollar on Fed Certainty?
How Much More Run for Record US Equities, Dollar on Fed Certainty?
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
US equities have charged to record highs while the Dollar has extended its restrained but steady approach amid certainty of a March Fed hike. These
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)


USD/CNH"The New Yuan loans, a major indicator that may impact the PBOC’s monetary policy, is expected to drop to 920 billion Yuan in February from 2.030 trillion Yuan in the month prior, the second-highest level on record. In order to curb excess liquidity flowing into the housing market and other financial markets, the PBOC has been delicately managing its cash injections through open market operations. The Central Bank withdrew a net of 280 billion Yuan this week and has been removing liquidity from markets for the seventh consecutive trading days. The regulator targets to bring monetary policy back to neutral from slightly loose. Total new credit issued, home loans and property prices are three key gauges that the regulator may use to evaluate whether monetary policy has returned to neutral."

How Much More Run for Record US Equities, Dollar on Fed Certainty?
How Much More Run for Record US Equities, Dollar on Fed Certainty?
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
US equities have charged to record highs while the Dollar has extended its restrained but steady approach amid certainty of a March Fed hike. These
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)


GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Logic would dictate that a rate hike from the Fed would drive the dollar higher and gold, which yields nothing, lower. That pattern has been seen in the price action of the past couple days. However, if we pan out we can view how the two recent Fed rate hikes were followed by rising gold prices. It is clear from the chart below that increasing rates and even the recent increase in rate hike expectations has driven gold price higher."

China’s Neutral Monetary Policy - What Does it Mean for Markets?
China’s Neutral Monetary Policy - What Does it Mean for Markets?
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
, which almost doubled the December read to 2.30 trillion Yuan and is the second-highest level on record. Whether the level is too high and how this will impact China’s monetary policy has become a heated topic following the release. A working paper from the PBOC as well as remarks from PBOC’s Deputy Governor Yi Gang may give out some clues...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for S&P 500 (based on the article)


S&P 500"The S&P 500 rose to new record highs on Wednesday following Trump’s congressional address the night before, but backed off a bit late-week. In a speech on Friday, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen effectively said the Fed plans to move at a faster pace, but not necessarily more hikes than previously anticipated. The market is expecting a rate hike at the March meeting. Given this built-in expectation, outside of a knee-jerk intra-day reaction, the net impact of Yellen’s speech on stocks was negligible. This coming week, the ECB on Thursday has market-moving potential, and then on Friday market participants will turn their attention to the U.S. jobs report. Neither are anticipated at this time to ‘rock’ current sentiment."

How Much More Run for Record US Equities, Dollar on Fed Certainty?
How Much More Run for Record US Equities, Dollar on Fed Certainty?
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
US equities have charged to record highs while the Dollar has extended its restrained but steady approach amid certainty of a March Fed hike. These
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dax Index (based on the article)


Dax Index"This coming week we have the ECB meeting on Thursday, which could certainly be a source of volatility; most likely, if it is, it will spawn from the press conference with Mario Draghi, as the central bank isn’t expected to make any material changes to current policy. Any strong move which may unfold in the DAX is likely to be inverse to the euro, and with that said, if holding positions in both, risk should be managed accordingly."

How Much More Run for Record US Equities, Dollar on Fed Certainty?
How Much More Run for Record US Equities, Dollar on Fed Certainty?
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
US equities have charged to record highs while the Dollar has extended its restrained but steady approach amid certainty of a March Fed hike. These
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for FTSE 100 (based on the article)


FTSE 100"The FTSE 100 benefited significantly on Wednesday from strong risk appetite along with a declining pound. Looking ahead to potential drivers this coming week, there aren’t any ‘high’ impact events on the docket for the U.K. The focus is likely to be on general risk appetite, pound weakness, the ECB, and ‘NFP Friday’."

How Much More Run for Record US Equities, Dollar on Fed Certainty?
How Much More Run for Record US Equities, Dollar on Fed Certainty?
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
US equities have charged to record highs while the Dollar has extended its restrained but steady approach amid certainty of a March Fed hike. These
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  
Bitcoin Is Better Than Gold; or 1,259.91 resistance level to be testing for the bullish breakout to be continuing (based on the article)

‌‌
Bitcoin/USD daily price is above Ichimoku cloud to be located in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on bullish breakout which was started in the beginning of the January this year by breaking Ichimoku kumo to above with the bullish reversal. For now, the price is on testing resistance level at 1,259.91 for the bullish breakout to be continuing.


  • "The Bitcoin Investment Trust Shares have almost tripled in value in the last twelve months, gaining more than 30 percent in the last three months alone. Meanwhile, SPDR Gold shares are down 3.78 percent in the last twelve months and up 4.49 percent in the last three months."
  • "Apparently, Bitcoin is more popular than gold among investors."
  • "The last three months in the digital currency rally, for instance, has coincided with India and Venezuela’s efforts to get rid of old currency notes. Prime Minister Modi and President Maduro have very little in common -- except they have pursued policies late last year that replace large notes in circulation with new notes (India) or with coins (Venezuela)."
  • "Bitcoin supply is expected to be limited to 21 million. The supply of gold, on the other hand, is expected to increase anytime its price rises, as it provides an incentive for gold miners to mine for gold."
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Retail Sales and 16 pips range price movement 

2017-03-06 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From official report:

  • "The trend estimate rose 0.2% in January 2017. This follows a rise of 0.3% in December 2016 and a rise of 0.3% in November 2016."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.4% in January 2017. This follows a fall of 0.1% in December 2016 and a rise of 0.1% in November 2016."

==========

AUD/USD M5: 16 pips range price movement by Australian Retail Sales news event

8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Jan 2017
  • www.abs.gov.au
JANUARY KEY FIGURES JANUARY KEY POINTS CURRENT PRICES The trend estimate rose 0.2% in January 2017. This follows a rise of 0.3% in December 2016 and a rise of 0.3% in November 2016. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.4% in January 2017. This follows a fall of 0.1% in December 2016 and a rise of 0.1% in November 2016. In trend terms...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Deutshe Bank: €8 billion capital increase may not be enough (based on the article)

‌‌Daily share price is located above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA in the bullish area of the chart: the price was bounced from 20.70 resistance level to 19.04 levels to be crossing for the secondary correction to be continuing.


  • "Shares  are down 6.2% at €17.95, cutting about €1.6 billion, or $1.7 billion, off its market capitalization to around €24.8 billion. If the stock closes at that level, it would mark its lowest settlement price since Feb. 10, according to FactSet data. U.S. listed shares of the bank were down 1.9% in premarket trade."
  • "At Citigroup, analysts kept a “sell” and “high risk” rating on Deutsche Bank “given the low return profile and significant strategic execution risks.” Citigroup also raised concerns the share sale announced on Monday won’t be enough to shore up the Deutsche Bank’s balance sheet."

Deutshe Bank takes $1.7 billion hit to market cap as bank talks stock sale
Deutshe Bank takes $1.7 billion hit to market cap as bank talks stock sale
  • Sara Sjolin
  • www.marketwatch.com
German banking giant Deutsche Bank AG has just announced a €8 billion share sale and investors aren’t taking the latest capital-raising initiative in stride, pushing the stock sharply lower in European trade. Shares are down 6.2% at €17.95, cutting about €1.6 billion, or $1.7 billion, off its market...