Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Brokerage Company - page 210
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
USD/JPY: technical levels
On Monday USD/JPY recoiled down from the 100-day MA at 79.60. At the moment the pair’s trading below this level, but still supported by the 200-day MA at 79.22.
Further support lies at 79.06 (5-day MA), 78.90 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent advance) and 78.60 (the top of the previous range), 78.30, 78.15. As long as support at 78.60 holds, we’d look for the chance to buy the pair.
Bank of America: “US dollar may be poised for more gains versus Japan’s currency if it breaks the top of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud at 80.55/60. A weekly close through here would reinstate the cyclical turn in trend view from USD/JPY bearish to bullish.”
Chart. Daily USD/JPY
Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD
According to Commerzbank analysts, GBP/USD growth remains limited by the $1.5762/80 resistance area. If the pair manages to break above these levels, a rise towards $1.5805 (April minimums) and $1.5904 (61.8% Fib. retracement of a May decline) will become possible.
However, as long as the daily close above the $1.5762/80 area is not made, a drop to $1.5575 (August 10 minimum) is on the cards. Next support lies at $1.5490 (August minimum).
Chart. Daily GBP/USD
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
MIG Bank: trading USD/CAD
As we've expected, the pair USD/CAD is on its way down to 0.9800 as last week it breached support of 0.9900.
Analysts at MIG Bank claim that the pair is at the last stage of decline from 1.0447. In their view, the 0.9800 level represents strong support. The bank recommends setting buy limit at 0.9835 targeting 0.9970/1.0085/1.0232 and stopping at 0.9700.
Chart. Daily USD/CAD
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
Credit Suisse: bearish on EUR/GBP
According to specialists at Credit Suisse, EUR/GBP may drop to 0.7695 (October 2008 minimum), if it breaks below the support at 0.7755 (July minimum). Specialists remain bearish on the euro, even if prices remain in a tight range near-term.
Chart. Weekly EUR/GDP
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
August 22: forex news
Demand for the high-yielding currencies is low as the risk aversion increased. The Australian and New Zealand dollars weaken following the Asian stocks ahead of tomorrow PMI releases in Europe and China. Reports are predicted to show continued contraction in German and French manufacturing. The flash euro-area manufacturing PMI is to indicate contraction for a 13 consecutive month. A report on Chinese manufacturing from HSBC is also due. What’s more, AUD and NZD are under pressure ahead of the housing market data (14:00 GMT) and the Fed meeting minutes (18:00 GMT) as the expectations for QE3 are likely to drop.
AUD/USD slid to $1.0435 levels, while NZD/USD – below $0.8100. USD/CAD bounced back from an almost four-month low after touching 0.9840 yesterday.
EUR/USD put on the brakes after adding more than 100 pips on Tuesday. The pair’s trading a bit on the downside consolidating after reaching $1.2487 yesterday. Again there’s no major macroeconomic EUR-related data today. Germany will sell up to 5 billion euro in 2-year notes at 06:00 GMT. Yesterday’s Spanish auction was successful enough and the nation’s 10-year yields declined for the 10th day in a row to 6.2%. Also note that more volatility this week may come from the meeting of European leaders. Today Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras meets Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the Euro Group.
GBP/USD has conquered new highs around $1.5800 yesterday. USD/JPY kept descending from more than a month maximum at 79.65 to the support of 200-day MA. USD/CHF dropped to August minimum of 0.9620.
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
Key options expiring today
Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).
Here are the key options expiring today:
EUR/USD: $1.2300, $1.2450, $1.2460, $1.2500, $1.2525;
GBP/USD, $1.5620, $1.5785, $1.5800;
USD/JPY: 79.15, 79.50, 79.65;
AUD/USD: $1.0450, $1.0500;
EUR/GBP: 0.7780;
AUD/NZD: 1.3010.
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
Westpac: loonie may keep strengthening
Although some experts expect USD/CAD reverse upwards, analysts at Westpac have are bullish on loonie.
The specialists point out that Canadian economic data released so far is mixed: GDP increased in June, but so did the trade deficit and the July unemployment rate. Even so, the Bank of Canada has “maintained its hawkish rhetoric” and it’s “potential plus for the Canadian dollar.”
In addition, Westpac thinks that CAD was draw support from investor positioning. Net long loonie positions rose at the beginning of August, but they are “still only a third of the long positions in May,” so there are plenty of investors who could pile into the currency if they see signs that loonie strength is coming.
According to Westpac, if market conditions keep improving, “prospects for higher Canadian policy rates should support the loonie’s broad outperformance. Long-speculative positioning is relatively light, which should also be a positive for the currency.”
Image from canada.com
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
AUD/USD: slowed uptrend
On Wednesday AUD/USD touched $1.0430 and trades below the yesterday’s minimum. The pair broke below the strong support at $1.0435 as the BHP Billiton, Anglo-Australian multinational mining company, posted a 35% fall in H2 profits. AUD/USD remains close to the lower boundary of the upward channel, existing since June.
It’s interesting to note that this time the downward correction within the upward channel is flat in comparison to previous steep waves of correction and reminds of a “rounded top” pattern. In our view, a daily close below $1.0410 (August 17 minimum) will pave the ground for a further decline, potentially to $1.0290 (200-day MA). If Aussie breaches this support, this would be a strong bearish signal. On the upside strong resistance lies at $1.0475 (beginning of a May decline) and at $1.0500.
Chart. Daily AUD/USD
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
EUR/USD: news from the battlefield
EUR/USD is consolidating after reaching the 7-week high at $1.2487 yesterday.
Commerzbank: The outlook for EUR/USD is bullish as long as it’s trading above Tuesday’s minimum at $1.2342. Euro may rise to $1.2500 and probably to $1.2600 before the medium term downtrend resumes its course. Medium term bearish outlook is while “the 1.2705/48 resistance area caps on a weekly New York closing basis”.
There is the talk of options barrier at $1.2500. Barrier option is a type of option whose payoff depends on whether or not the underlying asset has reached or exceeded a predetermined price. Once the price gets to option barrier both buyers and sellers liven up making the trade more unpredictable. Support/resistance levels are shown on the chart.
BBH: “The euro has risen not on action but on expectations about what the ECB could do, but it remains to be seen if these expectations are followed up with action. We don't know how long these expectations can keep pushing up the euro, and in the meantime, it remains vulnerable to any bad news.”
Chart. H4 EUR/USD
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!
GBP/USD broke above $1.5800
GBP/USD finally broke above the $1.5762/80 resistance area. Yesterday the pair didn’t manage to close above the $1.5800 level, but today reached $1.5816 and remains above the 50% Fib. retracement of a May decline.
If today’s US data releases (FOMC meeting minutes and existing home sales) will give any hint about QE3, GBP/USD is likely to close the day above $1.5800. If not, support is seen at $1.5745 (100-day MA), $1.5730 (upper boundary of the daily Ichimoku cloud), $1.5715 (200-day MA) and at $1.5700. On a weekly chart the pair entered the Ichimoku cloud, the upper boundary lies at $1.0600.
Chart. Daily GBP/USD
Have a profitable trade with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!