AUD/USD - bounced from .7749 resistance for correction (based on the article)
Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bulliosh area of the chart. The price was bounced from resistance level at 0.7749 to below for the secondary correction to be started. If the price breaks 0.7490 support level so we may see the bearish reversal, otherwise - ranging within the levels waiting for the strong trend to be started.
EUR/USD: intra-day ranging for the bullish to be resumed or for the correction to be started (based on the article)
H4 price is located above Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is on ranging within 1.0824/1.0769 support/resistance levels since 21st of march this year waiting for the bullish trend to be resumed or for the secondary correction to be started.
Understanding Forex Risk Management
Betting Strategies"There are three basic ways to take a bet: Martingale, anti-Martingale or speculative. Speculation comes from the Latin word "speculari," meaning to spy out or look forward."
Know the Odds"So, the first rule in risk management is to calculate the odds of your trade being successful. To do that, you need to grasp both fundamental and technical analysis. You will need to understand the dynamics of the market in which you are trading, and also know where the likely psychological price trigger points are, which a price chart can help you decide."
Liquidity"The next risk factor to study is liquidity. Liquidity means that there are a sufficient number of buyers and sellers at current prices to easily and efficiently take your trade. In the case of the forex markets, liquidity, at least in the major currencies, is never a problem. This liquidity is known as market liquidity, and in the spot cash forex market, it accounts for some $2 trillion per day in trading volume."
Risk per Trade"Another aspect of risk is determined by how much trading capital you have available. Risk per trade should always be a small percentage of your total capital. A good starting percentage could be 2% of your available trading capital. So, for example, if you have $5000 in your account, the maximum loss allowable should be no more than 2%. With these parameters your maximum loss would be $100 per trade. A 2% loss per trade would mean you can be wrong 50 times in a row before you wipe out your account. This is an unlikely scenario if you have a proper system for stacking the odds in your favor."
Leverage"The next big risk magnifier is leverage. Leverage is the use of the bank's or broker's money rather than the strict use of your own. The spot forex market is a very leveraged market, in that you could put down a deposit of just $1,000 to actually trade $100,000. This is a 100:1 leverage factor. A one pip loss in a 100:1 leveraged situation is equal to $10. So if you had 10 mini lots in the trade, and you lost 50 pips, your loss would be $500, not $50."
Risk Management Techniques For Active Traders
Planning Your Trades"As Chinese military general Sun Tzu's famously said: "Every battle is won before it is fought." The phrase implies that planning and strategy - not the battles - win wars. Similarly, successful traders commonly quote the phrase: "Plan the trade and trade the plan." Just like in war, planning ahead can often mean the difference between success and failure."
Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Points"A stop-loss point is the price at which a trader will sell a stock and take a loss on the trade. Often this happens when a trade does not pan out the way a trader hoped. The points are designed to prevent the "it will come back" mentality and limit losses before they escalate. For example, if a stock breaks below a key support level, traders often sell as soon as possible."
How to Effectively Set Stop-Loss Points"Setting stop-loss and take-profit points is often done using technical analysis, but fundamental analysis can also play a key role in timing. For example, if a trader is holding a stock ahead of earnings as excitement builds, he or she may want to sell before the news hits the market if expectations have become too high, regardless of whether the take-profit price was hit."
Calculating Expected Return"Setting stop-loss and take-profit points is also necessary to calculate expected return. The importance of this calculation cannot be overstated, as it forces traders to think through their trades and rationalize them. As well, it gives them a systematic way to compare various trades and select only the most profitable ones."
[ (Probability of Gain) x (Take Profit % Gain) ] + [ (Probability of Loss) x (Stop Loss % Loss) ]
MQL5 WIZARD: HOW TO CREATE A RISK AND MONEY MANAGEMENT MODULE
MetaTrader 5 provides a powerful tool that allows you to quickly check various trading ideas. This is generation of Expert Advisors using the MQL5 Wizard on the basis of ready trading strategies. An Expert Advisor created with the MQL5 Wizard, is based on four pillars - four base classes:...
USD/JPY Daily- waiting for the direction of the bearish trend to be resumed or the secondary rally to be started (based on the article)
Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition located below Ichimoku cloud. For now, the price is on narrow ranging within 110.62/111.58 s/r levels waiting for the direction of the bearish trend to be resumed or the secondary rally to be started.
"Japanese Money markets via, the 3-month JPY LIBOR have risen more aggressively after the Dovish-Hike than USD LIBOR. The decreasing premium has aligned with JPY strength against the USD. While the BoJ is not expected to give the Fed a run for the mosthawkish central bank, a decreasing premium could continue to boost JPY against USD should the trend continue.""The focus should now be on signs of continuation that a breakdown from Bear Channel support may open up a move toward 110/108 on JPY strength, which aligns with the 50, & 61.8% retracement of the post-election price range. Despite the bearish tone, a trade above 114.48 would show an overlapping price structure that would negate a near-term Bearish view. Until then, we’ll keep an eye for a price break of channel support given the larger environment that may support pending JPY strength and USD weakness."
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, Gold (XAU/USD) and USD/CNH: U.S. Durable Goods Orders
2017-03-24 12:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.
From abcnews article:
EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events
XAU/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events
USD/CNH M5: range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events
Weekly Outlook: 2017, March 26 - April 02 (based on the article)
German Ifo Business Climate, US CB Consumer Confidence, Stephen Poloz speech US Crude Oil Inventories, Unemployment claims, GDP data from the US and Canada are the main events on forex calendar.
Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, March 26 - April 02 (based on the article)
EUR/USD had a mixed week. The last week of March features a key survey and fresh inflation figures. Is the ECB’s optimism justified?
Dollar Index - "On the data front, the third revision of fourth-quarter GDP figures is expected to show a narrow upgrade while the Fed’s favored PCE inflation gauge is expected to leave core price growth at 1.7 percent in February, unchanged from the prior month. Absent dramatic surprises to the upside, such outcomes are unlikely to generate a strong response from price action."