Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for AUD/USD - page 4

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.07 06:04

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate and 41 pips range price movement 

2017-03-07 03:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

  • past data is 1.50%
  • forecast data is 1.50%
  • actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

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From news.com.au article:

  • "THE Reserve Bank has left the official cash rate on hold at 1.5 per cent for the sixth meeting in a row."
  • "Laing+Simmons managing director Leanne Pilkington said that with interest rates likely to be at their lowest point in the cycle, the time was ripe to help young Australians break into the market, called on the NSW Government to follow Victoria’s lead by abolishing stamp duty for first home buyers."

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AUD/USD M5: 41 pips range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event

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AUD/USD H8: the price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. Bullish retracement pattern is forming by the price for the secondary rally to be started by the price to be bouncing from support level at 0.7499 to above for the rally to be continuing.

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.11 18:14

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD - "The latest Commitment of Traders snapshot from the Chicago Board Options exchange showed the largest net-long position in the Aussie since May, 2016. Now these numbers cover the week of February 28. That’s’ quite historic by foreign-exchange market standards. It’s possible that our speculative friends have been caught out by the vehemence of Fed hawkishness since and bailed out. But it’s also possible that they didn’t. And in that case. there’s clearly significant bullish support for the currency, Fed and all. Moreover, various major banks worried aloud this week that Australian interest-rate pricing might be too low. At the moment, markets think rates could be on hold all through this year, and possibly well into next. But Citibank noted that Australian economic newsflow has “increasingly outperformed analysts’ expectations.” It went no further but UBS commented last week that, “the current record low cash rate might now just be too low.”"


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.16 08:45

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and 37 pips range price movement 

2017-03-16 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 13.5K
  • forecast data is 16.3K
  • actual data is -6.4K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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From official report:

  • "Employment decreased 6,400 to 11,998,800. Full-time employment increased 27,100 to 8,158,900 and part-time employment decreased 33,500 to 3,840,000."
  • "Unemployment increased 26,000 to 748,100. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work increased 10,800 to 523,800 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work increased 15,100 to 224,300."

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AUD/USD M5: 37 pips range price movement by Australian Employment Change news event



 
Sergey Golubev:

wht is that sir
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.18 14:29

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD - "For the moment, AUD/USD is holding on to most of its Fed-inspired gains. But it’s still unable to close the gap between this year’s peaks and the highs it fell from right after the US Presidential election last November ushered in the “Trump trade.” The pair has failed at those peaks twice this year, and the coming week offers little obvious sign that it can break through them, even if it offers few clear hazards either."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.23 12:29

AUD/USD - bounced from .7749 resistance for correction (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bulliosh area of the chart. The price was bounced from resistance level at 0.7749 to below for the secondary correction to be started. If the price breaks 0.7490 support level so we may see the bearish reversal, otherwise - ranging within the levels waiting for the strong trend to be started.


  • "The Australian Dollarput in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, hinting prices may have topped below 0.78 figure against the US Dollar once again. A reversal lower would mark the second time that prices failed to overcome resistance dating back to in August 2016. "
  • "Near-term support is at 0.7659, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a test of the 23.6% level at 0.7604. Alternatively, a push above double top resistance at 0.7760 paves the way for a test of the April 2016 high at 0.7835."
  • "Prices are too close to near-term support to justify entering a short trade from a risk/reward perspective. Either a bounce or a confirmed breach of near-term support is needed to pave the way for an actionable entry opportunity. In the meantime, opting for the sidelines seems most prudent."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.25 12:32

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD - "In fundamental forecast terms then, it’s hard to see this week as anything but ‘steady as she goes’ for AUD/USD. And that means the pair probably heads lower, if not catastrophically so. This thesis might just be threatened by Chinese manufacturing data which comes out on Friday in the form of the March Purchasing Managers Index for the sector. Given the Aussie Dollar’s sometime role as the market’s favorite liquid China proxy, strength in this index could see the currency end next week with a flourish."


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