USD/CAD Bears Lose Confidence As A Doji Emerges (adapted from dailyfx article)
USD/CAD has posted a Doji on
the daily, which signals reluctance from the bears to drag the pair
lower. With a medium-term uptrend intact the latest pullback could prove
transitory. Clearance of former support-turned-resistance at 1.1380 may
open a retest of the recent peak at 1.1460.
Interesting news about robots coming to the forex market ... :-)
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Treading Water Above 1.13 (based on dailyfx article)
The US Dollar
is digesting losses above the 1.13 figure against its Canadian namesake
having run into resistance below the 1.15 mark. Near-term support is at
1.1311, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a
daily closing basis exposing a rising trend line at 1.1262.
Alternatively, a reversal above the 23.6% Fib expansion at 1.1435 clears
the way for a test of the 38.2% threshold at 1.1531.
Trading the News: Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (adapted from dailyfx article)
The Euro-Zone’s 3Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may generate a
larger correction in EUR/USD as the monetary union is expected to return
to growth after stagnating during the three-months through June.
Why Is This Event Important:
However, a rebound in the growth rate may do little to heighten the
appeal of the single-currency as the European Central Bank (ECB) is
widely expected to implement more non-standard measures in December, and
the ongoing deviation in the policy outlook continues to foster a
bearish outlook for EUR/USD as the Federal Reserve moves away from its
easing cycle.Nevertheless, high unemployment paired with the slowdown in private
consumption may continue to drag on economic activity, and a dismal
growth print may put increased pressure on the ECB to offer additional
monetary support amid the growth threat for deflation.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish EUR Trade: 3Q GDP Climbs 0.1% or Greater
Audio - How Prepared Are You?? with Joel Greenberg
Since the 1980’s, the retirement industry has transformed. Shifting the
retirement investment responsibility from your employer to you. Most
have no clue how to achieve the rate of return needed to retire
comfortably, and make those funds last 20+ years! Joel Greenberg joins Merlin and breaks down some of the considerations investors should be looking to make when planning their retirement.
GBPUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
The Bank of England (BoE) Minutes are widely expected to show another
7-2 split within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as the majority
retains a wait-and-see approach, and the policy meeting minutes may do
little to increase the appeal of the British Pound as the central bank
curbs its growth and inflation forecast.
Even though the BoE remains on course to raise the benchmark interest
rate in 2015, the downward revisions delivered in the quarterly
inflation report favors a bearish outlook for GBP/USD
as Governor Mark Carney adopts a more dovish tone for monetary policy
and warns of the ‘large disinflation pressures’ coming from abroad.
With that said, easing interest rate expectations is likely produce
further headwinds for the sterling, but positive data prints coming out
of the U.K. may generate a near-term correction in GBP/USD as the
central bank sees the economy returning to normal.
As a result, a rebound in the U.K’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
along with a marked pickup in Retail Sales may spur a bullish reaction
in GBP/USD, but we will for an extension of the series of lower highs
& lows in the exchange rate as it retains the bearish trend dating
back to July.
In turn, we will retain the approach to sell-bounces in GBP/USD and
watch former support around the 1.5890-1.5900 for new resistance, with
the next downside region of interest coming in around 1.5540-50, the
78.6% Fibonacci retracement from the August 2013 low.
AUDUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
The Australian Dollar has witnessed some surprising resilience over the
past week with it posting modest gains against most of its peers. The
driving force behind the small advance may have been a general drive to
yield, given similar gains were witnessed for risk sentiment proxies
(S&P 500). Meanwhile, regional economic data once again proved
uneventful for the commodity currency.
The coming week brings the release of the RBA’s November Meeting
Minutes. The decision itself proved a non-event for the AUD and given
the fairly well broadcast views from the Board, the Minutes are unlikely
to deliver anyrevelations for traders. Similarly, upcoming Chinese
data may see another muted response from the currency since it would
likely take a significant deterioration over an extended period to
generate a response from RBA officials. This could leave the AUD to
continue to seek guidance from sources outside of domestic monetary
The potential for general positive risk sentiment to act as a
sustainable fuel source for the Aussie may be limited. This is given
implied volatility levels are near their 2014 highs, suggesting traders
are anticipating some strong swings amongst the major currency pairs.
This in turn may detract from the carry appeal of the Aussie and could
limit the scope for further gains.
Speculative trader positioning (reflected in the latest COT report)
reveals short positions are still some distance away from the extremes
witnessed early last year. In turn this suggests the short AUD trade
Weekly outlook: November 17 - 21
The dollar was lower against the euro late Friday after data showed that
U.S. inflation expectations fell in an otherwise upbeat report on
consumer confidence for this month.
The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer
sentiment index rose to a seven year high of 89.4, better than forecasts
of 87.5 and up from October’s reading of 86.9.
However the report
also showed that consumers expected annual inflation of 2.6% this year,
down from expectations for inflation of 2.9% in October.
The US dollar index,
which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six
major currencies, was down 0.25% to 87.61 in late trade, off the
four-and-a-half year highs of 88.36 hit earlier in the session.
was up 0.40% to 1.2526 in late trade, after falling to lows of 1.2399
earlier in the session after data showed that U.S. retail sales rose
0.3% in October, ahead of forecasts for a 0.2% increase.
was up 0.44% to 116.28 late Friday, off the seven year highs of 116.82
struck immediately following the release of the U.S. retail sales data.
The euro rose to six year highs against the broadly weaker yen on Friday, with EUR/JPY advancing 0.86% to 145.67 in late trade.
the euro zone, data on Friday showed that the economy expanded 0.2% in
the three months to September and grew 0.6% from the same period a year
Germany avoided a recession, posting growth of 0.1% in
the last quarter, while France grew by a slightly stronger than expected
0.3%. Greece exited a six-year recession, but Italy fell back into
recession, posting a contraction of 0.1%.
The weak growth figures did little to alter expectations for more easing measures from the European Central Bank.
Elsewhere, the Swiss franc rose to 26-month highs against the euro on Friday, with EUR/CHF at 1.2012 in late trade, not far from the Swiss National Bank’s 1.20 exchange rate cap against the single currency.
Swiss franc has strengthened against the euro in recent sessions ahead
of a vote later this month which could force the central bank to
increase its gold holdings, a move which could restrict its ability to
cap the value of the franc against the euro.
In the week ahead,
investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal
Reserve’s October meeting and Thursday’s report on the U.S. consumer
price index. A report on U.K. inflation and euro zone data on private
sector activity will also be closely watched.
Monday, November 17
Tuesday, November 18
Wednesday, November 19
Thursday, November 20
Friday, November 21
AUD/USD weekly outlook: November 17 - 21
The Australian dollar bounced back from earlier losses to settle at a
two-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as a round of
profit-taking sent the greenback sliding.
hit a daily low of 0.8649 on Friday, before turning 0.48% higher to
subsequently consolidate at 0.8759 by close of trade, the highest since
October 31. The pair rose 1.43% on the week.The pair is likely to find support at 0.8649, Friday's low, and resistance at 0.8843, the high from October 31.The
U.S. dollar was boosted after the Commerce Department reported that
U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in October, ahead of forecasts for a 0.2%
increase.The greenback trimmed gains after separate data showed
that U.S. inflation expectations fell in an otherwise upbeat report on
consumer confidence for this month.The preliminary reading of
the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to a seven
year high of 89.4, better than forecasts of 87.5 and up from October’s
reading of 86.9.However, the report also showed that consumers
expected annual inflation of 2.6% this year, down from expectations for
inflation of 2.9% in October.The US dollar index,
which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six
major currencies, was down 0.25% to 87.61 in late trade, not far from
the more than four-year highs of 88.36 hit earlier in the session.In
the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of
the Federal Reserve’s October meeting and Thursday’s report on the U.S.
consumer price index.Monday, November 17