Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and Dollar Index: U.S. Jobless Claims
2017-03-09 13:30 GMT | [USD - Unemployment Claims]
if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
From business-standard article:
Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events
USD/JPY M5: 44 pips range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Indicators: MACD Histogram, multi-color
Sergey Golubev, 2014.06.19 12:01
By comparing EMAs of different lengths the MACD can help to identify
subtle changes in the trend and momentum of a security. It is a great
visual representation of the acceleration or rate of change in a trend.
How to Calculate a MACD
Indicators: MACD Divergence
Sergey Golubev, 2014.01.28 07:59
What is the MACD Indicator? How do I use it? (based on dailyforex article)
One of the most common technical indicators that is used by day traders
in the financial markets can be seen in the Moving Average Convergence
Divergence -- more commonly referred to as the MACD. But one mistake
that many new traders make is that they will simply start using this
indicator without really understanding how it functions or makes its
calculations. This can lead to costly mistakes that should have been
completely avoidable. So, it makes sense to study the logic and
calculations behind the MACD (and all other indicators) in order to more
accurately configure your day trading positions and generate gains on a
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Defined
Anyone with any experience in the forex markets and in technical
analysis strategies has likely heard a great deal about the Moving
Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). But what exactly does the MACD
tell us -- and how is it calculated? Without an understanding of these
areas, it can be difficult to see trading signals as they emerge. Here,
will deconstruct the MACD indicator and explain how and why it is
“In its most basic form,” said Haris Constantinou, markets analyst, “the
MACD is a momentum indicator that is designed to follow existing trends
and find new ones.” The MACD does this by showing the differences and
relationships between a two-level combination of moving averages and
price activity itself.
To determine and calculate the MACD, we must subtract a 26 period
Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from a 12 period EMA. Then, a 9 period
EMA of the MACD is plotted, and this becomes the Signal Line for the
indicator. The Signal Line is plotted over the MACD and this will be
used as the trigger reading for trading signals (both buy signals and
sell signals). These elements form the basis of the MACD construction,
and it is important to have a strong understanding of these elements if
you plan on using the indicator in your daily trading.
Three Common Approaches to the MACD
Now that we understand the basics of how the MACD is calculated, it is a
good idea to look at some of the common ways that the MACD is viewed by
traders so that we can get a sense of how exactly the indicator is used
to identify trading opportunities. There are a few different ways the
indicator can be interpreted, and the three of the most common methods
proven to be the most effective for traders include
Dollar Index Ahead of NFP (adapted from the article)
Dollar Index H4 chart. The price is located above 200 SMA in the bullish area for the ranging within 102.24/101.70 support/resistance levels waiting for the bullish trend to be resuned or for the secondary correction to be started. Stoch indicator/s value is showing overbought market condition so we are forecasting 2 main scenarios for the intra-day price movement during/after NPF:
Dax Index - ranging with the bullish trend to be resumed (adapted from the article)
Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the price: symmetric triangle pattern was crossed by the price to above for the bullish trend to be continuing with 12,099 resistance level.
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD, BTC/USD and Brent Crude Oil: Non-Farm Payrolls
2017-03-10 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
From official report:
EUR/USD M5: 45 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events
GBP/USD M5: 42 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events
BTC/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events
Brent Crude Oil M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events
Dow Jones Industrial Average - Trading Strategies For The 5 Best Performing Dow Stocks (based on the article)
Daily price is located above Ichimku cloud for the bullish ranging within 21,169 resistance level and 20,777 support level for the waiting for the bullish trend to be resumed or to the secondary correction to be started.
Weekly Outlook: 2017, March 12 - March 19 (based on the article)
The US dollar ended the week on the back foot despite the upcoming rate hike. Apart from the Fed decision, we have rate decisions also in the UK and Japan, US consumer confidence and housing data, and lots more. These are the main events on forex calendar for this week.
Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, March 12 - March 19 (based on the article)
EUR/USD managed to edge up as the ECB expressed some cautious optimism. Another appearance by Draghi as well as inflation and trade figures stand out in the upcoming week.
Dollar Index - "Markets are forward looking and speculatively motivated. This is where the ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ saying originates. We should consider this heavy skew heading into the new trading week. We may consider the Fed decision a far more influential event relative to the NFPs, but financial media prominence does not change the interpretation the market will make of the news. A rate hike alone is already expected. Furthermore, we can tell from rates markets that there is considerable speculation of a further two to three hikes through the rest of the year. While it is possible to further shift expectations towards four hikes in 2017 – which is not fully appreciated – the need for conviction is high and the traction it would offer is comparably marginal. Where the Dollar still has the advantage on growth and yield potential, its premium doesn’t seem to be growing. It may in fact be shrinking. Unless full-scale risk aversion revives the USD’s appeal as an absolute haven, its unchallenged bull trend may be challenged."
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