Forecast and levels for Oil - page 3

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.28 08:29

Crude Oil - daily ranging bearish; 44.34 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within 44.34 support and 47.73 resistance:

• if the price breaks 44.34 support level on close daily bar so the bearish trend will be resumed;
• if the price breaks 47.73 resistance level to above on close bar so the rally will be started;
• if not so the price will be in bearish ranging within the levels.

• "Crude Oil price rose for the fourth consecutive day on Tuesday that provides hope that we could see a long overdue mean-reversion move. The fourth consecutive daily rise in price would be the first in a month, and traders will look to inventory data on Wednesday from the EIA for validation that draws are persisting despite the rise in supply. On Friday, traders were met with the 23rd week of an increase in activated oil rigs in the US per Baker Hughes International, but the sellers did not control the day."
• "From an Intermarket Analysis perspective, the price of Crude Oil may have further support as the US Dollar took a dip against the EUR as ECB President; Mario Draghi shared a positive outlook and took EUR/USD above 1.13 for the first time this year. While a weaker USD could help, it is worth noting that Oil is likely retracing after working on the worst performing June since 1988."

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.28 19:06

Currency/pairs correlated with Brent Crude Oil (based on the article)

• "The decline in crude oil is depressing many currencies and the weakness is particularly obvious in commodity-linked currencies such as Norwegian crown and the Canadian dollar."
• "The Canadian dollar is down to a three and half-month month low to C1.3165 to the dollar."
• "The Norwegian crown declined to a 5-month low of 8.5456 crown to each dollar as crude oil continues to slide."
• "The New Zealand dollar has declined 0.1% to $0.7332 and Australian dollar (AUD) declined 0.2% to $0.7562."

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.29 10:05

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) - ranging bearish; 42.03 is the key (based on the article)

Weekly price is located inside Ichimoku cloud to be ranging near and above Senkou Span line and 42.03 support level which are the virtual border beeen the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. if the price breaks 42.03 support level to below on close weekly bar so the bearish reversal will be started, otherwise - ranging bearish to be inside the cloud.

• "Inventories did see a bump higher, but the jump was +0.1% while Cushing, Oklahoma inventories (the largest delivery stock in the US) fell for the sixth straight week. A cause of concern that was raised on Wednesday was a Dallas Fed Survey showing Oil executives expect supply to remain abundant relative to demand until H2 2018."
• "There are two developments in the oil market that you should consider that could precede an aggressive move higher as the calendar shifts to H2 2017. First, ICE Futures Europe data shows short positions in Brent are at their highest levels since record keeping began in 2011. While this does not immediately indicate a rally, a further move higher in oil prices would likely encourage a violent short-covering rally though resistance from $48-$50/bbl is expected to hold."

[Sergey Golubev]

Just some continuation related to CAD with Oil:

• "The main reason behind the unchecked drop in crude oil prices is that the supply of oil in circulation is more than the demand.  OPEC is working hard to find a way reduce the supply of oil the market but the resilience of U.S. shale oil producers has almost rendered OPEC's efforts null and void."
• "The decline in crude oil is depressing many currencies and the weakness is particularly obvious in commodity-linked currencies such as Norwegian crown and the Canadian dollar. For instance, the Canadian dollar is down to a three and half-month month low to C1.3165 to the dollar."

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.01 13:19

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Brent Crude Oil (based on the article)

Brent Crude Oil - "The EIA’s monthly update showed U.S. production narrowed to 9.08M b/d from 9.1M b/din March, with the slowdown led by a 5.8% contraction in the Gulf of Mexico. The recent downtick in U.S. output may keep oil afloat in July, but a broader look at the data set instills a long-term bearish outlook for energy prices especially as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) remains unwilling to implement deeper production cuts."

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.08 17:15

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)

Crude Oil - "US crude oil continues to fall, and is likely to fall further, as shale companies continue to increase production to near-record levels. After rallying sharply on Thursday on news of a larger-than-expected drawdown in oil inventories, US crude gave back all of its gains and currently trades at a two-week low around $44.51/brl. Crude is also nearly $3 lower than Wednesdays high of $47.35/brl."

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.12 07:55

Crude Oil - daily rally; 49.15 is the key (based on the article)

Brent Crude Oil price on daily chart is on the local uptrend as the secondary rally to be started by 48.28 resistance level breaking to above with 49.15/50.70 resistance bullish reversal level; as the nearest daily targets.

• "Safe to say that OPEC gatherings are about to get a shade more uncomfortable. On Monday, rumors leaked that Saudi was likely to ask that Libya and Nigeria to cut production as their increased production was overshadowing the intended positive effect of Saudi’s cuts. However, reports from Bloomberg have stated that Saudi Arabia itself is reporting to OPEC officials that they pumped 10.07 million bpd in June up from 9.88m in May and exceeding their limit for the first time since the production curb deal they helped broker. Either way, the minimal excess production will likely give Libya and Nigeria reason to state they were justified in overproduction due to high summer demand, but we continue to be a ways off from the hoped for Shock and Awe to scare markets to bid Oil higher."
• "The EIA report that shows new production and legacy decline illustrates that 300-400k bpd is needed from new rigs to help offset retiring legacy rigs. I would argue that as oil stays at depressed levels, projects that had been approved or planned to be implemented will come offline, which over time could help balance the oversupply issue. However, this is not a quick fix, though a natural one, and could mean aside from a ‘Shock & Awe’ moment, we could be in for an early winter in terms of bullish crude oil prospects."

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.13 08:52

Crude Oil - ranging bearish; 49.88/50.72/51.66 resistance levels are the keys (based on the article)

Daily price is on bearish ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

• 49.88/50.72/51.66 resistance located in the beginning of the bullish reversal to be started, and
• 44.34 support located in beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed.

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.

Most likely scenario for the daily price movement in the near future: ranging

• "The Secretary General of OPEC, Mohammad Barkindo, said today that the cartel he oversees, “has broken the ice in reaching out to shale producers in the U.S.” The announcement came as a surprise, since many have assumed that OPEC and shale producers are engaged in a prolonged battle in the oil market. Barkindo revealed that he and key shale oil producers met on the sidelines of this year’s World Petroleum Congress in Istanbul, Turkey."
• "He said the meeting was useful and productive. It is believed that the OPEC and the shale industry began talking in March at CERAWeek, an annual energy conference in Houston. Reports are that OPEC seeks further, more serious conversations with U.S. shale producers."

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.16 10:26

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)

Crude Oil - "While Crude Oil rose this week to the tune of ~5%, there were other factors that caught the attention of investors like the surprisingly weak US CPI on Friday, which shows how difficult of a job the Fed has a head of themselves. It is important to note that a key component of inflation is energy, but we could may still be a respectable distance away from seeing crude put upside pressure on inflation measures."

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.20 10:15

Brent Crude Oil - bear market rally to the daily bullish reversal; 49.88 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is on bear market rally by Senkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator to be testing for the reversal to the primary bullish market condition. If the price breaks ascending triangle pattern to above together with 49.88 resistance level on daily close bar so the bullish reversal will be started with 54.64 nearest level as the daily re-enter target; ottherwise - ranging bearish within the levels.

• "On Wednesday, after the EIA released the data that Crude Inventories declined by 4.73m barrels and that Saudi was delivering less crude, holding true to their comittment may act as a force for higher prices. Of course, as we continue to see in Friday’s Baker Hughes data, UUS production continues to push higher and acts as a road block for a significant price recovery. However, as we see increased gasoline demand (+2.1% YoY), a weaker USD and an overall supportive report from the EIA, it’s worth it to keep an eye on the charts to see if a breakout could be in the works. "
• "There are a handful of technical highlights to watch for that would act as catalysts for a Bullish recovery if the price exceeds. First, the opening range high for the 2nd half of 2017 (first two weeks of July) sits $47.29, Second, the combination of the daily Ichimoku Cloud and Bearish price channel (downward sloping – red) align near $48.20-$47.50. Lastly, the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the May to June range rests at $48.20. A break above the zone $47.29-$48.20 on a daily closing basis should be watched to combine with a desperately awaited Oil recovery."
• "While the dots may be in place to be connected, it’s worth noting that without a price recovery, these points mentioned above (Saudi cutting back on US exports, increased Gasoline demand, 4.7m barrel inventory draw), remain unfulfilled anecdotes to a Bullish thesis. Lastly, we have seen a strong move off long-term support, which could also show that should a break above $48.20 develop, a base may be set. Maybe. A reversal lower from resistance would turn attention back to long-term support at $43.50/42 per barrel."